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It’s early, and things are fluid, but here on Capitol Hill, a framework is emerging for Democrats’ Build Back Better plan. Here’s a bit of a scorecard of the winners and losers at this point in time — and what it tells us about centers of power right now in Washington.

ON OVERALL SIZE …

Winner: Manchinema; Loser: Progressives — Obviously, the flexing by Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) has paid off. The estimated cost of the total package is hovering around $2 trillion — roughly one-third of the $6 trillion amount progressives had hoped for — and includes but a fraction of the funding for the many programs progressives initially wanted. Free community college is off the table; just about everything still on the table has been pared back.

— BUT, BUT, BUT: There’s a solid argument that this might have things upside-down, and that the real winners are the progressives. Despite the huge cut in the overall price tag, and Manchinema running the tables on just about everything, it’s important to note that we’re now talking about two hardcore moderates in the Senate supporting a $2 trillion bill. That comes atop another $1 trillion in infrastructure and $2 trillion in pandemic relief. That’s a total of $5 trillion in spending — an absolutely enormous sum of money.

In that regard, progressives can be seen as winners, too. They’ve pushed moderate Democrats who say they’re worried about the national debt into making a deal of this size.

ON APPROACH AND PROCESS …

Winner: Jayapal; Loser: Pelosi and House Dem leaders — Congressional Progressive Caucus leader PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) has clearly prevailed on the White House in arguing that the bill should fund more programs for shorter periods, with a series of “cliffs.” This comes despite Speaker NANCY PELOSI and her leadership team — not to mention a host of members in the House — calling for the “doing fewer things better” approach to the bill, where they’d fund only a couple of signature programs but on a more permanent basis.

ON HEALTH CARE …

Winner: Bernie; Loser: Pelosi and House Dem leaders — Pelosi’s leadership team also appears to be getting rolled on their push to shore up the Affordable Care Act permanently, instead of funding Sen. BERNIE SANDERS’ (I-Vt.) Medicare expansion to include dental coverage.

It’s still early — and you know what they say about underestimating the speaker — but it’s noteworthy that after weeks of haggling over these issues, President JOE BIDEN floated a mere three-year patch on Pelosi’s legacy ACA legislation while endorsing a temporary pilot program that would send dental cards to seniors. (That comes despite a bunch of senior Democrats going on record talking about how important it is to address ACA on a long-term basis.)

ON SALT DEDUCTIONS …

Winner: Golden; Loser: Gottheimer — This is another one of those still-fluid policy items, but it seems like a big deal that the White House announced Tuesday that reinstating the state and local tax deduction is off the table. That move brings the White House in line with an odd coalition of moderates like Rep. JARED GOLDEN, from a vulnerable seat in Maine, and progressives like New York Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ, who has called this a tax break for the rich.

It also comes despite a major push by members from New Jersey, New York and California. Reps. JOSH GOTTHEIMER and TOM SUOZZI have been among the most vocal arguing that middle-class families in their high-cost districts see it as imperative that the cap on SALT deductions be removed. They’ve even suggested they will vote against the bill without it. (Suozzi today, leaving a caucus meeting: “No SALT, no deal.”)

Worth noting: This fight isn’t over yet, and the balance could flip. Watch to see what Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER does; the New York Democrat himself comes from a high-cost state, and may well prove to be a valuable ally for the so-called SALTies on this issue.

ON CLIMATE …

Winner: Manchin; Loser: Environmentalists — The entire climate agenda of the Biden administration is in question right now thanks to one man — and it’s unclear if this dynamic will change, given the positions of the senator from coal-mining West Virginia.

ON THE CHILD TAX CREDIT …

Winner: Manchin; Loser: House Dems — Manchin is probably the only Democrat in Congress who isn’t a huge fan of the extended child tax credit that was passed as part of pandemic relief. Democrats, especially in the House, love it. The New Democrat Coalition has made its extension a top priority; so have others in leadership. Earlier this morning, Pelosi ally and senior Rep. ROSA DELAURO (D-Conn.) dissed the now-prevailing idea of extending the CTC for only one year.

“A one-year extension is a big mistake, and I think it’s not good for the country,” she told the Hill pool. “What I will do is to continue to pressure for a new framework that’s more enduring for children and for families.”

OVERALL …

The takeaway: It might seem obvious, but the centers of power right now rest in two very different ends of the Democratic caucus, depending on which side of the Capitol you’re on. In the Senate, the moderates run the show; in the House, it’s the progressives (with an assist from Sanders). Several of the legislative priorities and strategies favored by House Democratic leaders have now fallen by the wayside — perhaps that’s why many House Dems today are downplaying the consensus that emerged from Tuesday’s meetings at the White House.

Asked about the White House proposal today, Pelosi told WaPo’s Seung Min Kim that she hadn’t heard about half of the proposed changes being reported in the media. And whatever was discussed at the White House? “That’s not a decision,” the speaker said.

In other words, this tug of war isn’t over — and our winners and losers could change by the time this bill gets to Biden’s desk. Further reading: “‘Got to get everybody in the tent’: Dems power toward narrowed deal,” by Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu

Good Wednesday afternoon.

CONGRESS

RETIREMENT RADAR — NYT’s Jonathan Weisman interviewed the three senior House Democrats who’ve recently announced they won’t run for reelection — JOHN YARMUTH (Ky.), DAVID PRICE (N.C.) and MIKE DOYLE (Pa.) — and found some interesting factors at play in their decisions. There are personal elements, of course, as well as redistricting realities and concerns about DONALD TRUMP’s iron grip on the GOP. But there’s also worry about deepening fissures in their own party: “None of the three expressed concern about any particular bloc … Rather, they said they were worried that none of the groups was willing to compromise.”

SPOTTED: PARIS HILTON is on the Hill today “to talk the ‘troubled teen industry’ and legislation to protect children placed in congregate care facilities,” per The Hill’s Scott Wong. Her WaPo op-ed from Monday

THE VIRGINIA ELECTION

THE REST OF THE TICKET — Beyond the Virginia gubernatorial race next month, there’s a hotly contested battle for the control of the state House of Delegates. Liz Crampton reports from Virginia Beach that the election will be a referendum on Democrats’ flurry of liberal legislative activity in Richmond the last two years. Democrats have a massive cash advantage; Republicans say that “while taking the chamber is unlikely, it’s still within reach.” With just five seats separating the two parties, the Hampton Roads area is the biggest battleground.

THE PANDEMIC

COMING ATTRACTIONS — The Biden administration is prepping its strategy for offering Covid-19 vaccines to children ages 5 to 11, ahead of a potential authorization by the FDA and CDC. The U.S. has already secured enough doses to vaccinate all such children, and it’s working on getting them to pediatricians and schools, distributing necessary resources (like smaller needles) and educating parents to try to reduce hesitancy. More details from the AP

— “In the era of Delta, children get infected as readily as adults do, and they transmit the infection as readily as adults do,” ANTHONY FAUCI warned at this morning’s pandemic briefing.

THE TOLL OF THE UNVACCINATED — Nursing home staff vaccination rates are still quite low in many parts of the country, including 10 states that haven’t even hit 60%, as administrators wait for new federal rules. NYT’s Reed Abelson reports that “months of delays and vaccine resistance have had wrenching consequences for families” who have lost loved ones to Covid-19 in nursing homes. And CMS still isn’t saying when they’ll finally issue the new regulations or what caveats they might entail, though they could be coming later this month.

ANOTHER HURDLE — Hospitals already stretched thin by the Delta variant surge are also facing waves of labor unrest. Staff resignations in August were the highest in more than two decades, and at least 30 health care worker strikes have taken place this year, report Darius Tahir, Victoria Colliver and Alice Miranda Ollstein. The worker dissatisfaction arises from several factors, including the unusual politicized public blowback against public health, pandemic burnout “and perennial complaints over low pay and staffing shortages.”

POLITICS ROUNDUP

2022 WATCH — Georgia Secretary of State BRAD RAFFENSPERGER told Axios’ Emma Hurt that “even if the warring GOP factions manage to unify before next year’s midterm elections, the party is ‘not at 50%’ in Georgia.”

THE NEW GOP — David Siders has a brutal look at how the Arizona Republican Party has gone through the looking glass, “filling up its midterm ballot with a roster of conspiracy theorists and extremists that could threaten the party’s prospects.” And the state is not only falling prey to conspiracy theories, but increasingly sending them to the rest of the country too.

ROLLING IN THE DEEP — Could “deep canvassing” help activists on the left sway voters to vote for their priorities? The somewhat novel form of door-knocking involves lengthy one-on-one conversations in which canvassers listen, share stories and try “to change their minds for the long term, not just in one election or on one issue,” writes NYT’s Jennifer Medina from Minneapolis. Deep canvassing there aims to influence the city’s upcoming vote on an amendment for major changes to the police — and perhaps “help restore voters’ faith in democracy.”

TRUMP CARDS

THE INVESTIGATIONS — Add another one to the list: The Westchester County, N.Y., D.A.’s office has begun a criminal investigation into the Trump National Golf Club Westchester, report NYT’s William Rashbaum and Ben Protess. The extent is still unclear, as is the question of whether it would involve Trump himself, and nobody’s been accused of wrongdoing. But the investigation “appears to be focused at least in part on whether Mr. Trump’s company, the Trump Organization, misled local officials about the property’s value to reduce its taxes.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

MEADOWS LAWYERS UP — Former deputy A.G. GEORGE TERWILLIGER, a top GOP lawyer, will represent MARK MEADOWS in the Jan. 6 select committee inquiry, per CBS’ Ellis Kim. The move “signals that the former White House chief of staff is taking the select panel’s probe very seriously,” write Betsy Woodruff Swan and Olivia Beavers. “The hiring also signals that Washington’s tight-knit conservative legal community is paying close attention to the issues the House investigation touches on — including executive privilege.”

LATEST FINDINGS — A new Capitol Police watchdog report today said the division assigned to protect Hill leadership “was short at least a quarter of its staff on Jan. 6, lacked ballistic vests and did not have a plan of action that day,” Nicholas Wu reports in Congress Minutes.

POLICY CORNER

A MILESTONE BIDEN DOESN’T WANT — The 2021 fiscal year saw the all-time highest number of arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border, per WaPo’s Nick Miroff. July and August saw the most Customs and Border Protection detentions. Major contributing factors include the pandemic, the U.S. labor market and the Biden administration’s policies/tone on immigration.

Particularly striking in the new data is the revelation that the problem goes well beyond the Northern Triangle: Mexicans top the list, followed by the category of “migrants from outside Mexico and Central America.”

HACK ATTACKS — A new Commerce Department rule today aims to stop hacking tools’ sale to Russia, China and other countries, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima reports. “The rule had been in the works for years, stalled earlier by fears that it would stymie cyber defensive work. Now officials hope they have reached the right balance.”

HOT ON THE LEFT — The Revolving Door Project’s Andrea Beaty and Eleanor Eagan reveal in The American Prospect that SUSAN DAVIES, a boogeywoman for the left who almost led DOJ’s antitrust division, “has been heading the Office of Legal Policy (OLP) since September 3 and will be until Biden’s nominee to head that office has been confirmed by the Senate. Until just a few days ago, that fact was entirely hidden from public view.” They have a long story of how they uncovered Davies’ role.

MISCELLANY

HEADS UP — Walter Reed has been placed on lockdown as authorities investigate a bomb threat. There’s no sign of an active shooter, though they at first were investigating that too. More from WTOP

FUTURE EARNINGS — A new Morgan Stanley report forecasts that ELON MUSK could become the first trillionaire, per The Guardian.

PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITIONS — Retired Capt. Lawrence Meehan is now a senior adviser at the Roosevelt Group. He previously was director of the Middle East division at the Navy International Program Office. … State Business Executives is launching as an organization that “works to proactively support and develop non-partisan solutions that promote success for American businesses, workers, and communities.” Jeff Wasden is president and CEO.

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Badri Krishnan of Capital One