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COUNTER PROGRAMMING — When the Republican presidential field takes to the debate stage tonight in California, Donald Trump won’t be there. Instead, the GOP frontrunner will be more than 2000 miles away in the Detroit suburbs, where he’ll be speaking at a non-unionized automotive industry supplier in a bid to win over working-class voters.

The attempt to counter-program the debate will occur at an apt location, a place that occupies a unique role on the political map — Macomb County. Of the more than 3,000 counties in the United States, it’s hard to find one that’s a better barometer of the atmospheric conditions affecting the 2024 election. Trump’s campaign understands this better than most, which explains why he’s been to the Michigan county numerous times since his first presidential run.

Tonight’s visit is designed not just to keep Trump in the headlines while he dodges the debate but also to appeal to union voters and undermine Joe Biden amid the UAW strike. (Biden made history Tuesday by appearing on a picket line with striking workers in neighboring Wayne County, which is home to Detroit.)

Macomb County, with its high percentage of UAW workers, is an especially useful backdrop for Trump. The blue-collar suburb is often referred to as a bellwether, though that’s not exactly an accurate description — it’s voted for the losing candidate in three of the last eight presidential elections. It’s more like an indicator species in biology, offering important clues on the environmental health of an ecosystem.

In post-war American politics, the county occupies a storied role. Macomb delivered the biggest Democratic margin among suburban counties for John F. Kennedy in 1960, then became known as a famed home of Reagan Democrats by the mid-1980s. In 1988, it was the site of the most disastrous campaign photo op of all time — the Michael Dukakis tank ride.

In the 1990s, Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg’s exhaustive research on local voters — which popularized the term “Reagan Democrats” and informed his work for Bill Clinton in 1992 — focused the attention of the political world on the county. “On this battlefield lay the ruins of the New Deal and Ronald Reagan’s America and all the uncertainties of a new era,” he wrote in his 1996 book, Middle Class Dreams.

Today, the populist coalition that Trump has set in motion is rooted in places like Macomb County. It voted twice for Barack Obama, but Trump flipped the county in 2016 and won it a second time in 2020, even as the rest of the Detroit metro area voted overwhelmingly against him.

He’s likely to get an enthusiastic reception when he appears tonight at a non-union auto parts supplier, which speaks to his strengths as a candidate among working-class voters in general and in Macomb County, in particular.

Yet his liabilities as the party’s figurehead will also be center stage.

The ascendant Macomb County Republican Party has been gripped by chaos and bitter divisions related to Trump. The state party, once one of the nation’s most effective organizations, is in tatters — again, a vestige of Trump’s single term as president. Consumed by election lies and conspiracy theories, its statewide candidates were swamped in 2022.

Indeed, since Trump first carried the state in 2016 — the first Republican nominee to do so since 1988 — the GOP’s fortunes in Michigan have been in a downward spiral. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, elected as part of a 2018 backlash against Trump, is now in her second term and the subject of speculation as a prospective presidential candidate. Last year, Democrats made historic state legislative gains, giving the party control of all the levers of state government. (Notably, Whitmer defied Democrats’ downward trend in Trump-era Macomb, carrying the county by a comfortable margin.)

While the GOP’s Trump-era political track record in this battleground state is dismal, his Macomb County visit suggests his campaign’s grasp of the value of political optics remains sharp. The Macomb appearance was announced last week — days before the president announced his own visit to the UAW picket line.

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— Menendez pleads not guilty to corruption charges: Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) pleaded not guilty in Manhattan federal court today to bribery and extortion charges stemming from his relationship with three New Jersey businesspeople. Federal prosecutors accused the senior senator last week of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash, gold bars and other gifts in exchange for using his office to benefit the businesspeople and the government of Egypt. Menendez, 69, is charged with conspiracy to commit bribery, conspiracy to commit honest services fraud and conspiracy to commit extortion.

— Trudeau apologizes for tribute to vet who fought in WWII Nazi unit: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he is offering “Parliament’s unreserved apologies” to the world, several days following scandalous revelations that lawmakers mistakenly praised a man who fought in a Nazi division in WWII. “This is a mistake that deeply embarrassed Parliament and Canada,” Trudeau said today in a televised address ahead of his apology in the House of Commons. He acknowledged the incident during President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Ottawa visit struck a blow to Ukraine’s public relations efforts as it tries to rally support for its fight against Russia as Moscow uses the debacle to its advantage.

— McCarthy still lacks votes for GOP stopgap, increasing odds of a shutdown: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy lacks the votes to pass his latest idea for a short-term spending bill, signaling a shutdown at midnight Saturday is inevitable. McCarthy is expected to bring a bill to the floor on Friday that would pair a stopgap funding bill with spending cuts and a sweeping GOP border bill. But despite multiple entreaties from the speaker and his allies during a closed-door meeting today, POLITICO confirmed enough House conservatives oppose a so-called continuing resolution to block its passage.

— Judge denies Trump’s request to recuse herself in federal election subversion case: U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan said today she won’t recuse herself from Donald Trump’s 2020 election interference case in Washington, rejecting the former president’s claims that her past comments raise doubts about whether she can be fair. Chutkan, who was nominated to the bench by President Barack Obama and was randomly assigned to Trump’s case, said in her written decision that she sees no reason to step aside. The case, scheduled for trial in March, accuses the Republican of illegally scheming to overturn his election loss to Democrat Joe Biden.

THE ELECTABILITY ARGUMENT — A group of Republicans will march onto the debate stage tonight to argue that each of them could stave off another Donald Trump defeat against President Joe Biden, writes POLITICO.

Polling increasingly shows it’s not true.

Far from being an electoral liability, the former president is starting to lead — or at the very least tie — Biden in general election polling. Not only is Trump the top choice of a growing majority of Republican primary voters in national surveys, but Republicans overwhelmingly think he’s the candidate with the best chance of beating Biden next fall. And poll after poll suggests Biden and Trump are essentially tied with just over a year until the general election.

The latest RealClearPolitics averages show Biden leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by 2.5 points nationally, compared to Trump’s 1.5-point lead over Biden. Still, the president isn’t elected by national popular vote, and DeSantis — who won a landslide reelection victory in Florida last year — could be better equipped to claw back some of the Sun Belt states Trump lost to Biden in 2020, like the traditionally Republican states of Arizona and Georgia.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley potentially has a stronger electability case to make, based on the polling. She isn’t offered as often as Trump or DeSantis by pollsters as a Biden opponent, but a sparse RealClearPolitics average shows Haley leading Biden by 4.3 points.

CULLING TIME — Tim Scott, Chris Christie and Doug Burgum are still polling in low single digits nationally, while former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson failed to qualify for today’s debate. Others are on the bubble for the third debate or will face a reckoning when the next fundraising reports are due.

A culling is coming in the Republican primary, POLITICO reports.

As the GOP field preps for its second debate, it’s hurtling toward a make-or-break point for lower-polling contenders. They are running up against both a third-quarter fundraising deadline — a major gauge of a candidate’s durability — and more stringent requirements to qualify for future debates.

VIRAL MARKETING — The Biden campaign is formally launching its campaign war room on social media today, reports POLITICO. With the handle Biden HQ, it will serve as a rapid response operation aimed at reaching voters by pumping out content — lots of content.

Aides involved in it have adopted the mantra “more is more.” They’re starting on X, formerly known as Twitter, and Threads, but they’re looking to work a host of mediums beyond those. And for an operation famous for downplaying the significance of the viral hit of the day, they now hope that their missives go viral themselves.

Rapid response is not new to either party. But an intense focus on producing viral content online reflects the shifting battlefield of modern campaigning — from pushing out talking points and working reporters to cutting popular videos and disseminating them to allied influencers. It also means combating disinformation that can spread quickly.

TREACHEROUS JOURNEY — Pvt. Travis King, the American soldier who crossed into North Korea in July, is en route to the U.S. after a clandestine journey across the border to China and then home to the United States, U.S. officials said today.

King has departed Chinese airspace and is en route to a U.S. military base, said a senior administration official, who like others interviewed for this story was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement. National security adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed that the administration had secured King’s return.

The plan to bring King home came together over the last few weeks after Sweden, a frequent interlocutor between Washington and Pyongyang, conveyed to U.S. officials that North Korea wanted to release him, according to the senior administration official.

Officials in the U.S., Sweden and China engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity to secure King’s release and safe passage home. Swedish government officials on the ground in North Korea first facilitated King’s transfer out of the country to neighboring China, where he was handed over to U.S. officials. He has now departed Chinese air space and is headed to a U.S. military base. Chinese officials did not play any mediating role.

THEY’RE BACK — Mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group are back fighting on the front line in Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian military official told POLITICO today.

Several hundred fighters from the group once ruled by now-dead warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin were spotted fighting in the ranks of different Russian military units on the eastern front, said Colonel Serhiy Cherevatyi.

Wagner mercenaries had fought in Ukraine until May when they finally occupied the remains of Bakhmut, a Donetsk region town which was razed during nine months of brutal fighting. Wagner was notorious in Ukraine for mercilessly decapitating Ukrainian soldiers and killing civilians.

After Wagner was thrown into disarray following an aborted insurrection against the Kremlin in June led by Prigozhin — who subsequently died in a fiery plane crash in August — many of its troops were either welcomed to Belarus by its ruler Alexander Lukashenko or deployed to African countries where Russia has interests.

“Wagnerites were not hiding. Maybe they thought it would scare our soldiers. In fact, that showed Russia needs new meat for the grinder,” said Cherevatyi, deputy commander of Ukraine’s eastern group of troops for strategic communications. “Wagner as an organization was finished in Bakhmut. Now their more fortunate soldiers are sent to Africa, where there’s more money. The less fortunate ones are back to Ukraine.”

NEW LEASE ON LAND — For the first time, the U.S. Forest Service is allowing a private developer onto its land to build affordable housing. Through a $100 million project, the developer Servitas plans to build an entire residential neighborhood, complete with over 150 units, on USFS land in Colorado. In the high country town of Dillon — which is in the midst of a housing crisis — there’s a lot of land but not a lot of places to live. So they’ve worked out a solution, the seeds of which were planted in the 2018 Farm Bill, which authorized the USFS to lease out a limited selection of its land for housing. Andrew Kenney reports on the development, which could be the start of some public/private partnerships around the country, for Colorado Public Radio.