Poll: Susan Collins trails slightly in Maine Senate race
September 21, 2020
Democrat Sara Gideon leads GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine's critical Senate race, while Joe Biden holds a commanding double-digit edge over President Donald Trump in a state Trump lost only narrowly four years ago, according to a new poll released Monday.
Gideon leads Collins 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with only a small percent of voters choosing independent candidates and just 5 percent still undecided, according to the poll from The Boston Globe and Suffolk University.
The poll is consistent with recent surveys showing Gideon with a lead over Collins, the longtime GOP senator seeking a fifth term in the chamber. The race has garnered even more attention since the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg last week; Collins said over the weekend she opposes filling Ginsburg's seat before the November election.
The survey also shows a potential boost for Gideon through the state's use of ranked choice voting — a process by which voters rank their by order of preference, and if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, the last-place finisher is eliminated and those votes are reallocated to the voters' second choice. After one round of a ranked-choice simulation, Gideon was at 49 percent, compared to 42 percent for Collins.
Collins' image is even in the survey: 45 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of her, and the same percent view the senator unfavorably. Gideon's image is positive: 56 percent of voters view her favorably, and 37 percent view her unfavorably.
Biden leads Trump in the state, 51 percent to 39 percent. The presidential race is tight in the state's 2nd Congressional District: Biden at 47 percent, and Trump at 45 percent. Trump carried the 2nd District — and its one electoral vote — four years ago against Hillary Clinton.
Biden's image is above water, with 52 percent of voters viewing him favorably, and 41 percent holding an unfavorable opinion. Trump's image is nearly the opposite: 40 percent of voters view the president favorably, and 57 percent hold an unfavorable view of him.
A large Biden victory would force Collins to need to win over a larger number of crossover voters to win another term. Among voters who identify as Democrats in the initial matchup, Collins is receiving only 4 percent among likely voters who identify as Democrats. But Collins has a slight lead among independents, 42 percent to 35 percent.
The survey was conducted Sept. 17-20. Among the interviews with 500 likely voters, some were conducted prior to the news of Ginsburg's death, and some were conducted after. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Source: https://www.politico.com/
