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HOW BIDEN AND HARRIS SPENT TURKEY DAY — President JOE BIDEN, in his long-loved tradition of spending Thanksgiving with the family on Nantucket, spent some of Thursday giving our pumpkin pies to island firefighters, the AP’s Darlene Superville writes.

The president also called into the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade and spoke “with units from each of the six branches of the U.S. military, stationed in Europe, at sea, at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, the White House said.”

VP KAMALA HARRIS also called service members with second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF, thanking them for their service from L.A. The second couple also surprised volunteers in the Baldwin Hills neighborhood, passing out broccoli. We’re told she cooked and went to a friend’s place for dinner. (No word on whether she did the black-pepper-and-thyme dry-brined turkey she detailed to Jonathan Capehart in 2019.)

TWO HILL BATTLES TO WATCH — Among the litany of fights Congress will have to figure out in the coming months, two have especially significant policy and political ramifications as the incoming Republican House majority gets ready to complicate Biden’s presidency:

— A federal judge granted the Biden administration’s public wish of ending Title 42, the pandemic-era authority that kept the border closed to most migrants, but “experts in the immigration field say they’re expecting a stressful and chaotic transition when a court-ordered deadline to end the Trump directive is hit,” writes Myah Ward.

The end of the policy, Myah writes, could lead to a new rush of migrants to the border and turbocharge GOP attacks on Biden’s border policy: “The termination of Title 42 will mark both the close of a contentious legal battle and the dawn of a new political one, in which the administration’s migration policies will be tested once more.”

While DHS is signaling that it will “revert fully back” to pre-pandemic migrant processing procedures, Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS told the House Homeland Security Committee last week that officials would make “enhanced use” of expedited removal procedures for migrants who are “unable to establish a legal basis — such as an approved asylum claim” for seeking to cross the border.

— Meanwhile, the future of the expanded child tax credit remains in limbo, NYT’s Jason DeParle writes this morning. The pandemic-era provision that delivered monthly checks to U.S. families reduced child poverty by almost half, but the program lapsed even as evidence continues to mount that it “lowered hardship and nurtured children without reducing parental employment,” DeParle writes. “Some Democrats hope to revive payments to small groups of parents as part of a year-end tax deal, and despite Republicans taking control of the House in January, restoring the full program remains a long-term Democratic goal.”

Despite the strong policy case for reviving the program, the politics have been much more complex. While the checks were clearly popular with the folks who got them, “the program expired with little political backlash, and Democrats, accused of inflationary spending, said little about it in congressional campaigns.”

— File this one under unlikely but worth keeping an eye on: The high-profile mass shootings over the past week in Colorado and Virginia prompted Biden to dangle the prospect of an assault weapons ban again. Talking to reporters Thursday, the president said “I’m going to try” in the lame duck. “I got to make that assessment as I get in and start counting the votes.” More from NBC

TWO MIDTERM POSTMORTEMS — With just two House races and a Senate runoff still to be settled, two stories out this morning take a look back at two important aspects of the 2022 midterms:

— Despite all the fear and warnings, the AP’s Nicholas Riccardi writes, midterm voting actually “went fairly smoothly. There were some reports of unruly poll watchers disrupting voting, but they were scattered. Groups of armed vigilantes began watching over a handful of ballot drop boxes in Arizona until a judge ordered them to stay far away to ensure they would not intimidate voters. And … GOP-backed voting laws enacted after the 2020 election did not appear to cause major disruptions the way they did during the March primary in Texas.”

But the “routine foul-ups” that did happen hit Black and Latino voters the hardest. The NAACP Legal Defense Fund recorded long lines, especially in big cities. A shortage of paper ballots in Houston “led to long lines and triggered an investigation of the predominantly Democratic county by the state’s Republican authorities.”

The Brennan Center for Justice is also gathering data to determine whether new state voting laws led to lower turnout for minority voters: “Preliminary figures show turnout was lower this year than in the last midterm election four years ago in Florida, Georgia, Iowa and Texas — four states that passed significant voting restrictions since the 2020 election — although there could be a number of reasons why.”

— Our Jessica Piper and Ally Mutnick, meanwhile, take a look at how redistricting shaped the midterms this morning. While both parties looked to “press their advantages where they could,” Democrats saw their “most ruthless gerrymanders” thrown out by courts. With Republicans set to claim no more than a five-seat House majority, it’s clear that “the GOP could not have reclaimed control without their redistricting advantage.”

“Redistricting is not solely responsible for Democrats’ losses in New York,” the two report. But the fact that judges unwound Democratic maps in the Empire State and in Maryland “stands in stark contrast with states such as Florida, where courts declined to block Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ aggressive redistricting plan that allowed Republicans to pick up four seats despite an anti-gerrymandering amendment to the state’s constitution.”

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. The U.S. faces off with England at 2 p.m. today at the World Cup, where a tie or loss would force the Yanks to beat Iran next to stay alive. Drop us a line and tell us if you think the Stars and Stripes can pull off the upset: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

TOP-ED — DONALD TRUMP's quest for a third Republican presidential nomination will be all about the math, writes POLITICO Magazine columnist Jeff Greenfield.

“[I]f you really want to know whether Donald Trump is ascendant or in free fall, you might do better to focus on what might seem like a recipe for narcolepsy: the Republican Party’s delegate-selection process across the 50-plus states, territories and commonwealths. Over the next year and a half, there will be no better clue to the strength and weaknesses of Trump and his competitors.”

Greenfield essentially argues to ignore shiny things like debates and fundraising and instead zero in on state Republican parties that remain overwhelmingly MAGA-y after Trump spent years forcing out nonbelievers. Those parties will control the primaries, conventions and caucuses that will determine the 2024 nomination.

As veteran GOP lawyer BEN GINSBERG told Greenfield, Trump’s operation is already ahead of the game due to sheer experience: “They have a more in-depth knowledge and sophisticated knowledge of all the rules issues. If other campaigns don’t understand this, they move forward at their peril.”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

9 THINGS WE’RE WATCHING

1. IMMIGRATION FILES: Could there be one last burst of immigration legislation in the lame duck? Sens. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) and MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho) are trying to push through farmworker visa reform that could give 1 million people a pathway to citizenship, WSJ’s Kristina Peterson and Michelle Hackman report. The bill, which would provide more stability to agricultural workers and the industry, passed the House 20 months ago. Now supporters are scrambling to secure 60 votes in the upper chamber before Republicans take over the House. Bennet and Crapo are seeking a deal that would make some tweaks more friendly to employers, but if they get it through the Senate, the new version would go back to the House.

2. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: Stunning comments from top European officials accuse the U.S. of profiting from the war in Ukraine in this top talker from our colleagues Barbara Moens, Jakob Hanke Vela and Jacopo Barigazzi. There’s “mounting anger in Europe over American subsidies that threaten to wreck European industry” — a rare outbreak of tension among Ukraine’s Western backers that’s sure to be welcomed by Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. Europeans warn that Biden’s economic moves threaten to damage their countries and weaken their population’s willingness to sacrifice for Ukraine. And they say Biden seems to be ignorant of the problem.

“The Inflation Reduction Act has changed everything,” an EU diplomat tells them. “Is Washington still our ally or not?”

3. MUSK READS: Suspended Twitter accounts will broadly be granted “amnesty” and allowed to return to the platform if they haven’t broken the law or pushed major spam, ELON MUSK announced. Musk made the call after taking another unscientific poll on his account. The change will take effect next week, paving the way for various controversial figures to join Trump and Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) in returning to the platform. Supporters call the changes a victory for free speech, though “online safety experts predict [it] will spur a rise in harassment, hate speech and misinformation,” the AP reports.

Musk also announced that the $8 “Verified” subscription program will launch next week. More from Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Twitter closed its whole Brussels office, raising concerns that the platform might run afoul of the EU’s tough online safety regulations, FT’s Javier Espinoza, Ian Johnston and Cristina Criddle report.

4. 2024 WATCH: Democrats will meet for three days starting Thursday to figure out the order of states voting in the 2024 presidential primary — but plenty of the deciders are still waiting on the White House to weigh in, WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Tyler Pager report. The big questions they outline: Nevada vs. New Hampshire for the top spot, Michigan or Minnesota as an Iowa replacement and the possibility of a fifth entrant to the batch of earliest states. New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU warns that no matter what Dems do, state law requires the Granite State to go first: “Nevada wants to go first? Can we all have a good laugh at that? They’re still counting fricking votes.”

5. INFLATION NATION: Black Friday and the rest of the holiday season look challenging for poorer Americans, who are struggling with high prices and rising rates even as the wealthy recover well from the pandemic, NYT’s Jeanna Smialek reports from Boston. With the possibility of a recession looming, both inflation and the government’s solution for it promise to hurt low-income families. “Central bankers are trying to manage that without a recession that leaves families out of work,” Smialek writes. “But the adjustment period is already a painful one for many Americans — evidence that even if the central bank can pull off a so-called ‘soft landing,’ it won’t feel benign to everyone.”

6. CRISES OF THE FUTURE: “Dream homes and disasters: Is the government ready to confront climate risk?” by Zack Colman in Sand Springs, Okla., for POLITICO Magazine: “The fact that official Washington is finally addressing the concept of some areas being too vulnerable to insure is noteworthy … But a POLITICO investigation of federal programs showed that many of the taxpayer-backed programs are riddled with inconsistencies and bureaucracy, often impeding intended outcomes. That’s come to a head in Tulsa County.”

7. I’VE BEEN WORKING ON THE RAILROAD: Biden said Thursday that his administration is — once again — trying to stave off a major railroad strike that could hinder the U.S. economy. Declining to offer the specifics in “the middle of negotiations,” the president told reporters on Nantucket that he hasn’t gotten personally involved, but his team has been in the room with parties on both sides. More from Reuters

8. KNOWING DELIA RAMIREZ: “A Progressive Latina Thinks Democrats Are Blowing It with Hispanic Voters,” by Minho Kim in Addison, Ill., for POLITICO Magazine: “Democrats, [the congresswoman-elect] believed, were losing Hispanic voters because they weren’t talking to them the right way. And that means telling working-class Latinos the party is going to fight for them against the ‘rigged’ economic system that favors, as she puts it, ‘a bunch of riquillos,’ or rich people. What brings out working Latino families to vote, Ramirez argues, is a straightforward economically progressive message — not threats to democracy or rhetoric on social justice issues but pocketbook issues such as health care and housing.”

9. THE TRUMP STIGMA: Former Surgeon General JEROME ADAMS gets the WaPo Style section treatment from Manuel Roig-Franzia, who writes that the doctor’s Trump association has made it hard for him to find work even as his family has battled against a recurrence of his wife’s melanoma. “Lacey saw it coming. She said she ‘hated Trump’ and did not want her husband to leave his comfortable life in Indiana … but her husband talked her into supporting their move by saying he thought he could make a bigger difference inside the administration than outside it … Now Jerome bristles at his forever label as ‘Trump’s surgeon general.’”

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Toluse Olorunnipa, Susan Page, Dave Philipps and Heidi Przybyla.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

MSNBC“The Sunday Show”: Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) … Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) … Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-U.S. Virgin Islands) … Colorado state Rep. Leslie Herod … Anthony Fauci … Tia Mitchell.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Anthony Fauci … Colorado Gov. Jared Polis … David Beasley.

FOX “Fox News Sunday,” guest-anchored by Jennifer Griffin: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) … Buzz Bissinger. Panel: Dan Hoffman, Olivia Beavers, Jonathan Swan and Juan Williams. National security panel: Dmitri Alperovitch and Matthew Kroenig.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Panel: Matt Gorman, Maria Teresa Kumar, Susan Page and Reid Wilson.

E. Jean Carroll filed a new suit against Donald Trump for battery and defamation.

Karine Jean-Pierre wants Americans to treat themselves.

ENGAGED — Kevin Walling, a VP at HGCreative and former Biden surrogate, proposed to Alex Stroman, director of state, indigenous and community relations at TC Energy and an RNC alum, at the Mount Juliet Estate in Kilkenny, Ireland, on a family Thanksgiving vacation through Europe. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) … CNN’s Abby Phillip … Jenna Bush Hager … Barbara Pierce Bush … White House’s Shilpa Phadke … EEOC’s Keith Sonderling … Mark Bloomfield of the American Council for Capital Formation … Robert Steurer … Bill Dauster … Lee Dunn … Jason Rae … Insider’s Brent Griffiths … Doug Troutman … States Newsroom’s Kira Lerner … Reuters’ Sarah Lynch … Loully Saney of Day One Project … Eric Oginsky … former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich … former New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (7-0) … Colin Crowell … Targeted Victory’s Isabella Victorio … Alexandra Givens … Social Driver’s Anthony Shop … Far Post Media’s David Almacy

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