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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

“It’s tough to make predictions,” a famous philosopher once said, “especially about the future.”

It’s a good day for that reminder, as politics news is brimming over with predictions that went awry, several developments in the most unpredictable end-of-the-year storylines and some predictably unpredictable comments from two of the masters of the attention economy.

Bad predictions …

1. Given President JOE BIDEN’s recent successes and DONALD TRUMP’s recent failures, many predicted that Democratic voters would be clamoring for Biden’s renomination and that Republican voters would be abandoning Trump. But it’s the other way around.

A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows that only 37% of Republicans say they don’t want Trump to run in 2024, while 57% of Democrats say they don’t want Biden to run.

2. Republicans (and some Democrats) predicted that 2022 would be the year that Latino voters swung to the GOP. But, especially in the Southwest, Democrats held their margins with this voting bloc. (Florida was a different story.)

NBC’s Natasha Korecki: “In Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, Latinos have stuck with Democrats, and that has helped power the party’s gains across a region where Latino population growth has exploded. It belies a conventional narrative that Democrats were universally ceding Latino voters to the Republican Party, a storyline repeated throughout the run-up to the Nov. 8 midterms. Instead, indicators show the GOP in danger of losing Latino voters in this region, a prospect that could mean being boxed out of the Southwest for the long term.”

WaPo’s Dan Balz: “‘Outside of Florida, we saw a portrait of stability,’ said MELISSA MORALES, president of Somos Votantes, a Latino advocacy and organizing group that was working to support Democratic candidates. ‘We held on.’”

3. Georgia’s new voting law, according to many Democrats, was supposedly so restrictive and biased against the party’s most important constituencies — especially Black voters — that it amounted to “Jim Crow in the 21st Century,” as Biden put it. But in 2022, overall turnout as well as Black turnout was essentially unchanged from the last midterm.

While the most dire predictions about the Georgia law were clearly misplaced, the debate isn’t settled.

“Voting rights and community groups say their grassroots efforts to work around the new restrictions were key to the relatively strong turnout,” AP’s Ayanna Alexander and Gary Fields report today. “But they also caution that they don’t know how many people might have been deterred from voting.”

Others are more confident. “[I]f the point of Republican restrictive voting laws in Georgia and elsewhere was to suppress the vote to such an extent that Democrats couldn’t win, the plan failed,” The Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher wrote last week.

Still unpredictable …

1. We still don’t know if Congress will figure out an omnibus deal, even though the two parties are only $26 billion apart. Sen. RICHARD SHELBY (R-Ala.) had the best summary of the state of play. “We haven’t reached an agreement, we’re not near an agreement, but the circumstances are there … that we could reach one,” he told NBC’s Scott Wong and Sahil Kapur.

2. House GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY’s path to the speakership still has several more twists and turns yet to come. But he’s benefitting from internal divisions within the Freedom Caucus. “The group of conservatives wreaking havoc in the House GOP conference with their challenge to McCarthy’s bid for speaker is facing internal indecision that may hurt its ability to stay united,” report Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney.

Predictably unpredictable …

1. ELON MUSK, who has reinvented himself as a free speech warrior, told Twitter employees that if they are caught “sending detailed info to the media” then “Twitter will immediately seek damages,” according to Zoë Schiffer of Platformer.

2. Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) lamented to Manhattan Republicans at a gala Saturday night that “you can pick up a butt plug or a dildo at Target nowadays,” per the N.Y. Post. She also said that if “STEVE BANNON and I had organized” the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, “we would have won. Not to mention, we would’ve been armed.”

But some people are still predictable …

“You can’t trust anyone,” Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN told a reporter in Russia, per the NYT. “You can only trust me.”

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your 2023 predictions: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) on whether he’ll run for reelection in 2024, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “If I decide to run in this thing — and it’ll be a discussion that I have with my family over the holidays, because it is a big undertaking — I feel good about my chances.”

— ROGER CARSTENS, special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, on getting PAUL WHELAN home, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “We usually have to keep our cards close to our chest.” Dana Bash: “But are there cards?” Carstens: “There’s always cards. The options are always being evaluated. … And we have the commitment of this president and my office, certainly, to bring Paul Whelan home.” More from Carstens on the amazing full story of BRITTNEY GRINER getting on the plane home

— JOHN KIRBY on the criticism of giving up VIKTOR BOUT, on ABC’s “This Week”: “He would have gone free anyway in 2029. He wasn’t serving a life sentence. … Nobody’s doing back flips over there about the fact that Mr. Bout is a free man six years earlier than he would have been. But we’re going to protect our national security. And if Mr. Bout decides to go back to his previous line of work, then we’re going to do what we need to do to hold him accountable and to protect our interests.”

— MIKE POMPEO on when he’ll announce his 2024 plans, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I don’t know. We’re still thinking our way — we, Susan and me, my wife, are thinking our way through this.” Shannon Bream: “Clock is ticking.” Pompeo: “Yeah, I know the clock is ticking. But we have to make sure we get this right for America. It’s not about the Pompeos. This is about getting this right for the country. … Sometime in the spring, Shannon, you’ll know.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

— “U.S., Europe Need a Grand Bargain on Semiconductors and Electric Vehicles to Counter China,” by WSJ’s Greg Ip

— “Hello! You’ve Been Referred Here Because You’re Wrong About Twitter And Hunter Biden’s Laptop,” by Techdirt’s Mike Masnick

— “Excited about falling gas prices? Careful what you wish for,” by WaPo’s Catherine Rampell

— “We Have to Talk About Adolf Hitler,” by Bloomberg’s Andreas Kluth

— “Citadels of Neoliberalism or Bastions of Wokism?” by David Bell in The Chronicle of Higher Education

— “John Kennedy’s Washington schtick won’t deter Louisianans who hope he’ll run for governor,” by The Advocate’s Stephanie Grace

PHOTO OF THE DAY

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. STORY OF THE DAY: “A desperate road trip to remind America about its Afghan allies,” by WaPo’s Abigail Hauslohner in Omaha, Neb.: “It was day eight, mile No. 1,240, of a cross-country road trip hastily organized to win over Republican senators. At stake: a stagnating effort to permanently resettle tens of thousands of Afghans brought to the United States … Their journey was fueled by notions of military honor, loyalty and obligation. Out on the road, though, they found no guarantees that such convictions still resonate in a postwar America. Often, they encountered — both from the public and lawmakers’ staff — an uncomfortable reality in which the moral code that united so many amid the withdrawal had given way to an indifference.”

2. KNOWING KATHERINE CLARK: The Boston Globe’s Tal Kopan profiles House Dems’ incoming No. 2, who rose quickly through the Massachusetts political ranks with a focus on women, kids and families. “In interviews with more than two dozen of Clark’s current and former colleagues and allies, a portrait emerges of a tactical, thoughtful, and tough politician, one whose gift for quiet but clinically effective inside strategies has earned her the nickname among some in the House as ‘the silent assassin,’” Kopan writes. It’s also a “story of how a corps of women in Massachusetts saw an opportunity to not just break the glass ceiling with individual candidates, but to organize a force that could bust up one of the oldest old boys’ clubs.”

3. 2024 WATCH: FAIZ SHAKIR’s NYT op-ed criticizing the DNC’s plan to put South Carolina first in the presidential primary lineup sparked debate among Democrats all week. Now, House Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) is pushing back, telling The State’s Joseph Bustos that much of the criticism “is sour grapes coming from folks who feel they want to punish South Carolina for not voting for BERNIE SANDERS.” Clyburn added a direct attack on Shakir: “He seems to have some disdain for the South.” The rebuttal from the former Sanders campaign manager: “As someone advocating that Georgia and North Carolina would be far better choices than South Carolina, and as someone raised in the south, I’m sure this critique isn’t correct.”

Meanwhile, the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel and Courtney Crowder have a big three-part examination of how Iowa lost its pole position. “Iowa’s first-in-the-nation Democratic caucuses — the result of a happy accident that has, nonetheless, created and shaped presidential candidacies for 50 years — were doomed long before a few lines of code failed on Feb. 3, 2020,” they write.

4. GEORGIA ON MY MIND: “Does Stacey Abrams’s model for engaging voters die with her election loss?” by WaPo’s Cleve Wootson Jr. in Atlanta: “[STACEY] ABRAMS’s ascension paralleled an unprecedented influx of attention and funding to what her supporters see as the best way to engage reluctant voters … But her defeat is instant ammunition for those who would direct their energy and money to other strategies. … The consensus, at least in the short term, is that Abrams’s method worked for [Sen. RAPHAEL] WARNOCK in the Senate runoff.” Related read: “In Battleground Georgia, Republicans and Democrats Each Find a Star,” Bloomberg

5. BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT: The next two years of state-level fights over voting rules and district boundaries are already heating up, NYT’s Michael Wines reports in a broad overview of what’s coming next. Newly empowered Democrats in Michigan and Minnesota will push to expand access to voting, while Republicans in several states — especially Ohio — will make efforts to tighten it. In North Carolina, the GOP is expected to gerrymander Democrats out of at least two of their current congressional seats, thanks to a state Supreme Court that flipped control in November. And a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election in April looms as a pivotal moment for the future of that state’s district lines.

6. ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY: “The Senator Pushing Action on Abu Akleh Case Has a Message for Netanyahu’s Allies,” by Haaretz’s Ben Samuels: “Democratic Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN is leading congressional efforts calling for accountability over the killing of Palestinian-American journalist SHIREEN ABU AKLEH. He explains why it matters and warns of tensions between Washington and Jerusalem once [BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU’s far-right allies take power.”

7. RECENT HISTORY: ABU AGILA MASUD, a Libyan accused of involvement in the deadly 1988 Lockerbie bombing, is now in U.S. custody, officials said today. A court appearance in D.C. is expected next. “Last month it was reported that Masud had been kidnapped by a militia group in Libya, leading to speculation that he was going to be handed over to the American authorities to stand trial,” writes BBC’s David Cowan. The attack, which killed 270 people, has only resulted in one conviction previously.

8. SPY GAMES: “Rise of Open-Source Intelligence Tests U.S. Spies,” by WSJ’s Warren Strobel: “Supercharged by the Ukraine war, the rise of open-source intelligence, or OSINT, which comprises everything from commercial satellite imagery to social-media posts and purchasable databases, poses revolutionary challenges … Dow is just one of a fast-growing number of companies, nonprofit groups and countries transforming publicly available data into intelligence for strategic and economic advantage. China has the largest, most focused effort, while U.S. spy agencies, with deeply ingrained habits of operating in the shadows, have been slow to adapt to a world in which much of what is important isn’t secret.”

9. I’VE BEEN WORKING ON THE RAILROAD: “The Railroad Fight Was the Product of Eight Years of Militant Rank and File Organizing,” by The Intercept’s Ryan Grim: “‘We were hopeful that we were going to be able to get 10 or 11 [Republican senators] on the day of the vote based on conversations we were having back in November,’ [JEFF JOINES, legislative affairs director for BMWED,] said. … [But] the Chamber of Commerce announced it would ‘score’ the vote, meaning anybody who voted for it would be punished come election time. Four of the hard yeses – not so hard after all – evaporated after the Chamber threat, Joines said, with two of them saying it was specifically because of the Chamber letter.”

Maxwell Frost called into the “Who? Weekly” podcast.

Bill Cassidy got personal about his family’s mental health story.

Brendan Boyle took issue with this year’s Heisman Trophy.

John Fetterman, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Ayanna Pressley, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Eric Adams, Ella Emhoff, Christian Smalls and the James Webb Space Telescope made NYT Styles’ list of the most stylish people of the year.

IN MEMORIAM — “Pioneering Black feminist Dorothy Pitman Hughes dies at 84,” by AP’s Jocelyn Novek: “Hughes, a pioneering Black feminist, child welfare advocate and lifelong community activist who toured the country speaking with Gloria Steinem in the 1970s and appears with her in one of the most iconic photos of the second-wave feminist movement, has died.”

OUT AND ABOUT — MSNBC host and former Biden White House official Symone Sanders celebrated her 33rd birthday at Park at 14th on Saturday night. SPOTTED: Abby Phillip, Yamiche Alcindor, Rachel Scott, Vince Evans, Christopher Huntley, Rohini Kosoglu, Camila DeChalu, Sabrina Singh, Peter Velz, Maude Okrah, Alencia Johnson, Mercy Chikowore, Richard Fowler and Kevin Young. 

— The Washington Association of Black Journalists hosted its first Special Honors Awards Gala at the Eaton Hotel on Saturday night. Eugene and Fox 5 anchor Marissa Mitchell served as emcees for the sold out event celebrating D.C.-area Black journalists and comms professionals. Special guests included Mayor Muriel Bowser, Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Aisha Braveboy and actor Jalyn Hall from “Till.” Honorees included Hamil Harris, Nolan McCaskill, Lon Walls, Adelle Banks and Tracee Wilkins.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Cat Hamilton has started government tech company Demand Signal Inc. She most recently was VP of government affairs at American Defense International, and is a Henry Cuellar alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry … Kara Swisher … Gabe Amo ... POLITICO’s Marianne LeVine, Sarah Morgan, Aaron Albright and Lili Bayer … DOJ’s Perry Rosen … Molly Abboud ... Helen Robins … Emily Buchanan … Michael Allen of Beacon Global Strategies … PBS’ Margaret Hoover … SiriusXM’s Julie Mason … Elizabeth Spiers … Gideon Resnick … Jessica Seale … Atlantic Council’s William Wechsler … Maya Krishna-Rogers … Josh Jaye of the Tax Foundation … Len Khodorkovsky … Haydn Welch … Impactual’s Ashley Spillane … John Feehery of EFB Advocacy … Claudia Slacik … former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) … Rebecca Brocato … WaPo’s Elizabeth Dwoskin and Annabelle Timsit … Phillip Escoriaza … Peter True … Benjamin Tribbett … Shira Efron

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Corrections: Saturday’s Playbook misspelled Jane Mayer’s name. It also misstated Alex Koppelman’s work affiliation.