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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

There’s no way to sugarcoat this: Seven years after his last, failed bid for the speakership, KEVIN McCARTHY’s dreams of wielding the gavel are again in peril. Despite years of political contortions aimed at winning over his critics on the far right, with just over 24 hours left until the critical floor vote, the California Republican’s math problem is getting worse, not better.

On Sunday evening, McCarthy announced on a private conference call that he would give his antagonists one of their top demands: The threshold to trigger a vote ousting a speaker would shrink from half the GOP conference, as had been agreed to by a majority of the members, to five dissatisfied lawmakers. But hours later, a group of nine House conservatives issued a letter saying that’s not good enough.

That’s in addition to the five “Never Kevin” lawmakers who have already declared they’re opposing McCarthy. (Remember: He can lose only four votes if all House members cast votes Tuesday.)

But this morning, we can report that that’s not even the worst of it. We caught up Sunday with one of the GOP fence-sitters, a member who has been in the room for these negotiations. And he told us that some of these undecided members won’t support McCarthy — even if he gives them everything they want.

“The problem is people don’t trust Kevin McCarthy and a number won’t vote for him. Those are just the facts,” this lawmaker told us. “The list [of demands] that we offered was not for guaranteed support but rather the kinds of things that might move some of his detractors.”

That’s a huge issue for McCarthy — one that his allies told us days ago they’re worried about. Notably, on the conference call Sunday, McCarthy repeatedly dodged questions from his own rank and file about whether his proposed “motion to vacate” change would even get him the votes.

It won’t, as the missive from the nine conservatives demonstrated Sunday night. And it’s unclear what more McCarthy can give them to change their minds before voting begins.

More newsy tidbits from this well-placed source …

• McCarthy’s doubters are preparing to deflect blame for the morass onto the GOP leader himself. “[McCarthy] failed to produce the kind of majority to make us irrelevant,” this member said. “He’d like it to be our problem; it’s his problem. The real question should be: Why is he dragging the country and the Congress through this?”
  
• McCarthy’s strategy of squeezing the holdouts, with attacks from high-profile conservatives on one side and threats from moderates to gang up with Democrats on the other, have backfired. The threats were simply not credible, the member said:  “Pressuring people and threatening people is never a good idea.”
  
• The doubters are already talking to GOP centrists about a unity candidate. “You have to be responsible and say, ‘Well if he’s not going to get the votes, what alternatives are out there?’” the member said, citing conversations with members of the Republican Governance Group (formerly the Tuesday Group). There’s no agreement at this point; centrist members continue to adamantly support McCarthy. But the fact that these lines of communication are open is notable.

McCarthy allies insist, despite it all, he’s going to get there — though at the moment, that optimism belies reality. On Sunday night on the conference call, McCarthy told his members he was “slowly” moving in the right direction, per CNN’s Mel Zanona and Lauren Fox. We’ll see.

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH THIS WEEK:

1. Can Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) deliver McCarthy the gavel? More so than DONALD TRUMP, who has largely failed to convince MAGA Republicans to back McCarthy, the House Freedom Caucus co-founder could be the only person who can get through to the detractors. We’ve been watching Jordan stump for McCarthy on Fox News and other conservative outlets, arguing that he deserves the gavel.

One McCarthy ally told us Jordan’s support has been instrumental in giving him cover back home. “I’m in a very conservative district. They say, ‘Why are you voting for Kevin?’” the lawmaker said. “I say, ‘Well, Jim Jordan is voting for McCarthy.’ And then they back off.”

2. How low can McCarthy go — on the motion to vacate? He may have agreed to the five-member threshold, but will he give in to conservatives pushing to restore a single-member trigger that had been in place for two centuries? And if he does, will it make a difference?

As our ace Hill duo Olivia Beavers and Sarah Ferris reported Sunday night, Rep.-elect MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y.) asked Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) on Sunday’s conference call if he would back McCarthy in return for a one-member trigger: “Gaetz replied by noting McCarthy wouldn’t agree to that. … McCarthy said he’d like to hear Gaetz’s answer, but Gaetz — one of his most fervent opponents — said he’d think about it.”

3. How long can McCarthy fight until his conference moves on? The GOP leader has indicated he is prepared to force multiple votes — something that hasn’t occurred since 1923, when it took nine ballots to elect Speaker FREDERICK GILLETT. But there’s no guarantee McCarthy’s base of support will hold strong indefinitely.

The McCarthy drama is threatening to turn what should be a day of triumph for Republicans into a day of chaos — and they’ll only stomach that for so long. “We’re supposed to be hitting the ground running here, but instead it’s just a big belly flop,” one GOP lawmaker who is supporting McCarthy recently told us. “Believe me, it’s not just members of the Freedom Caucus who are aggravated. As the days and hours trickle on, the more aggravated people become.”

TOP-ED — “A Failed Speaker Vote for Kevin McCarthy Would Be a Historical Event,” by BRENDAN BUCK in the NYT: “If Republicans are unable to muster the votes for a speaker, it will make very clear from the outset they cannot be counted on to fulfill the body’s basic responsibilities, such as funding the government or preventing a credit default by lifting the debt ceiling, both of which will be required later this year.”

Good Monday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Never fear: Playbook PM returns Tuesday, just in time for the speaker vote drama! Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

MORE FROM THE JAN. 6 COMMITTEE — Still more documents were made public Sunday by the House Jan. 6 committee underpinning the panel’s report. Kyle Cheney has a great Twitter thread unwinding some of the most notable finds. They include:

• HOPE HICKS apparently texting JULIE RADFORD, “I’m so mad and upset … We all look like domestic terrorists now.”

• Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) telling CLETA MITCHELL that the Jan. 6 strategy was “a dangerous idea. Not just for the republic itself, but also for the president.”

• Lee texting national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN a voicemail from RUDY GIULIANI, whom he calls “walking malpractice,” that was apparently intended for Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.). Lee begs O’Brien not to resign early.

• Texts between CASSIDY HUTCHINSON and TONY ORNATO about Trump talking with Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) in December 2020 and wanting to go to the Capitol on Jan. 6.

• Information on D.C. rallies shared by KATRINA PIERSON, including VIPs and participation from members of Congress.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

CONGRESS

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — Rep.-elect GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) looks set to be sworn in to Congress this week, but NYT’s Michael Gold and Grace Ashford are still unraveling more of his apparent lies: They find that his mother was a cook and house cleaner, not a finance executive as he’d claimed. He doesn’t seem to have actually attended Horace Mann. And he admitted committing fraud in a Brazilian clothing shop when he was 19: “I know I screwed up, but I want to pay,” he later wrote in a message.

An ex-boyfriend from 2014 also tells a striking story: They started dating when he was 18 and Santos was 26, but financial issues started to arise and he thought Santos pawned his cellphone. When he looked up Santos online and found that Santos was wanted in Brazil, “I woke up in the morning, and I packed my stuff all in trash bags, and I called my father and I left.”

THE NEW MAJORITY — “Culture wars: House Republicans attack Defense Department for ‘woke’ social policies,” by USA Today’s Rachel Looker and Tom Vanden Brook: “GOP members of military oversight committees in Congress are signaling they’ll target the Pentagon over racial curriculum at military academies, efforts to root out extremists from the ranks, and funding for troops’ abortions. The issue could get an increased focus in this Congress.”

EXIT INTERVIEWS — Sen. PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.) tells NBC’s Scott Wong and Frank Thorp as he leaves Congress that he’s concerned about Trump potentially provoking a constitutional crisis. Still, he says in the profile, “I love being a senator. I cherish this place … It can be, it should be, the conscience of the nation.”

— Other retiring members worry for the institution too, and they’re taking with them decades of crucial institutional knowledge, especially in the upper chamber, NYT’s Emily Cochrane reports. The loss of people like Leahy and Sens. RICHARD SHELBY (R-Ala.), ROY BLUNT (R-Mo.) and RICHARD BURR (R-N.C.) means “lawmakers and aides fear that even the basics of governing will be unattainable, let alone making deals on sprawling, trillion-dollar spending packages or overhauls of outdated legislation.” Rep. CHERI BUSTOS (D-Ill.) “cited the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and the deep psychological wounds it had inflicted on lawmakers and her own family as significant factors in the decision not to seek another term.”

Great detail: “Mr. Burr, notorious for going sockless in the austere Capitol halls, was figuring out what to do with the socks people had given him over the years.”

WHAT PAUL RYAN IS UP TO — “Paul Ryan back where he started with new book and crusade to reform government programs,” by the Washington Examiner’s David Drucker: “Then as now, nobody is listening, least of all his own party. Then as now, none of that seems to matter to Ryan. He sounds as optimistic in 2022 as he did as an audacious young backbencher, first elected to a two-decade House career in 1998, about the prospects that Republicans might embrace his call to rethink and modernize how federal programs for the elderly and the poor operate.”

ALL POLITICS

2024 WATCH — “2024 contest comes into view with hurdles for both parties,” by AP’s Steve Peoples: “Both political parties are opening the new year confronting critical questions about the people and policies they want to embrace as the next election speeds into view. … A central figure in virtually everything is Donald Trump, the former president who transformed the GOP more than seven years ago and is still fighting to exert his will over Republicans in Congress, the RNC and Republican voters just as the next presidential primary season begins.”

Notable nugget: “As for his own 2024 intentions, the 81-year-old [Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.)], who sought the Democratic nomination for president in 2016 and 2020, said it was not the right time to discuss whether he might launch another White House bid. ‘I’ll make a decision at the appropriate time,’ Sanders said. ‘People need to breathe.’”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

THE ONGOING THREAT — Many of the Capitol security failures that made the building vulnerable on Jan. 6 haven’t been redressed, former Capitol Police Chief STEVEN SUND warns in his new book, per WaPo’s Carol Leonnig. In the book publishing Tuesday, “Courage Under Fire” ($18.19), Sund recounts what went wrong and warns that other attacks could happen again thanks to problems with the agency’s structure and systemic intelligence-sharing issues. “Sund said his shock shifted to agony as he unsuccessfully begged military generals for National Guard reinforcement,” Leonnig writes. “Sund reserves his greatest outrage for those Pentagon leaders.”

JUST POSTED — “Ample Jan. 6 Evidence Helps Secure High Conviction Rate in Capitol Riot,” by WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman: “The Justice Department has charged more than 900 people, extracting guilty pleas from at least 450 of them on crimes ranging from unlawfully parading in a Capitol building to assault, obstruction and sedition. … About three dozen cases have gone to trial, and all but one of them have resulted in convictions on at least one count, though prosecutors have lost on other charges. The conviction rate, which includes pleas, is higher than the Justice Department attains across all of its cases.”

TRUMP CARDS

WHAT’S ON THE FORMER PRESIDENT’S MIND — Trump sounded off Sunday on Republicans’ performance in the midterms, writing on Truth Social that he’s not to blame — and staking out some interesting ground on abortion. “It was the ‘abortion issue,’ poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on No Exceptions, even in the case of Rape, Incest, or Life of the Mother, that lost large numbers of Voters,” Trump said. “Also, the people that pushed so hard, for decades, against abortion, got their wish from the U.S. Supreme Court, & just plain disappeared, not to be seen again. Plus, MITCH [McCONNELL] stupid $’s!”

Texas state House Speaker DADE PHELAN was among the Republicans who didn’t take the post well: “GOP has lost control of the Senate THREE cycles in a row & it was not the fault of the pro-life movement. It was your hand picked candidates who underperformed & lost ‘bigly’. May 2023-24 bring the GOP new leadership PROUD to protect the unborn.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s team put out a proud list of his political enemies who left their positions or lost elections — even though several of them, from Massachusetts Gov. CHARLIE BAKER to Rep. JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER (R-Wash.), were succeeded by even more anti-Trump Democrats.

POLICY CORNER

KNOWING DANNY WERFEL — Biden’s pick to lead the IRS has largely worked behind the scenes, including a stint as acting commissioner in 2013. But if Senate Dems can confirm him, he’ll surely become a lightning rod for Republicans. The Long Island native is not a pure tax wonk, but got his start in OMB and is “a bureaucrat-turned-consultant who focuses on government financial management and performance metrics,” WSJ’s Richard Rubin reports. Werfel’s time co-hosting the “GovActually” podcast provides a window into his perspective: “Among the topics he explored in depth: how to be a witness at congressional hearings … Deploy the phrase ‘if you would allow’ to prevent congressional interruptions.”

Rep. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.) remembers Werfel from Obama-era fights: “Would I say that he starts off with one foot on a banana? Absolutely.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

WHAT’S NEW — WSJ’s James Fanelli and ABC’s Ivan Pereira have roundups of some of the most interesting new state laws going into effect around the country in 2023:

• Abortion pills: Tennessee is further limiting their prescription.

• Cash bail: Illinois is seeking to become the first state to eliminate it, though a state Supreme Court challenge could get in the way.

• Paid family leave: Colorado, Maryland, New Hampshire and Oregon will all start taking contributions for new programs this year.

• Data privacy: Major new consumer data laws, a la European Union protections, will be implemented in Colorado, Connecticut, Utah and Virginia.

• Cage-free eggs: Colorado is moving toward banning eggs from caged hens.

CLIMATE FILES — “Soaring Costs Threaten U.S. Offshore-Wind Buildout,” by WSJ’s Katherine Blunt and Jennifer Hiller: “Offshore wind developers are facing financial challenges that threaten to derail several East Coast projects critical to reaching the Biden administration’s near-term clean-energy targets. Supply-chain snarls, rising interest rates and inflationary pressures are making projects far more expensive to build. Now, some developers are looking to renegotiate financing agreements to keep their projects under way.”

MEDIAWATCH

GOOD NEWS — “6 Reasons for optimism about media in 2023,” by Semafor’s Ben Smith: “The big reason for optimism is that the media monoculture is over. … Now, if you look around, you’ll see a varied world of small and medium-sized projects that are just working with audiences. These green shoots range from bespoke print magazines to ambitious local online newsrooms to TikTok accounts raising their journalism games.”

REMEMBERING DAX TEJERA — In the runup to the holidays, the executive producer of ABC’s “This Week” was adamant that despite New Year’s Day landing on a Sunday, the show would go on live — complete with special photo-filled credits honoring those who bring the weekly production to life.

Tragically, Dax Tejera would never see it. He died two days before Christmas of a sudden heart attack at 37. Along with those staff credits, a heartfelt video tribute to Tejera aired on Sunday’s show.

After the program, “This Week” staff gathered in a seventh-floor conference room in ABC News’s Washington headquarters to share memories and appreciations of Tejera — not just as a boss but as a colleague and a friend. They recalled how he mentored students at Dartmouth College, years after he’d graduated. They vowed to stay in touch with his two young daughters, ages 2 and 6 months, to share stories of their pa. And they joked that he entered the pearly gates with some good company this week — the legendary BARBARA WALTERS and Pope BENEDICT XVI — giving him some big names to snag for heavenly interviews.

Read the staff’s tribute to Tejera and watch “This Week’s” video tribute.

ONE DAY YOU’RE IN AND THE NEXT YOU’RE OUT — Roger Stone posted his rundown of the best and worst dressed figures of 2022. On the best list: Melania Trump, Joe Biden (!), Jeanine Pirro and Giorgia Meloni (“not a fascist; she’s a fashionista”). On the worst list: John Fetterman, Jill Biden, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Sam Bankman-Fried, Steve Bannon, Kathy Hochul and Rosa DeLauro.

OUT AND ABOUT — British Ambassador Karen Pierce and Charles Roxburgh hosted a New Year’s Eve party, which featured a dance floor and ended with cigars and scotch outside. SPOTTED: CIA Director Bill Burns, Wendy Sherman, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, USTR Katherine Tai, SteveRicchetti, Bruce Reed, German Ambassador Emily Haber, Swiss Ambassador Jacques Pitteloud, Polish Ambassador Marek Magierowski, French Ambassador Philippe Étienne, EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, Sam Feist, Pamela Brown, Maria Teresa Kumar, Margaret Brennan, Andrea Mitchell, Josh Dawsey, David Sanger, David Ignatius, Sally Quinn, Jeffrey Goldberg, Meridith McGraw, Olivia Beavers and Matt Kaminski.

— SPOTTED at a “Hair of the Dog” brunch that Adrienne Arsht hosted Sunday at her Chevy Chase house: Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Mark Milley, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Tanya Mayorkas, USTR Katherine Tai, Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Gen. Walt Piatt, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, Steve Ricchetti, Andrea Mitchell, Jennifer Griffin, Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, Margaret Brennan, John Sullivan, Fred Kempe, Lloyd Hand, Capricia Marshall, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Australian Ambassador Arthur Sinodinos, Belgian Ambassador Jean-Arthur Régibeau, Panamanian Ambassador Ramón Martínez and Irish Ambassador GeraldineByrne Nason.

TRANSITIONS — Katherine Sears is joining Rep.-elect Jen Kiggans’ (R-Va.) office as deputy chief of staff. She previously was comms director for Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio). … Chip Yost is returning to the Homeport Group, which he started in 2006. He previously was director of government and international affairs at Westinghouse Electric Company.

ENGAGED — Tim Reitz, executive director of the House Freedom Caucus, proposed to Dawn-Marie Sullivan, legislative director for Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), while on vacation in St. Lucia last week. They met at Bullfeathers, and it was love at first sight. Pic … Another pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kailee Tkacz Buller, president and CEO of the Institute of Shortening and Edible Oils, and Eric Buller of Deloitte welcomed Blair Kennedy Buller on the morning of Dec. 26. She came in at 7 lbs, 8 oz and 21 inches, and joins big brother Conrad. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY:Chris Hartline … Judith Miller … POLITICO’s Mike Zapler, Ben Storrow and Braden McMahon … Alice M. Greenwald … CRC Advisors’ Greg Mueller … Christi Layman … Erin Hughes of Marathon Strategies ... Rachel Perrone … former Reps. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas) and Robert Wexler (D-Fla.) … Kyle Gazis … Koch Industries’ Cheyenne Foster … Rebecca Bill Chavez … Annie Lange of the Beer Institute … Meta’s Annie Lewis and Marc Johnson … Scott Cullinane … Rachel Hicks of McDonald’s ... Douglas Faulkner … Bully Pulpit Interactive’s Alexa Barchuk ... Craig Varoga … Fox Business Network’s Elizabeth MacDonald … Ben Sheffner … John Thornton of Barrick Gold … James Tisch of Loews Corp. … NYT’s Annie Tressler … Anna Wishart … Chandler Dean of West Wing Writers … Will Jawando ... Forbes’ Cyrus Farivar … Michael Webb … Lizzie Langer … Jane Krause

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