With an assist from Nicholas Wu, Sarah Ferris and Jordain Carney

CLOSE TO CONTROL— Republicans woke up this morning within one seat of taking the House majority, having locked up 217 wins to this point. Democrats' chances of overtaking the GOP have dimmed and are nearly impossible. There are just 14 House seats that remain uncalled at this point and Democrats would have to win every single one to eclipse Republicans, which is unlikely. Races called last night in Arizona and California changed the map, with GOP Rep. David Schweikert holding onto Arizona’s first district and GOP Reps. Michelle Steel and Ken Calvert both winning in their Southern California districts.

Perfect timing as House Republicans vote today on a whole roster of conference leadership positions. More on that below.

DCCC DELIBERATIONS — Several lawmakers in the progressive “squad” told Nicholas Monday evening they had concerns about a proposal to have House Democrats’ leadership appoint the head of their campaign arm.

“I think it is better to keep it as an elected position. Then we get to have a voice on who ends up being in that position,” Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) told Nicholas. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said there were “ongoing conversations” about the proposal, but “I think there's always concerns in concentrating further power into the speakership.”

And Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) said having an election would ensure “everyone has more of a voice in the matter and you kind of make them work for it.” He was concerned an appointed position would be “more based on their relationship with leadership…you don't know who's going to be in leadership.”

The squad generally doesn’t pay dues to the DCCC and prefers to support Democratic candidates through other means, but the concern among House Democrats’ left flank comes as angst over the DCCC roils the party. An under-the-radar Democratic panel set to recommend any potential procedural changes to the rest of the caucus held another “listening session” with lawmakers on Monday evening, and the full House Democratic Caucus can vote to approve or reject the proposals later.

GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, November 15, where House Republicans will duke it out for conference leadership slots.

HOW THE GOP ALMOST BLEW IT, BUT DIDN’T— Ally Mutnick, Sarah Ferris and Elena Schneider have a not-to-be-missed look at the ups and downs as election day bore down.

“The GOP’s successes in boosting the strongest recruits yielded crucial pickups that may yet make the difference between winning and losing the chamber. But the impossible task of shaping every primary meant weak nominees cost them in several places,” write the trio.

Other nuggets of note:

— September slump: The GOP’s internal modeling in September showed that it could lose the House. (At every other point, the models showed Republicans winning.)

— Abortion plan: The NRCC held a summit with top strategists in late summer to debate whether Republicans should respond to the Dem’s abortion momentum. They ultimately decided not to respond at all — staying focused on the economy.

— Maloney’s mouth: One day after conceding, DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.) defiantly told his staff: “Those motherfuckers wasted a lot of money on me.” Republicans spent roughly $10 million to defeat him.

— The Dobbs difference: In weekly Sunday night phone calls, NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) would reassure GOP candidates not to veer from the economy unless there was empirical data demonstrating the need to respond on abortion.

— Trump talks: House Minority Leader McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Trump have met roughly a dozen times to discuss GOP candidates, which helped lead to Trump’s endorsement of key recruits like Monica De La Cruz in Texas. It started in early 2020, when McCarthy and his aides gathered in the Yellow Oval Room of the White House with Trump to highlight some top House recruits.

EYE ON OVERSIGHT — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has “probably got a pretty good shot” at getting a seat on the Oversight Committee next year, according to incoming chair James Comer (R-Ky.), who noted that she can indicate it’s her first choice when she requests committee assignments. MTG has made no secret of the fact that she wants a seat on Oversight, saying on Monday that it’s the committee she’s asked for and while “I haven’t been promised anything… Oversight has been talked about a lot for me.” She’s likely to have fierce competition for a seat when Steering makes its picks. Comer said that it’s one of the top requested panels and that almost every freshman he has met wants a seat. But a seat on the committee would give Greene, who was booted off her committees last year and whose rhetoric has caused headaches for her GOP colleagues, a foothold into some of a GOP-led House’s most high-profile investigations, including a probe of Hunter Biden that is supposed to be led by the Oversight panel.

DEMOCRATS’ ABORTION FIREWALL— Senate Democrats owe their majority in next year’s Congress to a winning message from Catherine Cortez Masto emphasizing abortion rights. But with another razor-thin majority and Republicans expected to control the House, Democrats won’t be able to codify the abortion rights once protected by Roe v. Wade.

Cortez Masto sees her majority-making win as key to preventing further attempts by Republicans to limit abortion access: “By re-electing me, we’ve just now created a backstop in the Senate from the Republicans trying to put a federal abortion ban ... on the floor of the Senate,” she told Marianne in an interview.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wants to vote on abortion rights legislation, even if it can’t pass, to “make sure that every Republican is on the record on abortion.” But she isn’t calling for Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) proposed 15-week abortion ban bill to come to the floor. “That thing is so horrible, I don’t want to see it any place except in the bottom of the trash barrel,” she said. More from Marianne and Holly Otterbein on Democrats calculations post-Roe.

SCHUMER SIT-DOWN — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wants more bipartisan deals and more Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in the new Congress.

When asked whether the speaker should stay on as House Democratic leader, the Senate majority leader was unequivocal: “I hope she does, I love her,” he told Marianne and Burgess in a 25-minute interview on Monday. More from that interview.

MOVING TOWARDS MARRIAGE— The Senate will begin action this week on a bill that would codify marriage equality into federal law.

“I want to be clear: This bill is not a theoretical exercise,” Schumer said on the Senate floor, setting up a Wednesday procedural vote. “It’s as real as it gets.”

The House passed the measure in July but the Senate punted the bill until after the midterm elections in order to get 10 Republicans on board, which might be easier if their electoral fates were secured.

“It's an issue where the American people support gay marriage and the ability for people to get married in one state and have their be honored in another state,” Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), one of the bill’s cosponsors, said on Monday. “So I think Congress is a little behind the American people on it.”

The bill would require reciprocity between states and also repeal the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which remained on the books despite being declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court’s Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.

GOP LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS — Stay tuned. Today McCarthy is slated as the GOP conference’s choice for speaker, but he is expected to face a symbolic challenger from The House Freedom Caucus as its members flex their sway in Republicans’ slim majority.

There are so many races to watch and Olivia, Sarah and Jordain have the latest after talking to Republicans all day yesterday.

RULES ROUNDTABLE — The House GOP leadership fights are a precursor to deliberation over a House Rules package for the new Congress that will let Republicans, who’ve been exasperated with their minority role, to reshape how the House operates. The right flank of the GOP held a roundtable discussion yesterday, hosted by Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), to make its case about House rules and process changes those members want on the table. In addition to the controversial “motion to vacate the chair,” which empowers members to hold a vote to remove the Speaker, the House Freedom Caucus has been shopping around changes that would empower committees and engage a broader swath of rank-and-file members in policymaking. Some are calling for committee members to decide who will become their chair, lessening the influence of the powerful Steering Committee.

FIRST IN HUDDLE: The House Freedom Caucus isn’t the only group pitching House Rules proposals. The Lincoln Network, a center-right policy organization, has been shopping around its own set of proposals on Capitol Hill for months. The Lincoln Network proposal, obtained by POLITICO, has some common ground with the Freedom Caucus’ vision for House Rules.

“We share the goal of making the House of Representatives more pluralistic and deliberative, as opposed to centralized and tightly controlled — as we’ve seen over the past several years,” Zach Graves, head of policy at the Lincoln Network, told Huddle.

But the group’s proposal is also rooted in institutional reform, Congressional capacity and modernization and was developed with bipartisan consultation and an eye for making the chamber work more effectively, rather than strengthening power of certain players.

The Lincoln Network and the Freedom Caucus both want to see proxy voting eliminated, a more open amendment process on the floor and more deference to the oft-waived three-day-rule that requires bill text to be available to members three days before floor consideration.

Other proposals from Lincoln Network align closely with the Select Committee on Modernization of Congress’ recommendations, from revitalizing staff training and professional development to bolstering the House’s technology infrastructure. They also want to solve the scheduling nightmares members face on Capitol Hill by introducing block scheduling and an internal system to allow committee chairs to coordinate and avoid double and triple booking their committee members.

Inch by inch, row by row… Gonna make these caucus comms grow. That’s what Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is trying to tell his colleagues as he makes his bid for co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee. On Monday he was hitting up 170 offices to make his pitch, complete with a truly tiny potted plant. He rolled dozens around Rayburn on a cart. And here are close-ups of the front and back of the flier accompanying each plant. Others in the running for DPCC co-chair include Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.).

Lame duck lunch… This Thursday the Rayburn Cafeteria will feature “modern, fast casual Indian food” from Rasa and in Longworth you can get “Planta BYO Nacho Bowls.” And soon new pop-ups are headed to the House. Here’s what’s headed to Longworth soon:

· November 29 - December 2: Arepas

· December 5 - 8: Semolina’s Pasta Bar

· December 12 - 15: Kalamata BYO Bowls

QUICK LINKS 

Republicans cringe as Trump 2024 approaches, from Burgess, Olivia and Andrew

White House to seek more covid funding in lame-duck session, from Dan Diamond at The Washington Post

With some races still uncalled, new members of Congress descend on Washington, from Jim Saksa at CQ Roll Call

TRANSITIONS 

Maggie Woodin is now manager of federal affairs for the Great Lakes Region at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. She was most recently legislative director for Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.).

Shana Mansbach is now speechwriter and senior adviser to the secretary at the State Department. Mansbach, a former director of speechwriting for Pelosi, most recently was deputy director of communications for Pelosi and is an Obama State Department alum.

John Kraus is joining HHS as deputy assistant secretary for public affairs/public health. He previously was comms director for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House convenes at noon for legislative business.

The Senate convenes at 11 a.m.

AROUND THE HILL

8 a.m. 118th Congress Member-Elect class photo (House Steps).

9:30 a.m. Reps. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.) and Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus members hold a press conference on the Peace on the Korean Peninsula Act. (House Triangle)

10:05 a.m. Schumer meets with Senators-Elect John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.). (S-224)

10:45 a.m. House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) hold their weekly news conference. (Studio A)

2 p.m. Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans hold their separate post-policy lunch press conferences. (Ohio Clock Corridor)

MONDAY’S WINNER:Mike Ryan correctly answered that in nine of the eleven 21st century lame duck sessions, Congress passed regular appropriations bills or continuing resolutions to maintain government funding.

TODAY’S QUESTION: Who administers the oath of office to the Speaker on the first day of a new Congress?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [email protected]

GET HUDDLEemailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus