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President JOE BIDEN and lawmakers return to Washington this week facing a lengthy lame-duck to-do list with only three weeks scheduled to resolve it — a recipe for a very un-merry holiday season should negotiations falter in the final throes of the 117th Congress.

— First up: government funding, which expires Dec. 16. The verdict is still out on whether a bipartisan full-year appropriations deal is within reach — or whether Congress will just kick the can down the road and pass another continuing resolution into next year.

All eyes this week will be on Senate Republicans — and especially GOP Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who will have to decide whether to help put up the 10 needed GOP votes to clear a 2023 omnibus.

It’s a close call. On one hand, Republicans will control the House next year, boosting the party’s bargaining hand. On the other, GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY (or whoever wins the speaker’s gavel) will be dealing with a slim, unruly majority — one that might well rally around a government shutdown to signal there’s a new sheriff in town.

McConnell has never been fond of shutdowns, and he might decide to clear the decks and spare Republicans one political headache (though he’s likely to punt another, the debt limit, to next year). He also has a crop of allies who are retiring and eager to put their imprint on government policies one last time, including GOP appropriations leader RICHARD SHELBY (Ala.). Plus there’s Ukraine funding, which many Senate Republicans want to lock in as House conservatives vow to turn off the Kyiv funding spigot.

But the clock is ticking. As Caitlin Emma wrote last week, even if both sides want a deal, they don’t have much time to come up with one. Already, Hill aides are fretting that another short-term extension will be needed, pushing the real final deadline closer to Christmas — or beyond.

The outside pressure for a deal is beginning to mount. Our ace Pro Defense colleague Lara Seligman scoops a letter Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN is sending Hill leaders today imploring them to pass a full-year funding bill.

“Failure to do so will result in significant harm to our people and our programs and would cause harm to our national security and our competitiveness,” he writes, adding: “We can’t outcompete China with our hands tied behind our back three, four, five or six months of every fiscal year.”

— Speaking of DOD: Also awaiting action is the annual National Defense Authorization Act, another must-pass item whose status is making defense hawks nervous. To be fair, lawmakers usually find a way to get it done — at least, they have for 61 years in a row.

But the politics of this particular lame duck are tricky. McCarthy said in November that lawmakers should delay the NDAA until next year, when they control the House and have more leverage to address what they say is a “woke” Pentagon culture that’s weakening the military. As Connor O’Brien covered earlier this month, House Republicans are targeting policies ranging from vaccine mandates to efforts to diversify the ranks.

While Democrats have the House majority for a few more weeks, they likely can’t pass the NDAA on their own. Speaker NANCY PELOSI has a crop of progressives who historically never vote for the yearly Pentagon reauthorization because they disagree with funding levels — thus, she’ll probably need some GOP help.

— That brings us to McCarthy’s quest for the speaker’s gavel. The GOP leader, you’ll recall, is staring down a Jan. 3 vote on the speakership, where he will need the support of all but three or four members of his conference. So to protect his right flank, expect him to continue playing hardball on NDAA.

— Related read: “McCarthy’s pursuit of speaker’s gavel comes at a high cost,” by AP’s Lisa Mascaro

Over the break, Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.) became the fifth member to say he’d oppose the California Republican’s bid. Of course, McCarthy has tools at his disposal to try to woo the holdouts: promises of rules changes, plum committee posts, votes on pet projects and bills, plus other favors that only he can dish out.

The horse trading could get politically hairy for McCarthy. A group co-led by former Rep. DAVID JOLLY (R-Fla.) is giving POLITICO a first look today at its campaign to brand McCarthy’s dealings with his MAGA-centric flank as a “corrupt bargain” with far-right extremists. (Huddle has the full scoop, out later this morning.)

— In other lame-duck legislative potpourri, the Senate is expected to pass the Respect for Marriage Act this week after 12 GOP senators helped Democrats advance the bill ensuring that same-sex and interracial marriages remain protected nationwide.

Time is now suddenly of the essence for the bipartisan Electoral Count Act overhaul, with DONALD TRUMP announcing another presidential run and House Republican leaders showing zero interest in passing this carefully negotiated package aimed at avoiding another Jan. 6. With Senate floor time already scarce, there’s a growing expectation the text may need to be attached to appropriations or the NDAA.

But you shouldn’t expect much action on an assault weapons ban. Following the deadly mass shooting Tuesday at a Virginia Walmart, Biden called on Congress to stop sales of many semiautomatic rifles. But even Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), the Senate’s leading gun control advocate, played down hopes Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“Does it have 60 votes in the Senate right now? Probably not,” he said. “But let’s see if we can try to get that number as close to 60 as possible.”

Good Monday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. What lesser-known lame-duck items did we miss? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

BEIJING CALLING — Washington faces a new and delicate foreign policy challenge in the coming days, and perhaps beyond: the stunning outbreak of street protests in multiple Chinese cities pushing back on stringent Covid lockdowns and, in some cases, calling for the ouster of President XI JINPING.

It’s "the most defiant eruption of public anger against the ruling Communist Party in years," according to a sprawling NYT ledeall by Chris Buckley, Vivian Wang, Chang Che and Amy Chang Chien. While the proximate cause of the unrest was a deadly fire in the far western provincial capital of Urumqi, it has since spread through the country, fueled by outrage over Xi's "zero Covid" policies.

"Protests are relatively rare in China. Especially under Mr. Xi, the party has eliminated most means for organizing people to take on the government," the NYT writes. "But the pervasiveness of China’s Covid restrictions has created a focus for anger that transcends class and geography. …

"The Communist Party’s greatest fear would be realized if these similar grievances led protesters from disparate backgrounds to cooperate, in an echo of 1989, when students, workers, small traders and residents found some common cause in the protests demanding democratic change that took over Tiananmen Square. So far, that has not occurred."

How will Biden and other D.C. policymakers respond? It's a space worth watching this week, especially after Biden and Xi took steps to patch up the rocky U.S.-China relationship on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting earlier this month.

In particular, Biden and his administration are eager to keep China at arm's length from Russia as the war in Ukraine nears its first anniversary. So it will be interesting to note if Biden offers public support for the protesters — as he has done for the recent uprising for women's rights in Iran — and to what degree.

One potential flashpoint: Chinese police stand accused of beating a Western reporter, the BBC's Ed Lawrence, who was covering a protest in Shanghai. "We have had no official explanation or apology from the Chinese authorities, beyond a claim by the officials who later released him that they had arrested him for his own good in case he caught Covid from the crowd," the BBC said overnight. "We do not consider this a credible explanation."

PHOTO OF THE DAY

ALL POLITICS

GEORGIA ON MY MIND — The Georgia Senate runoff is growing more bitter, with attacks on the airwaves and the stump getting very personal, AP’s Bill Barrow reports from Warner Robins. Allies of Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK “say that the personalized arguments help convince core Democrats that they should not sit out the runoff, while also swaying the potentially decisive middle … From [HERSCHEL] WALKER’s camp, [campaign manager SCOTT] PARADISE insisted that Republicans’ best argument remains Warnock’s alignment with Democrats on economic policy. Still, he acknowledges the campaign’s tone has darkened.”

— Gov. BRIAN KEMP is creating a new federal PAC, Hardworking Americans Inc., which could set him up to play more of a role in races around the country or head toward his own campaign for federal office, Axios’ Emma Hurt reports. It could also help Kemp bolster support for Walker in the next couple of weeks.

THE GOP CRACK-UP — A Trump reckoning is emerging at the state level of the GOP, with MAGA control over party organs in Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and elsewhere in question, Adam Wren, Holly Otterbein, Natalie Allison and Lisa Kashinsky report. Leadership challenges in multiple states come amid disappointment with the midterms, uncertainty about Trump and reconsideration of GOP opposition to practices like mail ballots. Not all Never Trumpers feel confident that Trump will finally loosen his grip on the party, and in states like Arizona and Massachusetts, the MAGA wing isn’t reconsidering. But some are jumping off the train, including former Rep. LOU BARLETTA (R-Pa.): “I was one of his most loyal supporters in Congress. But loyalty was only a one-way street.”

THE RED WAVE THAT WAS — The GOP’s smashing success in New York came down to one factor above all, NYT’s Nicholas Fandos reports from Great Neck Plaza: suburbanites ditching Democrats over crime concerns. Swing voters — some of them no Trump fans — jumped ship “amid a torrent of doomsday-style advertising and constant media headlines about rising crime and deteriorating public safety.” Republican turnout also swamped tepid Democrats, but strategists say the GOP managed to turn the election into a crime referendum — and many suburban residents, reading the N.Y. Post and not going into the city much since Covid, felt growing fear.

KNOWING RILEY MOORE —“West Virginia anti-ESG crusader aims to bring fight to Congress with 2024 run,” Washington Examiner

THE WHITE HOUSE

PARDON ME — Biden’s marijuana possession pardons drew plenty of attention, but they’ve helped just a fraction of people with such arrests on their records, NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Michael Shear report. State-level marijuana convictions — which account for the majority — are outside his jurisdiction. And Biden hasn’t stopped immigration officials from deporting people for simple possession. “[W]hile many advocates welcomed the presidential act of forgiveness, they say far too many people — many of them Black and Latino — are not eligible for the pardons, leaving them with minor marijuana convictions that will continue to get in the way of job prospects, educational opportunities and financing for homes.”

JUST POSTED — “Biden Helped Democrats Avert a ’22 Disaster. What About ’24?” by NYT’s Katie Glueck

CONGRESS

‘A 24/7 OBSTACLE COURSE’ — After dealing with their own small majority the past two years, House Dems are warning that McCarthy has scant room for error, Sarah Ferris writes this morning. Pelosi imposed discipline on her caucus, but not without plenty of late nights, unexpected vacancies and hard work. And the GOP ending proxy voting could make their task even tougher.

— Said Rep. DON BEYER (D-Va.), “I don’t lie awake at night worrying about the bad legislation they are going to pass. Because I don’t think they’re going to pass it.”

THE NEW GOP — McCarthy and House GOP Whip STEVE SCALISE (R-La.) have rejected meetings with U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials, Bloomberg’s Laura Davison reports in a look at the GOP’s growing rift with big business over “woke capitalism.” That’ll be a big focus for the new House majority, while the Chamber grows far less influential with the Hill GOP. “Corporations and their representatives in Washington are meeting with incoming Republicans, typically a friendly formality after an election. Yet some of the sessions aren’t going well this year,” according to a business lobbyist who blames freshmen with big opinions and little expertise.

THE NEW DEMS — House Democrats managed to orchestrate a pretty civil passing of the torch from one generation of leadership to the next — with one exception, NBC’s Scott Wong reports. JIM CLYBURN’s (D-S.C.) decision to remain in leadership, albeit in a more junior position, has rankled some younger members, especially as Rep. JOE NEGUSE (D-Colo.) was squeezed out of a top spot. “There are a lot of upset folks,” one member tells Wong. “The feeling is that Speaker Pelosi and Leader Hoyer had the grace to step aside, and people cannot believe that Clyburn is unwilling to do it. There is really resentment there about the down-ballot impact.”

TRUMP CARDS

DIDN’T-SEE-THE-TWEET VIBES — Trump may have sparked controversy during a politically sleepy holiday weekend after dining with white supremacist NICK FUENTES and YE (better known as Kanye West) at Mar-a-Lago, but the party’s leading figures aren’t speaking out against him, Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove notes. McConnell, McCarthy and top 2024 rivals like Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and MIKE PENCE haven’t touched the controversy. RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL did criticize bigotry, but didn’t mention Trump.

PAGING JACK SMITH —“After Mueller, legal experts hope for a more vocal special counsel,” The Hill

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — As the Supreme Court considers race-based affirmative action in college admissions, WaPo’s Nick Anderson heads to Berkeley to see what the country’s future could look like if SCOTUS strikes it down. He finds a campus admissions office at the University of California at Berkeley that has tried hard to diversify its student body without being able to consider race in most cases. But yawning gaps remain: Nineteen percent of undergraduates are Latino, versus 55% of public school students. “Some celebrate UC-Berkeley as an exemplar of racial diversity. Others say it shows the enormous, perhaps insurmountable, challenges ahead for selective colleges and universities.”

— Happening today: The court will consider a pair of challenges from New Yorkers convicted of bribery and fraud “that could make it harder to pursue public corruption prosecutions,” Reuters’ Nate Raymond previews. The cases from the ANDREW CUOMO era, brought originally by PREET BHARARA, could limit how prosecutors pursue those crimes if the court rules in the defendants’ favor. The high court has already “hemmed in prosecutors in political corruption cases” in recent years.

POLICY CORNER

FED UP — Fed Chair JEROME POWELL’s campaign to tamp down inflation is drawing increasing resistance from progressives, who worry that his interest rate hikes will sacrifice jobs, Victoria Guida reports this morning. “That attitude, they say, reflects an institutional bent at the central bank — that workers must always bear the brunt of the fight against inflation.” Discontent from labor unions and allies could translate into more congressional rebukes from the likes of Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), as progressives argue that some inflation isn’t controllable by the Fed and that corporations have taken advantage of it. But “Powell isn’t backing down.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — The extensive American drive to provide military support to Ukraine is sapping the industrial base’s ability to produce for Taiwan, WSJ’s Gordon Lubold, Doug Cameron and Nancy Youssef scoop. The backlog of weapons for Taiwan has grown in the past year from $14 billion to nearly $19 billion. Hundreds of Javelins and Stingers, ordered seven years ago, have yet to make it to Taipei. “The backlog has raised concern that Washington is running out of time to help defend Taiwan against China adequately, because Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, can’t be effectively armed after an invasion.”

CLICKER —“What travel warnings do other nations give their citizens about US violence?” CNN

THE ECONOMY

“Stagflation Will Rule 2023, Keeping Stocks in Peril,” Bloomberg

“The great mismatch: Remote jobs are in demand, but positions are drying up,” WaPo

“Restaurants, Grocery Stores Battle Over Consumers’ Stretched Dollars,” WSJ

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

DATA DIVE — People of color made up almost all of the country’s growth from 2010 to 2020. But redistricting following the latest census lowered the number of majority-minority state legislative districts, Pluribus’ Reid Wilson reports. Experts point to the Supreme Court’s weakening of the Voting Rights Act, as the number of such districts fell most in GOP-led states. “In some cases, a decline in the number of majority-minority seats is a reflection of changing population patterns.”

CHECKS AND IMBALANCES — Axios’ Stef Kight tracks a striking statistic: Half of states in the U.S. are headed for legislatures with partisan supermajorities that can override a veto. The tally of 25 states (17 Republican and nine Democratic) is up from 21 before the midterm elections. That gives “the party in power a historic level of control over elections, redistricting, abortion rights, gun laws and other major policies.”

NEWSOM VS. MAYORS — As California continues to struggle with homelessness, Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM is withholding money from local homelessness programs over what he sees as their inadequate progress, WSJ’s Christine Mai-Duc reports. Newsom’s supporters say he’s pushing hard to secure bigger results. Local officials, though, warn that his move will just worsen the situation. “Just over a week ago, Mr. Newsom met with more than 100 local leaders and agreed to release the frozen funds—but only to jurisdictions that agreed to submit more ambitious proposals by the end of the month.”

TRANSITION — Justin Goodman is now an EVP in SKDK’s D.C. public affairs practice. He most recently was comms director for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

ENGAGED — Tiana Lowe, a commentary writer at the Washington Examiner, and Tim Doescher, adviser to coalition comms at the Heritage Foundation, got engaged last month in Denver. They met there a year ago, when he was speaking at the Western Conservative Summit and she was covering antifa protests: Tim called Tiana out for getting in antifa’s face after they’d already broken her camera, and then asked to get a margarita with her. Pic

WEDDINGS — AshLee Strong, owner of Granite Peak Communications and a Paul Ryan and John Thune alum, and Wylie Galt, a rancher, businessman and outgoing speaker of the Montana state House, got married Nov. 11 on his family’s ranch (the 71 Ranch) in Martinsdale, Mont. The couple had an intimate ceremony at the base of the Crazy Mountains in front of mostly family. The dinner was held in one of the oldest buildings on the ranch, a blacksmith shop, that was completely redone for the event, where the couple served the family’s wagyu steaks. Pic … Another pic

— Nate Treffeisen, director of partner communication and engagement at 2U Inc. and a City Year alum, and Quinn Hatoff, head of airport partnerships, East, at Uber, got married recently at the Ocean Institute in Dana Point, Calif., not far from Quinn’s childhood home of San Clemente. They met in D.C. in late 2017.Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: National security adviser Jake Sullivan … Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) … Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-N.Y.) … POLITICO’s Jonathan Lemire and Cally Baute … Judd Deere … Sean Rankin of the Democratic Attorneys General Association … Stephen Jordan ... CBS’ Susan Spencer … CNN’s Tim Skoczek … WaPo’s Matea Gold … Michael Sargeant ... Bryan Corbett of the Managed Funds Association (5-0) … Ryan Hedgepeth … Glen Johnson … Lexie Rock of Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) office … Anna Weinstein of Hogan Lovells … NNSA’s Harris Walker … Ashley Phelps … Chris Tucker of FTI Consulting … Mandy Gunasekara … Ashley Baker of the Committee for Justice … USDA’s Mickeala Carter … former Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.) … former Sen. Gary Hart (D-Colo.) … former DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff … former VA Secretary Eric Shinseki ... Lindsay Biscardi … Taylor Keeney … Judy Rapfogel of GrandRap Strategies … Commerce’s Danielle Okai

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