TAR HEEL STATE OF MIND — For all the focus on the presidency and the battle for Congress in 2024, arguably one of the most interesting — and consequential — races next year will be the battle for the governorship of North Carolina.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited after winning a pair of close contests in 2016 and 2020 — first narrowly unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory and, four years later, beating then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest to secure reelection. The state has been politically confounding, something that will likely continue in 2024. McCrory’s one term is the only time that a Republican has held the governorship this side of Y2K. But on the federal level, it has been incredibly frustrating for Democrats. 2008 brought narrow wins for both Barack Obama and now-former Sen. Kay Hagan, but that was the last time a Democrat won a statewide federal election. Most recently, now-Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) won an open-seat race by about 3 points last year, and Joe Biden lost to Donald Trump by less than a point and a half in 2020.

North Carolina’s status as that elusive battleground dream for Democrats will hang not only over the presidential contest next year, but the race to replace Cooper as well. After a decade-plus of success there, Republicans are itching for another go at the governorship without Cooper on the ballot.

The race to replace Cooper takes a new turn on Monday, when Cooper is set to deliver his annual State of the State address. The person giving the GOP response: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. (In North Carolina, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected independently, and Robinson won his first term in 2020.) Robinson has long been assumed to be running for the governorship in 2024 — and he has publicly hinted as much — and Monday’s response will be one of his biggest platforms ahead of his expected run. (You can watch both Cooper’s address and Robinson’s response Monday night at 7 p.m. courtesy of PBS North Carolina.)

It is fair to say that Cooper and Robinson don’t have the warmest of relationships. Robinson has a history of antisemitic comments, along with numerous other controversial comments, and Cooper passed on a Senate run in the midterms by citing, in part, the danger Robinson would pose in the governor’s office. But Robinson’s rapid political rise has made him a conservative star — he spoke at CPAC over the weekend. A way, way too early poll of the GOP primary from Carolina Forward, a liberal group in the state, last year found him as the frontrunner.

That’s not to suggest that Robinson will be the only one running for the nomination. Others in the state are considering runs as well, including former Rep. Mark Walker, who told The Assembly’s Bryan Anderson last month he’s been taking meetings about a potential run, and state Treasurer Dale Folwell. (The editorial boards for McClatchy papers in the state even floated Sen. Thom Tillis last summer.)

On the Democratic side, all signs point to state Attorney General Josh Stein. Stein, who like Cooper won statewide in 2016 and 2020, launched his campaign in mid-January. He rolled out his campaign with a long list of endorsements in the state and is expected to be well-funded. And while you never say never about a primary contest, his early entry into the race is anticipated to ward off any serious challengers.

Good Monday morning! Score host emeritus Zach Montellaro here, filling in for Madison. Tell me all the reasons why the Mets are the favorites for this year’s World Series at [email protected] or @ZachMontellaro. Send the actual news to Madison ([email protected]; @madfernandez616), she’ll be back tomorrow.

Days until the Wisconsin Supreme Court election: 29

Days until the Kentucky primary: 71

Days until the Mississippi primary: 155

Days until the Louisiana primary: 222

Days until the 2023 election: 246

Days until the 2024 election: 610

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RAGE ON BEHALF OF THE MACHINE — Nevada Democrats booted state party chair Judith Whitmer after two years, replacing her with state Assemblywoman Daniele Monroe-Moreno in a 3-to-1 vote on Saturday. It comes after the formerly Bernie Sanders-backed Whitmer took over the state party from the “Reid machine” in 2021 and then saw national organizing efforts flow through a county party instead in the midterms. The Nevada Independent’s Jacob Solis has more: “The 2022 election cycle was difficult,” Monroe-Moreno told reporters. “We won a lot of seats, but we did it with division and we can’t continue to do that. So I ran so we can bring the family, the Democratic family, back together.”

— The Texas Republican Party censured Rep. Tony Gonzales over votes against the rest of the party in Congress. The measure passed by a wide margin, per Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek. “Gonzales did not appear at the SREC meeting but addressed the issue after an unrelated news conference Thursday in San Antonio. He specifically defended his vote for the bipartisan gun law that passed last year after the Uvalde school shooting in his district.”

SAFE SEAT SCRAMBLE — Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) is seeking a sixth term in office, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Lawrence Andrea reported, breaking a pledge he made during his first campaign to serve only five terms. His district, WI-06, is solidly Republican.

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL — This week’s CPAC was the most MAGA-fied edition yet, POLITICO’s Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw reported from the scene. “At the four-day conference of conservative activists, Trump’s loyal fan base heckled his Republican opponents, overwhelmingly backed him in a straw poll and quickly booed what appeared to be a rogue audience member who started to play music over his speech. As they did throughout his presidency and the two years since, the MAGA movement showed up sporting buttons with Trump’s face, red hats and an eagerness to see the man the conference now orbits around completely.”

THANKS, BUT NO THANKS — Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said he would not run for president, telling CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that he wanted to avoid a “pile up of a bunch of people fighting” that would give Trump a path to the nomination. Read more from POLITICO’s Kelly Garrity.

‘RONNY D’ — Before Ron DeSantis was a leading candidate for president or even a governor, he was a keep-to-himself House backbencher who picked a handful of issues to mark his mark. POLITICO’s Rachael Bade and Bethany Irvine profiled DeSantis’ brief three-term tenure in the House: “DeSantis eschewed the gregarious, backslapping habits that most pols embrace to rise in politics. One former colleague remembers taking a long car ride with him — and talking to his wife, Casey, the whole time because DeSantis said barely two words. Another said DeSantis made clear he viewed Washington skeptically and did not go out of his way to build relationships there.”

— Donors are being told to line up seven-figures worth of checks in order to get DeSantis’ presence at fundraisers around the country, NBC News’ Jonathan Allen and Natasha Korecki report. “The figures may be less consequential than the political truth they represent. DeSantis is in such high demand that donors are lining up to give him money rather than waiting for him to beg for it, allowing him to set a bar at the level of a sitting president or vice president.”

CONVENTION SPOTTING — The family of the late Rep. John Lewis, the daughter of Martin Luther King Jr. and other civil rights leaders are urging President Joe Biden to pick Atlanta to host the Democrats’ convention in 2024, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein writes.

MEANWHILE… — AP: “Marianne Williamson begins 2024 challenge to Biden.”

Kentucky’s race for governor is getting a new big-money entrant this week. Commonwealth PAC has placed nearly $930,000 in broadcast, cable, satellite and radio advertising to run over two weeks starting Monday. A filing for Commonwealth PAC in the state campaign finance database lists the organization’s purpose as supporting the gubernatorial campaign of Kelly Craft, the former ambassador to the United Nations.

— Craft has been the only candidate on the air so far this year; GOP frontrunner Daniel Cameron, the state attorney general, has not aired ads yet, nor has Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.

Common Cause issued a statementmourning the death of the organization’s president, Karen Hobert Flynn.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “In 2016, I declared, I am your voice. Today, I add, I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged or betrayed, I am your retribution.” — Donald Trump at CPAC, via C-SPAN