THE BUZZ — TEMPERATURE CHECK: California voters are telegraphing a mixed midterm result.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and California’s overall direction drew divergent ratings in a new Public Policy Institute of California survey. If you’re Newsom, fresh off a resounding recall victory, the survey offers some heartening data points: Slightly more than three-fifths of voters approve of how the governor is handling jobs and the economy and public education, both upticks from recent polls (Newsom was at 56-43 on the economy back in July, six points lower). That cements Newsom’s status as the clear favorite to win the 2022 gubernatorial and secure a second term.

But down-ballot races could be more challenging for Democratic incumbents. Voters may look positively upon Newsom’s economic record, but they feel far more pessimistic about the state’s fiscal trendlines. Pick your benchmark: A majority expects bad, rather than good, economic times over the next year and the next five years, with a majority also saying their finances are neither worse nor better than a year ago; a quarter are considering moving out of California to find better jobs; a majority think the American dream is more elusive in California; more than two-thirds think children will be worse off than their parents; and nearly three-quarters see the gap between rich and poor widening.

It’s an immutable rule of politics that dissatisfied voters tend to punish the party in power — particularly in the first midterm election after the White House changes hands. Democrats have already begun girding for a catastrophic 2022 result. A pervasively bleak outlook on the economy could make voters more inclined to throw out the party now in control of Congress, although some of that blowback could also greet frontline California Republicans. Voters were most pessimistic about the economy in the Orange County/San Diego area, which encompasses some of the most competitive races, followed by the Central Valley and L.A.

That could spell split votes in competitive districts, PPIC CEO Mark Baldassare told us, with voters backing the governor but punishing Democratic lawmakers. “Issues like the economy and schools are going to play prominent roles in the outcomes of those elections, in those parts of the state where we’ll see the legislative battlegrounds,” he said. He predicted that down-ballot candidates may not be able to ride Newsom’s coattails in areas that were closely divided on the recall question — think counties like Fresno, Merced, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino.

RECALL REDUX: Per the survey, voters are largely receptive to an effort by lawmakers and Secretary of State Shirley Weber to overhaul the recall process — an effort that has accelerated since Newsom defeated the recall, with a constitutional amendment possibly going before voters next year. PPIC found half of voters think the recall process merits “major” changes. Nearly three-quarters support a runoff if no replacement candidate gets a majority on the first vote. About two-thirds support increasing the number of signatures required to qualify a recall and allowing recalls only for “illegal or unethical activity.” All of those proposals gained a few points of support since the last PPIC survey, taken pre-recall. Read Jeremy’s story for more.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. California’s redistricting commission has been planning to release draft maps of new districts today, nearly a week before they’re legally required to on Nov. 15. The last week has seen a frenetic leadup of commissioners tearing up and redrawing potential maps in real time during marathon meetings.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit [email protected] or follow me on Twitter @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I was ready to go and I had that dinner – a lot of you know this dinner – with the family, and the kids literally, they kind of had an intervention, they said they couldn’t believe I that was going to miss Halloween … and I woke up that next morning with something probably familiar to a lot of parents, that knot in your stomach, that I had no damn choice. I had to cancel that trip.” Gov. Gavin Newsom explains publicly for the first time why he pulled out of the climate conference in Scotland.

TWEET OF THE DAY: California Redistricting Commissioner @sarasadhwani on where the map-drawing stands: “Yesterday we took a chainsaw to our congressional maps. After 12 hours+ of work we have a basic architecture that reflects a lot of coi input and gets close to meeting our constitutional requirements. In future we will take a scalpel to make refinements. #Redistricting”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

HIATUS ALERT — California Playbook will be off the week of November 15-19.

GETTY GLAM: A governor, a mayor and a speaker of the House walk into the opulent wedding of a politically connected family’s scion.

It’s no joke. There’s been quite a stir over the images from Ivy Getty’s extravagant San Francisco nuptials, where attendees included San Francisco Mayor London Breed, Speaker/officiant Nancy Pelosi and Newsom — long a business and political beneficiary of the Getty family and patriarch Gordon. Vogue’s report and photo spread from the glittering event, in which masks are scarcely visible, has spurred followup coverage from the Daily Beast, the Washington Examiner and others. There were accusations of pandemic hypocrisy from the right — French Laundry references abounded — and broadsides from the left against Pelosi for participating in an oil heiress’s nuptials while much of the country struggles. “Powerful editorial in support of a wealth tax,” quipped Washington Post reporter Philip Bump.

WELCOME BACK — “‘Finally, we are free.’ An emotional homecoming for Sacramento students stuck in Afghanistan,” by The Sac Bee’s Sawsan Morrar, Jason Pohl and Renée C. Byer: “The three Sacramento City Unified children and their parents have returned home to Sacramento after months of uncertainty and scrambling across Afghanistan while coordinating with a principal half a world away. That journey culminated with a return to classes Monday.”

— “USC Pushed a $115,000 Online Degree. Graduates Got Low Salaries, Huge Debts,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Lisa Bannon and Andrea Fuller: “The prestigious private university hired a for-profit firm to recruit students to its social-work master’s program; ‘You don’t feel like you’re part of an elite school.’”

WATCH THIS — “Blue States, You’re the Problem,” opines The NYT’s Johnny Harris and Binyamin Appelbaum: “It is in the blue states where affordable housing is often hardest to find, there are some of the most acute disparities in education funding and economic inequality is increasing most quickly.”

BIG TECH — California lawmakers plot clampdown on social media troubles, by POLITICO’s Susannah Luthi: Over an hours-long informational Senate Judiciary Committee panel Tuesday focused on misinformation, exploitation and other social media concerns, they grappled with how much they can force major companies to reveal about their inner workings without running afoul of constitutional concerns and federal law.

BROWN SPEAKS UP — “Jerry Brown focuses on saving California forests from fires,” by the AP’s Kathleen Ronayne: “As smoke lingered in the air amid another destructive California wildfire season, former Gov. Jerry Brown invited a group to his ranch for an urgent conversation: What more could be done to save California’s forests from wildfires?”

CLIMATE PLEDGE — "As L.A. fights port gridlock, U.S. and global leaders pledge to curb shipping emissions," by the LA Times' Anna M. Phillips: "The United States, Britain and 17 other countries committed at the United Nations global climate summit Wednesday to curb emissions from the shipping industry by creating zero-emission shipping routes, a move that comes amid growing concern over shoreline air pollution from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach."

MAKING AMENDS — “S.F. could become 4th California city to apologize to its Chinese community. Three students are the reason why,” by the SF Chronicle’s Shwanika Narayan: “If adopted, San Francisco would become the fourth California city to apologize for historical wrongs that still haunt the present.”

VEGETABLES & VACCINATIONS — “Why California’s lettuce lands are unlikely vaccination leaders,” by Zócalo Public Square’s Joe Mathews: “If demographics and geography really were COVID destiny, then Gonzales—a small, working-class town with a young, overwhelmingly Latino population in rural California—would be a pandemic disaster. Instead, Gonzales is among California’s most vaccinated places. In this Salinas Valley town of 9,000, where fewer than 10 percent of adults have a college degree, 98 percent of eligible residents have received at least one dose.”

ANXIOUS ANCHOR-OUTS — “They live rent-free on San Francisco Bay. But now their ‘floating homeless encampment’ faces extinction,” by the LA Times’ Rachel Scheier: “The battle has pitted the forces of gentrification against Sausalito’s fading identity as a freewheeling maritime town that has always been a refuge for rebels and dropouts.”

— “UCLA sources: Joseph Ladapo did not treat COVID-19 patients,” by Florida Politics’ Scott Powers: “Florida’s new Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo did not treat COVID-19 patients at UCLA as he has asserted, charges a report that aired Monday night on MSNBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show.

— “Meet the 110-year-old California woman who survived the 1918 pandemic. What she remembers,” by The Sac Bee’s Kristin Lam.

COVID COSTS — "COVID-19 has cost LAFD $22.5 million in overtime, much of it to cover for sick firefighters," by the LA Times' Kevin Rector: "While firefighters and their union have sued over the mandate and warned of slowed response times if it is implemented in full, far less has been said about these ever-growing costs of an undervaccinated workforce — which medical experts and ethicists said is a mistake."

— "California Scrutinizes Doctors as Parents Seek Exemptions From School Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate," by The Wall Street Journal's Tawnell D. Hobbs: "Improper medical exemptions are being revoked, pushing some parents to come up with other ways around the new mandate: sympathetic doctors, home schooling, moving away."

CHASING CHESA — “Enough signatures verified to vote on recall of SF DA Chesa Boudin, election officials say,” via KGO.

— "Central Valley Democrat accused of misusing campaign funds by Republican watchdog," by The Sac Bee's Gillian Brassil: "California Assemblyman Rudy Salas announced his campaign for Congress in late October, entering the race to contest Rep. David Valadao. Less than three weeks later, a right-leaning federal watchdog filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission over whether his campaign misappropriated funds from his state Assembly run for his national one based on taped-up signs used at his launch event."

SCHOOL BOARD RECALL — “Mayor Breed backs recall of three San Francisco school board members: 'Our kids must come first,’” by the SF Chronicle’s Jill Tucker: Her position “counters critics who have argued the recall is a Republican-led effort to dismantle a progressive school board.’”

NATIONAL RIPPLES — “The Parental Revolution Is Bigger Than Critical Race Theory,” by POLITICO’s Michael Kruse.

— “Latino Leaders Urge Redistricting Commission, Elected Officials to Adopt Unity Map,” by via NBC Bay Area: “On Monday morning, representatives from several Latino and social justice organizations gathered to release an open letter urging the Citizen Redistricting Commission and elected to officials to ‘push back against voter suppression targeting Latinx neighborhoods and communities of color’ by adopting the San Jose Unity Map.”

WHO TO BLAME? — “‘Rust’ shooting: Who could face criminal charges in death of Halyna Hutchins?” by the LA Times’ James Queally: “Unsurprisingly, many have focused on the man who was holding the weapon when it went off: actor Alec Baldwin. … But legal experts and former law enforcement officials say despite the fact that he was holding the Colt .45 revolver that killed Hutchins and wounded director Joel Souza, Baldwin may actually face the least threat of criminal prosecution out of anyone who handled the weapon that day.”

— “Frank Somerville says he’s done at KTVU, apologizes to newsroom for ‘drama,’” by The Mercury News’ Martha Ross: “Somerville said Tuesday that he expects he has anchored his last newscast at KTVU, given that management hasn’t contacted him since he was suspended in September for an off-air dispute about coverage of the Gabby Petito case. ‘All indications are that I’m never going to anchor at Channel 2 again,’ the longtime anchor said in an interview with the Bay Area News Group.”

SCORPION SUBMARINE — “Long Beach mulls lawsuit over abandoned Soviet submarine,” by Long Beach Post’s Kelly Puente.

SWEET — “See's at 100: Bay Area residents look back at the iconic candy brand,” by the SF Chronicle’s Tanay Warerkar.

— “Mask Refusal Leads to Stabbing at California Grocery Store,” by Newsweek’s Natalie Colarossi.

— “‘In some sense his good work lives on’: Man who received organs from Oakland murder victim shows up with family at sentencing hearing,” by the East Bay Times’ Nate Gartrell.

— “Getting Back to Normal Is Only Possible Until You Test Positive,” opines Alexis C. Madrigal in the Atlantic.

— “Ventura County teacher removed from school after rant against vaccines and Biden,” by the LA Times’ Christian Martinez.

Kate Gould of Rep. Ro Khanna’s office

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