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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

SIREN FOR DEMS — Democrats’ expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies expire at the end of the year — and many in the party are worried that Congress will fail to renew them, Adam Cancryn and Megan Messerly report. That could lead 13 million Americans’ premiums to leap all of a sudden, with especially bad timing: “voters would begin receiving notices about their premium increases in October — around the same time they’re starting to cast their midterm ballots.”

There appears to be only one way for Democrats to extend them: the long-discussed reconciliation deal the party is still trying to strike with Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.). (Notably, ACA subsidies are not one of the areas Manchin said he wants a bill to focus on.)

PLAYBOOK DEEP DIVE — JENNIFER ELLIS is the face of the movement that handed DONALD TRUMP his biggest defeat of the year. She leads Take Back Idaho, a political action committee founded last year to beat back the growing tide of extremist candidates in Idaho.

Ellis’ main target on Tuesday was JANICE MCGEACHIN, the state’s far-right lieutenant governor, whom Trump backed in her gubernatorial primary challenge to incumbent Gov. BRAD LITTLE.

Trump’s candidate lost by almost 21 points.

For this week’s episode of Playbook Deep Dive, we sat down with Ellis at her cattle ranch in eastern Idaho to understand how the state’s GOP establishment delivered this stinging rebuke to Trumpism. Listen to the episode here

TRUMP’S REAL WIN-LOSS RECORD — Trump’s endorsement losses are starting to pile up.

Most of his endorsements have been in races where his anointed candidate faced little or no competition. Nobody would be impressed by a handicapper who won placing bets at a track featuring races with only one horse.

The only Trump endorsements that matter are in competitive races. And there, the record is mixed:

• In Texas, Trump endorsed SUSAN WRIGHT in a special election last year. She lost. (His Texas record in the 2022 primaries can’t be fairly assessed until the runoffs Tuesday.)

• In Pennsylvania, his first candidate in the GOP Senate primary, SEAN PARNELL, dropped out of the race after his wife, amid a custody dispute, accused him of being physically abusive, which he denied. Trump’s second choice, MEHMET OZ, is mired in a tight race that appears headed for a recount. (Trump also endorsed DOUG MASTRIANO in the GOP gubernatorial primary, but only in the final weekend of the campaign, when the race was no longer competitive.)

• In Nebraska, he endorsed CHARLES HERBSTER in the GOP gubernatorial primary. He lost.

• In Ohio, he endorsed J.D. VANCE in the GOP Senate primary, FRANK LAROSE in the secretary of state primary, MAX MILLER in OH-7, and MADISON GESIOTTO GILBERT in OH-13. All four won.

• In North Carolina, Trump endorsed Rep. TED BUDD in the GOP Senate primary. He won. He also endorsed BO HINES in the GOP primary to represent NC-13. He won. And he endorsed Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN in NC-11. He lost. 

• In West Virginia, he endorsed Rep. ALEX MOONEY in WV-2. He won.

• And in Idaho, he endorsed McGeachin in the GOP gubernatorial primary. She lost. 

That brings Trump’s record in competitive races to seven wins and four losses — a 64% winning percentage. That’s not bad, but it’s not nearly as good as the padded win-loss record Trump world promotes.

The Pennsylvania experience appears to be particularly embarrassing, with aides to the former president telling CNN’s Gabby Orr that he “may hold off on more endorsements for coming primaries.” She adds that Trump allies “say he is feeling more risk-averse” now that “his endorsement of celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz failed to translate into a decisive win.”

Out in Idaho, McGeachin didn’t just lose — she got trounced, 52.8%-32.2%. And the old national GOP establishment is looking to the state to understand what happened.

Aside from the endorsement, Trump didn’t spend much political capital on the race and McGeachin ran a poor campaign dominated by her associations with militias and white supremacists. “She never really got her campaign together,” said a Little adviser, “and was never able to use that endorsement to raise much money.”

HOW TO BEAT A MAGA CANDIDATE IN A PRIMARY — Still, advisers to Little told Playbook they thought there were a few big takeaways from their victory that might be applicable to establishment Republican candidates facing similar right-wing insurgencies from a MAGA candidate:

— Don’t ignore the Trump wing’s issues, no matter how weird you think they are. Little is very conservative, but he’s also a technocrat who wasn’t keen to spend time discussing every outrage on Fox News.

“If you have a Chamber of Commerce candidate versus an ideologue who wants to change the world,” said a top Little official, “that Chamber candidate might not want to talk about [critical race theory] or engage with it at all. But they might have to because it’s on voters’ minds. They might think, ‘That’s not why I’m running for office.’ But there’s a decent piece of the party that wants to know your position on it.”

— Don’t take on Trump directly. Neither Take Back Idaho nor Little nor any of the super PACs that spent money defending the GOP establishment dared to go after Trump. One of their biggest concerns was that Trump would come back and campaign for McGeachin. He never did. When DONALD TRUMP JR. visited, he didn’t raise money for McGeachin. Instead, throughout the campaign, Little’s team kept a friendly back channel to Trump world rather than confront him.

In other words, this was the opposite approach to the one taken by the Lincoln Project and the #NeverTrump movement. It is also obviously a sign of Trump’s enormous strength and influence over even those Republicans he doesn’t endorse.

— Build a network with the anti-insurgents around the country. Some of the Republicans who worked to save Little are now eyeing their next GOP target to defend. Ellis told me that several colleagues will be traveling next door to Wyoming to go door-knocking for Rep. LIZ CHENEY. (Her primary is Aug. 16.)

Related reads:

— POLL OF THE DAY: Rep. MO BROOKS may have lost Trump’s endorsement in the Alabama Senate GOP primary, but he’s now surging, down to KATIE BRITT by just 2 points in the latest poll from the Alabama Daily News and Gray Television. Those two and MIKE DURANT all have “a chance of making a likely runoff,” writes Todd Stacy.

— Trump, upset about DAVID PERDUE’s flailing primary challenge to Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP, “has groused about what he believes is a lackluster campaign effort from Perdue,” and isn’t planning to help more, report NBC’s Marc Caputo, Allan Smith and Peter Nicholas. How it’s going: “Perdue’s campaign has scheduled $0 worth of ads for the campaign’s final week.”

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"mailto:rbade@politico.com","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f610004","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f610005","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"mailto:edaniels@politico.com","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f610006","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f610007","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"mailto:rlizza@politico.com","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f610008","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f610009","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">Ryan Lizza.

KEYSTONE STATE LATEST — Oz’s lead in the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary has dropped to 0.1 percentage points — putting him ahead of DAVID MCCORMICK by barely 1,000 votes in the latest count. Tens of thousands of ballots remain to be tallied.

— With a likely recount looming, both sides are lawyering up, Holly Otterbein reports from Philly. Music to JOHN FETTERMAN’s ears: “Pennsylvania Republicans are predicting trench warfare that could drag out for weeks — and be fought in the media, as well as potentially in the courts.”

SPEAKING OF DRAGGING OUT … The much-watched Democratic primary between Oregon Rep. KURT SCHRADER and progressive challenger JAMIE MCLEOD-SKINNER might not reach a resolution for another month after this week’s election. That’s because a technical error is preventing machines from reading tens of thousands of votes, which will instead have to be counted by hand over the next several weeks, per The Oregonian’s Grant Stringer.

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’S FRIDAY — The president has already arrived in Pyeongtaek, South Korea and toured (with Korean President YOON SUK YEOL) a Samsung Electronics campus that’s a model for a new plant being built in Texas. Still to come (all times Eastern):

— 6:15 a.m.: Biden and Yoon will speak, with Biden making a public case for Congress to pass the Bipartisan Innovation Act.

— 7:20 a.m.: Biden will leave Pyeongtaek for Seoul, arriving at 7:40 a.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ FRIDAY:

— 1:45 p.m.: The VP will head to Meridian High School in Falls Church, Va., with EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN.

— 3:40 p.m.: Harris will tout the bipartisan infrastructure law’s investments in clean school buses, before departing for Washington at 4:05 p.m.

— 6:15 p.m.: Harris will speak at AAPI Victory Power Fund’s first ever victory celebration.

THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

THE WHITE HOUSE

KIRBY’S DREAM LAND — JOHN KIRBY is joining the White House’s comms team in a senior role after serving as Pentagon spokesperson, WaPo’s Tyler Pager reports. Some details of his role remain unclear, but he may appear at the podium and is likely to work with the NSC.

— CNN’s Isaac Dovere has a slightly different readout","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1527437269556248576?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a0002","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a0003","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">has a slightly different readout, reporting that Kirby will be part of the NSC comms team and focus more on “advising on national security,” a la BEN RHODES.

MEET THE NEW PRESS SEC — “Karine Jean-Pierre’s Unlikely Rise to the White House Lectern,”","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/20/business/media/karine-jean-pierre-press-secretary.html","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a0004","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a0005","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">“Karine Jean-Pierre’s Unlikely Rise to the White House Lectern,” by NYT’s Michael M. Grynbaum. Related read: Grynbaum also reports that the longstanding tradition of W.H. press secretaries handing down a flak jacket filled with notes from predecessors continues now with a twist: The jacket went missing at the end of the Trump era, so JEN PSAKI has replaced it with a bright-yellow women’s blazer.

PARTY OF ONE — People close to Biden keep testing positive for the coronavirus — and the White House keeps declaring that he hasn’t been in “close contact” with them. “The growing number [of] coronavirus cases within the White House and the president’s orbit have indirectly revealed that few people, including top advisers and family members, appear to spend more than 15 minutes with him,” WaPo’s Annie Linskey reports. That’s kept the president safe and free from having to follow exposure protocols — but also put his relative isolation on display.

QUITE THE TURNAROUND — Biden is considering meeting with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN as soon as June, amid pressure for the U.S. to thaw relations with Saudi Arabia for help with the global oil situation, Bloomberg’s Matthew Martin, Jennifer Jacobs and Vivian Nereim report. Tensions have been strained since the murder of JAMAL KHASHOGGI.

CONGRESS

FREEDOM FRIED — The House Freedom Caucus’ hardball tactics to force roll-call votes on uncontroversial legislation is frustrating both Democrats and Republicans, CNN’s Mel Zanona and Kristin Wilson report. On Tuesday, their timing forced the cancellation of eight GOP fundraisers that would have brought in hundreds of thousands of dollars. Some caucus members dislike it. And “[a]t least one GOP lawmaker has privately called on the GOP steering committee … to take this episode into consideration when determining which seats Republicans get next year.”

— @MZanona","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1527464499434999812","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a000e","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a000f","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">@MZanona: “Rep. CHIP ROY, speaking on Fox News, responds to Republican complaints about the canceled fundraisers: ‘Oh, I’m sorry, did we interfere with your steak dinner?’”

ALL POLITICS

IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED — Can Democrats really win a North Carolina Senate race in a rough midterm cycle and after a 14-year drought in the state? The party is torn over how hard to fight for CHERI BEASLEY in an expensive swing state that’s burned them before, Burgess Everett reports. The DSCC and Senate Majority PAC have yet to commit money, while the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund announced $30 million and are already trying to define Beasley as soft on crime. “We’re going to be watching it closely, and they may very well see some investments,” said DSCC Chair GARY PETERS (D-Mich.).

GEORGIA ON MY MIND — “On Race, Herschel Walker’s Offer of Absolution Divides Georgia Voters,”","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/20/us/politics/herschel-walker-raphael-warnock-race-georgia.html","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a0012","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6a0013","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">“On Race, Herschel Walker’s Offer of Absolution Divides Georgia Voters,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman

MORE NEW YORK FALLOUT — Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) said Thursday that he will run in the 16th district in New York’s new draft redistricting map. He also criticized DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY for choosing to run in the 17th district, per NYT’s Nicholas Fandos: "He’s the chair of the DCCC. It's his responsibility to make sure Democrats stay in the majority. To not run in 18th is to directly impact our ability to maintain the majority. … You’ve got one job to do and you’re literally not doing that job."

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

LOOK WHO’S TALKING — Former A.G. BILL BARR is talking to the Jan. 6 committee about sitting for an interview and leaning toward doing so, Axios’ Jonathan Swan reports. “No firm decision has been made by the committee on whether to invite Barr to appear in the public hearings that begin in June.”

WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS — The panel now has some official White House photographs taken by SHEALAH CRAIGHEAD on Jan. 6 in its possession, which “presents the prospect that the select committee may be able to offer a more vivid and granular picture of what was happening inside the White House on Jan. 6 than previously known,” Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu report.

VALLEY TALK

MUSK READ — “A SpaceX flight attendant said Elon Musk exposed himself and propositioned her for sex, documents show. The company paid $250,000 for her silence,”","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-paid-250000-to-a-flight-attendant-who-accused-elon-musk-of-sexual-misconduct-2022-5","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6d0002","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6d0003","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">“A SpaceX flight attendant said Elon Musk exposed himself and propositioned her for sex, documents show. The company paid $250,000 for her silence,” by Insider’s Rich McHugh. Musk said it was a “politically motivated hit piece.” (The Drudge headline: “SPACE XXX.”)

POLICY CORNER

FORMULA FUROR — After Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to try to speed more baby formula to empty shelves, plenty of questions remain about how that will actually help the situation, NYT’s Michael Shear, Christina Jewett and Ana Swanson report: A top official “declined to say whether any formula companies reported having trouble getting ingredients or materials in a timely manner.” Members of the administration acknowledged the shortage will likely continue into June.

— Meanwhile, the Senate passed a bill that will help WIC participants purchase formula more easily; it now heads to Biden’s desk. More from the AP","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://apnews.com/article/biden-health-united-states-congress-015b064f966cc8a0d5963994d6638b0e","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6d0006","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f6d0007","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">More from the AP

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION

IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE — D.C. temperatures could hit the mid-90s this weekend, potentially the “hottest weather ever observed so early in the calendar year,” per Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow and Ian Livingston.

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Toluse Olorunnipa, Robert Samuels and Kelsey Snell.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CBS “Face the Nation”: Robert Gates … Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) … Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

FOX “Fox News Sunday,” guest-anchored by Martha MacCallum: RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel. Panel: Karl Rove, Julie Pace and Jessica Tarlov.

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Cliff Albright … Jane Harman … Joe Walsh.

CNN “Inside Politics”: Panel: Jeff Zeleny, Marianna Sotomayor, Rachael Bade and Toluse Olorunnipa.

ABC “This Week”: Panel: Caitlin Dickerson, Sarah Isgur, Stephanie Cutter and Terry Moran.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went public with her engagement to her longtime partner, Riley Roberts. (AOC told Insider that they actually got engaged last month in Puerto Rico.)

With no advance notice, Donald Trump called Golf Digest’s Michael Bamberger to sound off about losing a PGA tournament after Jan. 6, Saudi money and other golf-related topics (about which we will not pretend to be knowledgeable).

Madison Cawthorn posted on Instagram, “It’s time for the rise of the new right, it’s time for Dark MAGA to truly take command.”

Kellyanne Conway writes in her new memoir that husband George was “cheating by tweeting” anti-Trump sentiments.

Sherrod Brown missed votes and went to the hospital for tests after not feeling well, but he expects to be back next week.

Karine Jean-Pierre is among at least 30 top White House aides who carry student loan debt, per Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove. “Collectively, they owe as much as $4.7 million.”

Jonathan Swan declaredNatalie Imbruglia’s “Torn” the greatest song not just of the 20th century — but maybe ever. (If this sounds familiar, in 2019, he hailed the track as the 20th century’s greatest tune. Apparently, the three years since then were enough time for him to conclude that it might be unmatched in the history of music.)

OUT AND ABOUT — French Ambassador Philippe Etienne hosted a cocktail reception honoring the life and legacy of Jean Monnet and to mark the French presidency of the Council of the European Union on Wednesday night. SPOTTED: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Reps. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Ted Deutch (D-Fla.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Sydney Barron, Joanna Pritchett, Gloria Story Dittus, Juleanna Glover and Chris Reiter, Jane Harman,Ashley Parker, David Sanger and Molly Ball.

— At his latest gathering of bipartisan politicos and media figures, Michael Hardaway invited people who worked for presidents on both sides of the aisle and asked them each to share an anecdote from a former boss. SPOTTED at the dinner at the Palm: Jalina Porter, Kamau Marshall, David Almacy, Darren Peters, Eva McKend, Cameron Trimble, Robert Primus and Juliegrace Brufke.

— The Asian American Foundation hosted its inaugural partner summit and heritage month reception Thursday. The day included morning panels at the Mandarin Oriental and an evening reception at the InterContinental, where guests watched a preview of “Heritage Heroes” short films and ate food from D.C. AAPI chefs Kevin Tien, Susan Bae, Danny Lee, Yesoon Lee, Tim Ma and Roren Choi, via Chefs Stopping AAPI Hate. Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) spoke at the reception. Also SPOTTED throughout the day: Erika Moritsugu, Daniel Dae Kim, Jose Antonio Vargas, Jeremy Lin, Rohini Kosoglu, Gautam Raghavan and Norman Chen.

DHS ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Iranga Kahangama will be assistant DHS secretary for cyber, infrastructure, risk and resilience. He currently is director for cyber incident response and policy within the NSC’s cybersecurity directorate.

TRANSITIONS — Heather Sawyer will be executive director of American Oversight. She previously spent more than a dozen years on Capitol Hill. … Helen Davies is joining Edelman Global Advisory as deputy COO and managing director for economic security. She previously ran her own consulting firm, HD&A.

WEDDING — Victoria Kucharski, an account supervisor at Ketchum, and Tom Buchanan, a senior account executive at CRC Advisors, got married recently in Charleston, S.C. They met when they both worked at CRC.Pic","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"https://static.politico.com/c2/90/56251e104567a19286578f95d510/img-3192.jpeg","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f71000e","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f71000f","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}"> Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) … Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo … Delaware Gov. John Carney … Cindy McCain … Jon Meacham … former Reps. Mark Walker (R-N.C.), Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) and Harold Ford Sr. (D-Tenn.) … Craig Melvin … Phil Elliott of Time … George Condon … State Department’s Ethan Rosenzweig … Marie Royce … Stacy Day … WaPo’s Amber Phillips … USA Today’s Rebecca Morin … Ryan Kuresman … ABC’s Dan Abrams … Walter Isaacson … APCO Worldwide’s Margery Kraus … Michael Oren … WSJ’s Chad Day … Rebecca Eichmann of Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-Va.) office … Gabriel Muller … Cassie Smedile Docksey of America Rising ... Amy Leveton … Lauren Wolman of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s (D-Fla.) office … Amazon’s PJ Hoffman … former New York Gov. David Paterson … Brian Darling ... POLITICO’s Eric Busch, Casey Arbaugh and Julia Marsh … Christina Bellantoni of USC Annenberg … Michael Law … New York state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi … Aylon Berger … Davey Ahearn

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com","link":{"target":"NEW","attributes":[],"url":"mailto:playbook@politico.com","_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f710012","_type":"33ac701a-72c1-316a-a3a5-13918cf384df"},"_id":"00000180-eaa5-d956-abb1-fffd6f710013","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">[email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.