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Greetings from the buzzing press gallery above the House floor. The new House has officially gavelled into session and is about to begin voting for the next speaker.

It is abundantly clear that KEVIN McCARTHY does not have the votes to get the gavel. In fact, he admitted as much to his colleagues in a tense closed-door conference meeting this morning — telling them that there could be as many as 20 Republicans who vote against him, as Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney report. (Reminder: McCarthy needs 218 votes to become speaker. There are 222 House Republicans in the new Congress.)

Just before the meeting, House Freedom Caucus leader SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) put out a letter signaling that he’s a “no” on McCarthy. “Kevin McCarthy had an opportunity to be Speaker of the House. He rejected it,” he wrote.

Then McCarthy’s headache became a full-blown migraine.

This morning’s GOP huddle in the basement of the Capitol — complete with cursing and threats — will be one for the history books.

A defiant McCarthy opened by announcing that he would not negotiate any further with his GOP critics and vowing to fight on the floor until the bitter end — even if there are only four members backing him.

He also argued that he’s essentially owed the speakership — a remark that will only exacerbate tensions.

“I earned this job!” he shouted at his detractors in the room.

“This is bullshit!” Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) yelled in response. Upon leaving the room, she told reporters that she was a “no” on McCarthy.

The debate devolved into McCarthy allies standing up and grilling “Never Kevin” Republicans, accusing them of putting their own selfish reservations about his leadership over the good of the party and country. McCarthy suggested that they’d rather see incoming House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.) as speaker than him.

At one point, Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) stood and warned that anyone who voted against McCarthy would lose their committee seats. That threat so infuriated Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) that he started cursing, and stood to get in line to speak.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NOW? After McCarthy fails to get 218 votes on the first ballot, the Freedom Caucus antagonists have signaled that they will start backing another yet-unnamed candidate on the second ballot. The Daily Beast reported Monday night that that person is Ohio Rep. JIM JORDAN, the longtime McCarthy critic-turned-ally.

The Ohio Republican, however, has no shot at being speaker — something that his adoring conservative colleagues know very well. But, per the Daily Beast story, that’s not the point: They’re hoping to peel off more Republicans to back Jordan, aiming to have McCarthy’s vote count decrease from the first ballot to the second.

It’s an open question how long today will go until someone nominates a viable candidate for the gavel — someone like STEVE SCALISE (R-La.) or PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.). And there’s a fear that if one of these member’s names is called too early in the process, the conference will turn on them.

Buckle up. It’s going to be a long day. 

More from the Hill:

— Rep. DAN BISHOP (R-N.C.) is officially a no on McCarthy. “He has perpetuated the Washington status quo that makes this body one of the most unsuccessful and unpopular institutions in the country. This is not about personality differences or who has ‘earned’ the position. It’s about serving the American people,” Bishop said in a statement. (Our colleague Jonathan Martin notes that the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund spent $2.4 million to boost Bishop in his 2019 special election.)

— Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), reiterating his opposition to McCarthy: “If you want to drain the swamp, you cannot put the biggest alligator in charge of the exercise. I'm a Florida man and I know of what I speak.” Watch the clip

— One to watch: “KEEP an eye on incoming freshman ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.), been hearing from R sources they think he is likely a no vote,” tweets Olivia Beavers.

— A sideshow to the McCarthy chaos: “Rep-elect GEORGE SANTOS stepped out of his office with some aides and his attorney. He didn’t respond to any questions from reporters other than saying he’d support McCarthy,” tweets Nicholas Wu. Santos was also spotted sitting alone in the back of the House chamber just after noon.

— And Rep. TED LIEU (D-Calif.) was in a trolling mood ahead of the speaker vote.

Good Tuesday afternoon, and thanks for reading Playbook PM. We’re happy to be back in your inbox after a much-needed hiatus. Drop me a line at [email protected] and tell me what you want to see from Playbook PM in 2023.

CONGRESS

PARTING WORDS — We’ve got two interesting reads from outgoing members of Congress today.

— First, TOM SUOZZI, the New York Democrat who is being succeeded by Santos, pens an op-ed for NYT Opinion: “A Con Man Is Succeeding Me in Congress Today”: “If we are going to subdue the tyranny of unchecked liars and their lies, then Santos must be held accountable: He must be removed by Congress or by prosecutors, because there is no indication that he will be moved by conscience to voluntarily resign.”

— And JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER, a Washington Republican who voted to impeach former President DONALD TRUMP, speaks to The Atlantic’s Elaina Plott Calabro about the end of her 12 years in office: “In an interview with The Atlantic about her six terms in the House and the Trump-backed primary challenge that ousted her, Herrera Beutler remained convinced of Trump’s culpability for the events of January 6. Yet she appeared still bewildered that a crisis of such magnitude had come to pass, and that not even her own constituents were immune to Trump’s propaganda about the 2020 election and the insurrection itself.”

CLICKER — “The 10 U.S. Lawmakers You Need to Know About in 2023,” by Bloomberg

The breakdown:

• GOP Reps. VERN BUCHANAN (Fla.), PATRICK McHENRY (N.C.) and KAY GRANGER (Texas)

• Democratic Reps. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (N.Y.), PRAMILA JAYAPAL (Wash.) and JOSH GOTTHEIMER (N.J.)

• Democratic Sens. MARK WARNER (Va.) and PATTY MURRAY (Wash.)

• GOP Sens. LISA MURKOWSKI (Alaska) and TIM SCOTT (S.C.)

STUCK IN THE MIDDLE — “Kaptur, longtime Ohio Democrat: Congress overlooks heartland,” by AP’s John Seewer: “When the new Congress convenes on Tuesday, Ohio Democratic Rep. MARCY KAPTUR will become the longest-serving woman in its history. Yet after 40 years, she sometimes feels like an outsider. Not because she’s a woman or now in the minority party in the House. It’s that she’s from Middle America, and represents a district populated by working-class folks — a place and people many colleagues have forgotten, Kaptur said in an interview with The Associated Press.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

ROUND TWO — President JOE BIDEN is planning to renominate a large slate of his selections for key administration positions that did not clear the Senate confirmation process last year, WSJ’s Ken Thomas reports. Among the picks are former Los Angeles Mayor ERIC GARCETTI (who Biden nominated to serve as ambassador to India), PHIL WASHINGTON to lead the FAA and DANNY WERFEL to head the IRS.

“In all, the White House said it would act on the first day of the new Senate to renominate 85 of the approximately 175 nominees who didn’t clear the body last year. The first tranche of nominees set to be resubmitted includes about 60 foreseen for agency leadership roles and national-security positions, including ambassadors, as well as 25 — or about half — of the administration’s pending judicial nominees.”

ALL POLITICS

2024 WATCH — “Hispanic Evangelical Leaders Ask: Trump or DeSantis?” by NYT’s Jennifer Medina in Miami: “Few have settled on an answer yet, not surprisingly given that the first votes of the 2024 campaign are over a year away. But the talk of 2024 — of Mr. Trump, who spent years courting evangelicals, and of [Florida Gov. RON] DeSANTIS, who has leaned into the cultural battles that appeal to many conservative Christians — showed both the heightened expectations among Hispanic evangelical leaders in Florida and their desire to demonstrate the potency of their now unabashedly politicized Christianity.”

POLICY CORNER

WHAT THE E-RING IS READING — “Lagging Arms Production Makes Pentagon Wary of Further Industry Consolidation,” by WSJ’s Doug Cameron: “U.S. defense companies are finding it tough to quickly replenish weaponry such as missiles and artillery shells for Ukraine, leading Pentagon officials to revisit whether industry consolidation has gone too far. Two decades of mergers and acquisitions have left the top six contractors to share the majority of Pentagon spending on military equipment. In the 1990s, some 50 firms vied for big contracts.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

IMMIGRATION FILES — “Colorado governor plans to send migrants to New York, mayor says,” by Joe Anuta: “Colorado Gov. JARED POLIS plans to send migrants to major cities including New York, Mayor ERIC ADAMS said Tuesday, warning that the nation’s largest city is already struggling to deal with an influx of people sent from Texas and other Republican-led states. The impending move by Polis is unusual because Colorado is not a border state and both leaders are Democrats facing severe challenges over what they say is a national crisis around immigration.”

GUNS IN AMERICA — “Paralyzed by Gun Violence, They Seek Solace From Other Survivors,” by NYT’s Neelam Bohra in Rochester, N.Y.: “Though the death toll from mass shootings and gun violence across the United States tends to grab the most attention, in recent years those events have left a far greater number of people struggling with physical injuries, including lifelong paralysis.”

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Welfare scandal sharpens contrasts in long-poor Mississippi,” by AP’s Emily Wagster Pettus

STATED PLAINLY — “The New and Noteworthy State Laws Taking Effect in 2023,” by NYT’s Adeel Hassan: “State laws take effect for bouncers in Tennessee, walkers in California, and governors in North Carolina. Here’s a roundup of several key changes across the nation.”

THE PANDEMIC

BY THE NUMBERS — “Omicron offshoot XBB.1.5 could drive new Covid-19 surge in U.S.,” by CNN’s Brenda Goodman: “The CDC estimates that XBB.1.5 has more than doubled its share of the Covid-19 pie each week for the last four, rising from about 4% to 41% of new infections over the month of December. In the Northeast, the CDC estimates, XBB.1.5 is causing 75% of new cases.”

PERSISTENT PROBLEMS — “Move on from COVID? Child care disruptions continue,” by AP’s Heather Hollingsworth and Claire Savage

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE VIEW FROM EUROPE — “Europe prepares to take in more Ukrainians, with less support, in 2023,” by WaPo’s Claire Parker

HOW UKRAINE IS FIGHTING — “Ukraine Has Digitized Its Fighting Forces on a Shoestring,” by WSJ’s Sam Schechner and Daniel Michaels: “Kyiv’s forces networked under Russian attack, achieving a cut-priced ‘MacGyver’ version of systems the Pentagon has spent decades developing.”

— “Ukrainian Forces Grow More Adept at Defending Against Russian Drones,” by NYT’s Andrew Kramer, James McKinley Jr. and Traci Carl

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Natural Gas Prices in Europe Fall to Pre-Invasion Levels,” by NYT’s Stanley Reed

PLAYBOOKERS

George Santosgot lost on the way to his office.

Richard Burrpicked up his Volkswagen from the front of the Capitol.

John Fettermanserved crudités at his inauguration party.

SPOTTED at a party hosted by Joe Hack for Sen.-elect Katie Britt (R-Ala.) at the Jefferson Hotel Monday night: Kellyanne Conway and Steve Clemons.

MEDIA MOVES — David French is joining NYT Opinion as a columnist. He previously was at The Dispatch and a contributing writer for The Atlantic and is a National Review alum. The announcement … Erin Schumaker is joining POLITICO as a health care reporter. She previously was science editor at Insider and is an ABC News and HuffPost alum. … Maya Kaufman is joining POLITICO as a New York health care reporter. She previously was a health care reporter for Crain’s New York Business and is a Patch alum.

TRANSITIONS — Rep.-elect Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) announced his senior D.C. staffers: Danielle Stewart as chief of staff (most recently deputy chief of staff for Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.)), Chris Hall as legislative director (most recently senior counsel for Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.)) and Dan Scharfenberger as comms director (most recently Kean’s campaign manager). … Ashley Schapitl is joining the Treasury Department to lead comms on the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act. She previously was senior policy adviser for the Senate Finance Dems. …

… Dorien Paul Blythers is launching Good Rebel, an LA-based social impact agency. He previously was deputy chief of staff for EPA Administrator Michael Regan. … Dan Eisenberg has joined the New York law firm Emery Celli Brinckerhoff Abady Ward & Maazel. He previously was deputy staff director and senior counsel to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. … Anna Keilly is now legislative aide for Sen.-elect John Fetterman (D-Pa.). She previously was staff assistant for Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD —Alec Zender, senior legislative assistant for Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.), and Angie Zender, a therapist at Lighthouse Emotional Wellness Center, welcomed Ainsley Hope Zender on Dec. 30, 2022.