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So how does this end? And how long will it take to end it?

Those are the questions towering over the new House Republican majority, which for the first time in 100 years found itself unable to choose a speaker on the first ballot — or two others afterward.

The House is now paralyzed, unable to swear in its members or form committees or adopt rules — let alone pass legislation. And the scary realization for the GOP rank and file is that there’s no easy way out of this mess and no sign that one is going to appear anytime soon.

Fact is, while this fight is over KEVIN McCARTHY, it’s about way more than Kevin McCarthy. Disagreement over governing tactics started brewing when JOHN BOEHNER was speaker and only escalated after PAUL RYAN succeeded him. DONALD TRUMP’s election to the White House papered over those differences for a time and delayed a climactic showdown between the conservative hardliners eager to make fundamental change in Washington and the party leaders who see anarchy in their demands.

That showdown is now here, and after an overnight recess, it will continue on the House floor at noon today. But will anything change?

If so, it’s not obvious this morning. McCarthy insisted to reporters Tuesday night he would stay in the race, while continuing to woo the holdouts he’s been unable to win over for weeks (if not years) already. His opponents, meanwhile, are vowing to stand strong even as their GOP colleagues rain opprobrium upon them.

After centrist Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) was quoted referring to the hard-right faction as the “Taliban 20,” Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) shot back on Twitter: “Well….as hurtful and false as that is….I too am prepared for an extended battle that I will ultimately win.”

Indeed, at this point, it’s difficult to see a path to the gavel for McCarthy. As we reported Monday, his detractors have privately indicated that their lack of trust in him outweighs any rules, policy or personnel concession that he can offer. And one potential off-ramp McCarthy laid out Tuesday night — convincing a swath of members to vote “present,” lowering the victory threshold — is, shall we say, speculative at best.

As for his critics: Any hopes McCarthy allies had that they would ultimately cower under the spotlight have fizzled. Instead, the 19 who initially voted against him dug in — and, in fact, scored a symbolic victory on the third ballot Tuesday by convincing McCarthy-backing Rep. BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.) to join their ranks.

While some of those detractors huddled with McCarthy allies Tuesday night to see if they could find a way out of this mess, others spent their evening calling fellow Republicans to see if they could peel off more McCarthy votes.

So back to those big questions … How does this end, and when? Here’s four things to watch today:

1. Can McCarthy show any progress? Many Republicans privately tell us that the longer these votes go, the more likely it is that McCarthy will bleed support. Donalds set the tone Tuesday, tweeting “these continuous votes aren’t working for anyone” after switching his vote.

Changing the momentum, however, is going to require a change of message. A defiant McCarthy argued to his members Tuesday that he’d “earned” the speakership through his performance as a party leader. But the argument rang hollow to his foes — and may have privately angered some other rank-and-file members. We’re reminded of something one aide to a McCarthy ally told us recently: “You’re not entitled to the speakership.”

As he left the Capitol on Tuesday night, the GOP leader hinted at a new strategy — trying to convince some of his detractors to vote “present” instead of backing another candidate. “You get 213 votes, and the others don't say another name, that's how you can win,” he told reporters, per The Hill’s Emily Brooks. His critics, however, aren’t inclined to let him off that easily. Gaetz told our Sarah Ferris that McCarthy's plan was "so absurd that it's embarrassing you're asking me the question.”

2. Will conservative media give McCarthy a helping hand — or boost his opponents? If there was any heartening sign for the GOP leader Tuesday night, it was the relatively positive treatment he got from Fox News’ primetime hosts. TUCKER CARLSON, typically a fierce McCarthy critic, took a few jabs at the “ideologically agnostic” leader but also threw him a lifeline by suggesting he could still win over conservatives by making two key concessions. LAURA INGRAHAM, meanwhile, grilled McCarthy critic Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) about his cadre’s endgame: "Would you rather have a coalition where you could be in the minority opposing the Democrats, yes or no?"

And SEAN HANNITY made a full-throated case for McCarthy, arguing that the speakership fiasco was bad for the party and threatened the House GOP’s plans to investigate the Biden administration and uncover malfeasance in the FBI and other agencies. “This is not a big deal as of today,” he said. “But if this fight goes on and on … and the Republican agenda totally stalls out, you can forget about holding [the Biden administration] accountable pretty much for anything.”

3. Will Trump step forward for McCarthy or back away entirely? Back in mid-December, Trump told Breitbart he supported McCarthy for the position, and even warned GOP holdouts they could trigger a “doomsday scenario” if they revolted. On Monday night, as hard-liners prepared to dig in their heels, Trump called McCarthy wanting to check in, a person familiar with the conversation told our colleague Meridith McGraw.

But as McCarthy floundered on the House floor Tuesday, Trump notably said nothing. In a brief evening phone call with NBC’s Garrett Haake, Trump refused to say if he was sticking by his endorsement of McCarthy, merely offering up a measured, “We’ll see what happens.” Trump and McCarthy spoke again Tuesday night, and McCarthy told reporters Trump had reiterated his support. But Trump didn’t mention McCarthy at all on Truth Social, his direct pipeline to his base. Instead, he complained about “unnecessary turmoil in the Republican Party” and pointed blame elsewhere.

4. Will McCarthy’s allies start showing him the door? Republicans are privately buzzing that if the GOP leader can’t show progress, someone will have to step in for a come-to-Jesus moment. Such a person, the thinking goes, would have to be someone he might listen to — a vocal McCarthy backer, perhaps, who expresses a reluctant change of heart. But it’s anyone’s guess when that will happen. Today? Tomorrow? Next week? Next month?

FRONT PAGES —NYT: “FAR RIGHT BLOCKS PATH OF McCARTHY TO HOUSE SPEAKER” … WaPo: “House fails to elect a new speaker” … WSJ: “McCarthy Fails In Three Votes On Speaker Bid” … LAT: “McCarthy fails in 3 votes to be speaker” … NY Post: “GROW UP! Small group of Republican saboteurs blocks McCarthy from taking power”

TOP READS —“After Another Failed Vote, McCarthy’s Speaker Bid Is Starting to Look Pathetic,” by John F. Harris: “Kevin McCarthy, whatever the outcome of this contest in coming hours or days, can rest assured he has earned a legacy — as a symbol of pathos and ineffectuality, an emblem of the cannibalistic spirit of the age.”

— “Kevin McCarthy wasn’t ‘the one’ 7 years ago. He wasn’t on Tuesday, either,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane: “His support has always been a mile wide and only a few inches deep inside the Republican conference. A solid bloc of 15 to 20 hard-line conservatives never took to his back slaps or invites to go on bike rides. They saw in him what he essentially is: a nonideological lawmaker without much policy substance who really just enjoys political campaigns and tactics.”

— “'Circular firing squad' derails GOP in new Congress,” by Burgess Everett: “Several GOP senators expressed confidence that, eventually, McCarthy would prevail. Still, there was an unmistakable feeling among Senate Republicans that even from the minority, tight margins in the fractious House may force them to play a leadership role for the GOP in the next two years.”

— “Cash can't buy McCarthy speakership,” by Axios’ Lachlan Markay: “McCarthy's leadership PAC, dubbed the Majority Committee, has donated to the campaigns of 17 of the 20 members who voted against him in the first three speaker ballots on Tuesday. … All told, the Majority Committee has given $313,500 to those 17 members since 2008.”

—“3 strikes for McCarthy — but he's not out yet,” by Sarah Ferris, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney … “The ‘23 20: The Republicans who bucked McCarthy’s speaker bid,” by Anthony Adragna and Nancy Vu … “Biden world both humored and terrified by McCarthy meltdown,” by Eli Stokols and Nicholas Wu

Good Wednesday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. If you’re one of the McCarthy rebels who knows something — or a McCarthy confidant up to speed on his next moves — drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

ALL POLITICS

CASH DASH — “Trump seems to have a large war chest – but is he struggling to raise money?” by The Guardian’s Tom Perkins: “[H]is Pacs and committees boast a war chest of about $95m, enough to give pause to the Republican candidates jockeying against him. But a scratch beneath the surface reveals a different reality. About $78m of the $95m cannot be directly used for Trump’s campaign, according to a Guardian analysis of the Trump fundraising web. What’s more, there’s evidence the small-dollar donor stream that fueled his past runs is drying up. Some high-profile mega-donors have fled.”

2024 WATCH — In his first speech after being sworn in to a second term, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS toggled between a statewide and national focus, the Miami Herald’s Mary Ellen Klas and Emily Mahoney report. He continued to hammer “woke”-ism and positioned Florida as a freer alternative to other states. DeSantis made no mention of Trump and emphasized issues crucial to the GOP base, without delving too much into specifics.

SPOTTED at DeSantis’ inauguration in Tallahassee: Jeb Bush, Bill Rubin, Scott Parkinson,Adam Hasner, Adam Laxalt, Gay Gaines, Tim Cerio, Benny Johnson, Glenn Beck (whose Bible DeSantis used), Lisa Boothe, Kevin Roberts, Katie Pavlich, Mike Haridopolos and Jessica Anderson.

POLL POSITION — Gallup’s latest survey finds Americans feeling down about the country’s prospects this year: 79% expect economic difficulty instead of prosperity, 90% predict political conflict rather than cooperation, and nearly two-thirds anticipate American power declining on the world stage.

THE PRIMARY LINEUP — “Early South Carolina primary gets backing from former Dem presidential staffers,” by Elena Schneider: “Fourteen former South Carolina state directors for 2020 Democratic presidential primary candidates signed a letter, obtained first by POLITICO, affirming their support for South Carolina to make the jump into first place — arguing that the move elevates Black voters who are the ‘backbone of our party.’”

CONGRESS

MILESTONE MARKER — A tennis-shoe-clad Sen. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.) became the first female Senate president pro tempore in history Tuesday — and, with no House speaker yet, temporarily second in line to the presidency. “When I was elected, it was called ‘the year of the woman,’ and we were six. And I think a lot of the men, although they wouldn’t tell you this, were just sort of like, ‘Oh my God, what are those women going to do when they’re here?’” Murray reflected to WaPo’s Liz Goodwin. “And I think over time we have earned the respect of not only them but people around the country that we are serious about our roles.”

“‘Good riddance’: In first act in power, Republicans remove metal detectors from the House chamber,” Roll Call

“Advocacy groups denounce GOP proposals to ‘gut’ ethics office,” Roll Call

THE WHITE HOUSE

COMING ATTRACTIONS — “Biden to Meet With Japan’s Kishida at White House Next Week,” Bloomberg

JUDICIARY SQUARE

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Daughter of former national intelligence director convicted of murder,” by WaPo’s Dan Morse: “[A] video, recorded on a body camera worn by an officer in Rockville, Md., captured the cries of SOPHIA NEGROPONTE, the daughter of former U.S. director of national intelligence JOHN NEGROPONTE. Her trial in the killing of YOUSUF RASMUSSEN, 24, concluded Tuesday when jurors found her guilty of second-degree murder — punishable by up to 40 years in prison.”

“Biden, Senate Democrats gear up to prioritize judges in 2023,” Reuters

“Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to federal fraud charges in New York,” CNBC

POLICY CORNER

BIG ABORTION MOVE — The FDA quietly made a change Tuesday to allow retail pharmacies like CVS to sell abortion pills — a major step that “could significantly expand access to abortion through medication,” NYT’s Pam Belluck scooped. Now, mifepristone will be available — once a woman gets a prescription — at corner drugstores, not just through the mail or at specialty clinics.

— Meanwhile, the U.S. Postal Service can still deliver abortion pills by mail, DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel said Tuesday, per Reuters. The opinion found that providing mifepristone and misoprostol through the mail didn’t run afoul of the 1873 Comstock Act. The opinion

IMMIGRATION FILES — DHS announced a proposal Tuesday to more than triple the primary fee for a company to sponsor an H-1B visa, to help fund U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and avoid major fee increases for humanitarian programs or citizenship applications, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports. The employment-based visas are commonly used in tech, finance, academia and other high-skilled areas.

WHAT ELIZABETH WARREN IS READING — “A win for corporate raiders,” by Semafor’s Liz Hoffman: “U.S. rules governing how activist hedge funds and hostile bidders can accumulate stock positions in secret haven’t been meaningfully changed since 1968. Now, the Securities and Exchange Commission is finalizing reforms and likely to back off its most far-reaching proposals … That retreat would hand a win to investors like BILL ACKMAN and CARL ICAHN, and their brokers on Wall Street.”

MUSK READS

AD AGE — Twitter is planning to start allowing political ads on the platform once again after a ban for the past four years, the company announced Tuesday. Issue-based ad restrictions are being relaxed immediately, while the change for politicians will arrive in the weeks to come. Twitter, of course, is desperate to claw back some ad revenue right now after advertisers departed in droves under ELON MUSK’s chaotic new stewardship. More from Insider

THE TWITTER FILES — Matt Taibbi has the latest installment gaining traction on the right: “Twitter and the FBI ‘Belly Button’”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Videos show both sides of U.S.-China aerial encounter – and highlight the risks involved,” by CNN’s Brad Lendon: “The interception of a United States Air Force reconnaissance jet by a Chinese fighter over the South China Sea last month should be seen as a potential warning of how easily, and quickly things can go terribly wrong – raising the risk of a deadly military confrontation between the two powers, analysts say.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

SPEAKER YOUR MIND — Congress went home without a House speaker Tuesday, but two statehouses saw surprising cross-partisan coalitions form to tap unexpected speaker picks:

— Ohio: In Columbus, all Democrats in the minority banded with about one-third of Republicans to elevate GOP state Rep. JASON STEPHENS to speaker, even though GOP state Rep. DEREK MERRIN had previously won his party’s caucus vote. Though both men are conservative, Merrin would have pushed even further right, especially on labor issues. More from the Cleveland Plain Dealer

— Pennsylvania: Harrisburg has seen weeks of turmoil, after Democrats narrowly flipped the state House in November but had fewer members present than Republicans due to one death and two members winning higher office. The surprise bipartisan conclusion Tuesday: Democrats joined forces with more than a dozen Republicans to pick moderate Democratic state Rep. MARK ROZZI as speaker. Rozzi said he would govern as an independent. More from the Philly Inquirer

HATE IN AMERICA — “A family finds swastikas in the lawn as antisemitism surges,” by WaPo’s Danielle Paquette: “The torrent of hate speech sweeping internet talk shows and social media is eroding the sense of safety for Jewish people across the United States.”

THE NEW CENSORSHIP — “Muzzled by DeSantis, Critical Race Theory Professors Cancel Courses or Modify Their Teaching,” by ProPublica’s Daniel Golden

On the House floor Tuesday …

Greg Pencebottle fed a baby.

Ryan Zinkewore a cowboy hat.

Paul Gosar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezdiscussed opposition strategy.

Exhaustion set in for some guests.

Yvette Clarke called Hakeem Jeffries “the bad, brilliant brother from Brooklyn.”

Ritchie Torres voted for “the master of alliteration — the cerebral, cool, calm and collected Hakeem Jeffries.”

Nicole Malliotakis voted “No matter how many times it takes, Kevin McCarthy.”

Richard Hudson cast his first vote for “Judy McCarthy’s husband, Kevin.”

Meanwhile …

Fox News had a different priority during the first round of votes.

Robert Garcia will be sworn in to office on an original Superman #1 from the Library of Congress.

Derrick Van Ordenarrived at the Capitol on a Harley.

IN MEMORIAM — “Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Almond dies,” by The Providence Journal’s Tom Mooney: “Almond … spent 20 years as Rhode Island’s top federal prosecutor busting gangsters, money launderers, and corrupt politicians before taking over the state’s helm and promoting honest government and a new economic vision … He was 86.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party and concert for Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) Tuesday night at Union Stage: House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Reps. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) and Reps.-elect Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Val Hoyle (D-Ore.).

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Brett Fulcer is joining Brumidi Group as VP, based in Denver. He most recently was a professional staff member for the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

NEW FELLOWS — The National Press Foundation named this year’s crop of 20 young journalists in the Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellowship, including friends of Playbook Eleanor Mueller at POLITICO and Matthew Choi at the Texas Tribune.

NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new nominations, including Ana Escrogima as ambassador to Oman, Jean Elizabeth Manes as ambassador to Colombia, Ervin Massinga as ambassador to Ethiopia, Yael Lempert as ambassador to Jordan, Stephanie Syptak-Ramnath as ambassador to Peru and Dorothy Shea as deputy U.S. representative to the U.N.

MEDIA MOVE — Mariah Timms is joining the WSJ as national legal affairs reporter. She previously reported on the intersection of the justice system and daily life for the Tennessean.

TRANSITIONS — Douglas Letter is now chief legal officer at Brady, the anti-gun violence group. He previously was general counsel for the House. … Michael Hardaway is now a managing director at Mercury. He previously was senior adviser to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and head of comms for the House Democratic Caucus. … Amelia Joy is now press secretary for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. She previously was regional analytics coordinator at the RNC. …

… Josue Ambriz is now a congressional liaison specialist at the FAA. He previously was a professional staff member with the House Aviation Subcommittee. … Ben Weingrod is now director of policy and advocacy at Management Sciences for Health. He most recently was senior director for policy at Foreign Policy for America. … Andrew Mamo is now deputy chief of staff and comms director for Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.).

ENGAGED — Josh Hammer, opinion editor at Newsweek and host of “The Josh Hammer Show,” proposed to Shir Cohen, a graduate student in real estate development and urbanism at the University of Miami, two weeks ago at the Western Wall in Jerusalem, as part of a trip through Israel, the UAE and Egypt. They met in Miami and live nearby in South Florida. Pics

— Jordan Wiggins, a political consultant who was campaign manager for J.D. Vance’s Ohio Senate campaign, and Maggie Mulvaney, a senior adviser to Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) and a Trump campaign alum, got engaged Dec. 21. He proposed on the balcony of Neuschwanstein Castle (the inspiration for Disneyland's Sleeping Beauty Castle) on a trip to Germany for Christmas. They met at a mutual friend’s wedding.Pic … Another pic

WEEKEND WEDDING — Charlton Boyd, director of executive operations at the Jared Kushner private equity firm Affinity Partners, and Ariella Campana, who runs her own consulting firm called The Ariella, got married on New Year’s Eve at St. Patrick’s Church in New Orleans. They were both West Wing staffers in the Trump White House and met while Charlton was eating the famous fro-yo at the Navy Mess. Pic, via Hannah Mire Photography … Pic of Team Trump attendees … SPOTTED: Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, Avi Berkowitz, Brooke Rollins, Miguel Correa, and Nick and Cassidy Luna.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Tim Farnsworth, VP of marketing, comms and organization effectiveness at the Project on Government Oversight, and Stacey Farnsworth, first grade teacher at Capitol Hill Day School, recently welcomed Tyler Price Farnsworth. Pic

WELCOME HOME — Todd Gillenwater, senior director of government affairs at Medtronic, and Gabrielle Gillenwater, a substitute teacher in Montgomery County, Md., Public Schools, adopted an 8-year-old son, Plamen Theodore, and 4-year-old daughter, Ani Rose, in Bulgaria on Dec. 14. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Doris Kearns Goodwin … NBC’s Ben Mayer … Amos Hochstein (5-0) … Rob Gifford of CBS News Streaming … POLITICO’s David Kihara and Caitlin Emma … Axios’ Adriel Bettelheim … WaPo’s Jill Martin … Alex Campau of Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies … Indiana GOP Chair Kyle Hupfer … Nan Aron … Jim Warren of NewsGuard … Courtney Piron of Novartis … Doug Campbell … Erin Moffet … Patrick Purtill … Marie Sanderson … Chip Kahn of the Federation of American Hospitals … Jeremy Funk … Marc Brumer of the Herald Group … Eric Cortellessa … Emily Samsel of the League of Conservation Voters … Joshua Zeitz … C-SPAN’s Michele Remillard … Anthony Terrell … Blue State’s Chris Huntley … Belén Mendoza … Gabby Birenbaum … Greg Smith of Rep.-elect Eli Crane’s (R-Ariz.) office … Samantha Slosberg … Audrey (Hickenlooper) White … Andy Borowitz … Peter Schorsch … Casey Kasprzyk

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter misidentified the organization that awards the Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellowship. It is the National Press Foundation.

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter misidentified the name of the Disney castle inspired by Germany's Neuschwanstein Castle.