TALKING ABOUT '22: Only 265 days until the June primary!

Let's hope we get a little breather before we head into another campaign. Heck, we still don't know the maps for next year's legislative and congressional contests because redistricting fell behind during the pandemic.

But we can still talk about how the recall outcome sets up the 2022 gubernatorial contest. As every loyal Playbook reader knows by now, Newsom clobbered the recall, while Larry Elder took nearly half of the replacement candidate votes.

The Democratic governor suggested last night that the election was a mandate on how Californians feel about his Covid-19 policies and the state's progressive approach on social justice, women's rights and the environment. The huge margin of victory — currently around 27 percentage points — makes Newsom a heavy favorite to win re-election next year.

If a surprise candidate emerges with high name ID, cash and appeal among a broad section of voters, maybe Newsom starts to sweat. But no such candidate exists at the moment. And if the roster of replacement candidates is looking for an encore, the governor is in great shape.

ROCK, MEET HARD PLACE: California Republicans are stuck. The base loves Elder, who coalesced support overnight from conservatives and isn't afraid to say what's on his mind, no matter how controversial. He's an engaging personality who has a well-honed ability to connect with voters better than any of his GOP rivals. And he's the perfect foil for Newsom to use to build support.

Jeff Corless, a consultant for Elder, said Wednesday at the Sacramento Press Club post-mortem that the recall candidate hasn't decided yet whether to run next year. Ron Nehring, who advised Kevin Faulconer, said he likewise didn't know if Faulconer would run, though he hoped the former San Diego mayor would.

For years, California GOP activists have been convinced that the state's voters someday would move rightward and embrace their policies, even as the electorate has moved further away. They were convinced this might have been the year, especially after business and school closures along with the state's significant housing and homelessness problems.

But voters didn't see a better ballot option than Newsom to fix those problems, and a majority of voters support the governor's Covid-19 approach. As we've learned, anything can happen in nine months of a pandemic, but right now, Republicans lack a clear path to the California governorship and are gravitating toward a candidate Newsom would love to face again.

HAPPY WEDNESDAY! Welcome to California PM Playbook, a new POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check of California politics. This is the final week for this installment. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to [email protected] and [email protected]. We're also on Twitter: @kyamamura or @katymurphy.

SAYING SOMETHING WITHOUT SAYING: Newsom continued to drop hints Wednesday that he's leaning against granting parole for Sirhan Sirhan, who assassinated 1968 Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy in Los Angeles.

Toward the close of his Tuesday night victory speech, Newsom said he was "resolved in the spirit of my political hero, Robert Kennedy, to make more gentle the life of this world," borrowing an RFK quote after the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr.

Ears perked up at that reference, given the growing controversy over whether Sirhan should be freed from a California prison. A two-person panel recommended last month that he be paroled, but the decision has to go to the full parole board before coming to Newsom for a final call.

On Wednesday, Newsom came about as close as one can without saying he plans to block parole. The governor was asked by POLITICO in late August if he had decided, and Newsom said he could not comment because he wanted to preserve the integrity of the parole board's review process. But Newsom went on to describe his admiration for RFK.

The governor went into further detail Wednesday, describing how he has RFK photos in his governor's office and his home office, including one of Kennedy and his father that was signed to his mother right before Kennedy was killed. "I think that gives you a sense of where I might be leaning. But right now, I don't want to lean into that process and create problems."

Asked if it should be written that he is leaning toward blocking parole for Sirhan, Newsom said, "I would ask you humbly not to say that because I don't want to prejudice any further this process, but I also don't want to leave people wanting. Because I gotta tell you, interestingly, this is very raw and emotional for people."

DATA HEAD: Nearly 64 percent of voters have rejected the recall, based on results from 9.1 million ballots counted statewide so far. That's a slight drop from initial tallies that were closer to a 2-to-1 ratio, but still a massive gap. All the numbers in this section are expected to change as more ballots get counted.

Only 5.1 million voters answered the replacement ballot question, meaning a good 45 percent left their ballots blank on that part, as Newsom and Democrats advised.

Elder easily topped the replacement candidate list with 47 percent support (although that amounts to 26 percent of all ballots cast when you consider how many were left blank on question 2). Democrat Kevin Paffrath, of "Meet Kevin" YouTube fame, came in second place at 9.8 percent, while Faulconer was third with 8.6 percent.

The biggest shocker here was fourth-place finisher Brandon Ross, a Democrat who was listed as "Physician/Attorney" on the ballot. Ross had 5.6 percent, so far outpacing Republicans John Cox (4.4 percent) and Kevin Kiley (3.2 percent). And Ross didn't even have a live bear or $7 million in TV ads.

As for former Olympian and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner? She landed in 13th with 1.1 percent. That's a big fall, considering on July 9 she held a Sacramento press conference where she said, "Honestly, I'm not concerned about the polling. I guarantee you that I am in the lead."

Compiled by Colby Bermel

— Newsom visited the Melrose Leadership Academy in Oakland to highlight school reopenings and vaccination progress. When asked whether he felt his gubernatorial approach was vindicated by last night's result, Newsom said: "This is a gift to represent the fifth-largest economy in the world ... To have the privilege of trying to do my best every single day. I'm iterative, trying things. Things work, things don't. To deal with a recall is humbling."

— Republican Larry Elder on Wednesday highlighted that he was the by far the leading replacement candidate, although that result is moot due to Newsom's win on the first question. He was also interviewed Wednesday by Rabbi Shmuley Boteach. The Jewish leader characterized Elder as "a National leader in the wake of the California governor's race." Elder also reinforced a familiar talking point on Twitter: "Only in America can a black person become President or a white supremacist."

— Democrat Kevin Paffrath, second among replacement candidates behind Elder, took a shot at the Republican on Tuesday night: "Well Larry, ya f'd up. Ya gave Newsom an out and made him win. Don't do it again in 22. Let the moderates fight Newsom on policy so he burns to the ground and then we can fight next time. Get out of the way in the 22 primaries; or we'll just repeat this result." Paffrath also offered a tease Wednesday: "Who wants a new Mayor in San Francisco?" with the winking emoji, a reference to him being the top vote-getter in that county.

— Republican Kevin Kiley on Wednesday shared his perspective on the recall results: "Movements of historic significance rarely achieve a total triumph on the first attempt. They also rarely come as close as we did. A month ago polls showed a tie. Rest up, relax, recharge, and get ready. The fight for California's future has only just begun."

— Republican Kevin Faulconer on Tuesday night thanked his supporters and shared his political perspective: "The path to victory in California is to win by addition — bringing folks together across the spectrum. This race became dominated by national, partisan politics. I trust the democratic process and know Californians deserve a governor focused on solving California's problems."

— Republican John Cox on Wednesday also thanked his supporters: "Thank you to all who campaigned to recall @GavinNewsom and those who fought to get this recall on the ballot. The fight is not over. California still needs fixing and we must hold the powerful accountable to do it. I hope you'll join me in the effort."

FIGHT CLUB: It hasn't even been 24 hours, so the recall wounds are still fresh.

Nehring from Team Faulconer and Corless from Team Elder made for entertaining sparring partners during the virtual Sacramento Press Club's post-mortem event during the lunch hour today. Nehring was doing most of the jabbing, while Corless was content to point to the scoreboard by the end.

Nehring's biggest beef was that Elder referred to "election integrity" concerns in the final week and launched a "Fight California Election Fraud!" website. Nehring blamed Elder for scaring Republicans off the election entirely, right in the window when most of them had planned to vote.

"When a candidate who came to represent the 'yes on recall' side asserts before the votes were counted, right here in black and white, that the election was stolen on a site that their ballot committee paid for, that is bulls---," Nehring said. "And lying to Republicans claiming an election was stolen, before a single vote or result had been published, is grossly irresponsible and not resultant to election integrity."

Corless said Elder had been hearing from voters about irregularities in the process on the campaign trail, so it was a reasonable issue to raise. He also said there was no advertising behind the website and that Elder wasn't promoting it, suggesting it was just a way for voters to report any problems.

Toward the end of the event, Nehring and Corless couldn't help but clash again. It ended with Corless saying he'd love to sit down in person with Nehring and dissect the 2.3 million votes that Elder received and why Faulconer got far less.

"I hope you'll livestream it," data guru Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. chimed in. "Pay-per-view," said LA Times reporter and co-moderator Phil Willon.

"Pass," declared Newsom campaign manager Juan Rodriguez.

RINSE, REPEAT: While some legislative Democrats launched a serious effort Wednesday to overhaul the state's recall system, Newsom declined to weigh in "as someone that might be on the receiving end yet again."

Indeed, it's possible for Newsom to face evermore recall petitions for as long as he remains in office. "If past is prologue, this is the sixth recall effort in the two and a half years since I've been governor, it might suggest that process may unfold yet again."

Compiled by Camryn Dadey

— “5 takeaways from Newsom’s big win in California’s recall election.” (LATimes)

— “California recall: The 2022 campaign starts now.” (CalMatters)

— “California recall results closely linked to COVID-19 vaccination rates.” (LATimes)

— “Bay Area air quality advisory extended. Here are the latest conditions.” (SFChronicle)

— “New LA County health order to require proof of vaccination for indoor areas of bars, nightclubs.” (ABC7)