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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, fresh polling reveals subtle changes in voter perception. Plus, a campaign postcard from rural Saskatchewan — where a Maverick wants to make an impression. And should Erin O'Toole get out more?

ALL THE CAVEATS — Yes, these are still early days. No, many Canadians aren't yet glued to the leaders' tours or the policy pitches or the Twitter tirades. But they're still answering calls from our favorite pollster. Abacus Data has new numbers this morning.

— Singh ⇧, O'Toole ⇧: The ERIN O'TOOLE narrative was consistent for months. He was unpopular one week and slightly more so the next. Abacus measured a notable shift in its new poll, which gathered opinions after the Tories published their full platform.

O'Toole's negative numbers appear to have plateaued at 41 percent. His positives jumped six points in a week to 26 percent. He's also gaining momentum with voters who are open to his party but still considering their options: 28 percent say their views are improving against only 16 who say they're declining.

JAGMEET SINGH is still the leader with the best approval rating. The NDP's negatives seem to have bottomed out at 24 percent. His positives have climbed to 42. Only five percent of voters who might vote NDP but aren't committed yet say their views of Singh are declining — 41 percent say they're improving.

Meanwhile, JUSTIN TRUDEAU's dueling ratings are in modestly negative territory: 39 percent positive, 42 negative. His momentum with potential Liberals is stalling.

— The horse race: Abacus has the Liberals at 33 percent, the Tories at 29, and the NDP at 23. Trudeau is ahead in B.C., Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

— All the gory details: Check out the full Abacus poll here.

— Related reading via PAUL WELLS in Maclean’s: Is a Conservative minority government even possible? And from STEPHEN MAHER: The unexpected Erin O’Toole factor.

FREELAND VS. TWITTER — Liberal partisans hatched a theory to explain the latest Tweetgate. The facts: KATE HARRISON and MICHELE AUSTIN were both Harper-era staffers. They both worked at Summa Strategies, where Harrison is still vice-chair. Austin now heads up policy at Twitter Canada.

Harrison was the one who asked O'TOOLE during the party's leadership race last year about the role of for-profit service providers in health care. Austin, the theory goes, did her fave party a favor when Liberals weaponized O'Toole's response by tweeting a selectively clipped video — and the social media giant subsequently slapped a "manipulated media" warning on the tweets.

POLITICO asked Austin for comment. She referred us to Twitter spokesman CAM GORDON, who would only say this: "The Tweets in question have both been labeled in line with our global synthetic and manipulated policy."

— The last word: Longtime pol PENNY COLLENETTE calls it as she sees it: "Twitter video clips are the ‘gotcha’ politics of today. Going forward, all parties need to be very careful of what they are posting."

— Related reading via SUSAN DELACOURT in the Star: Chrystia Freeland just had a Donald Trump moment. She should have known better.

ONE WEEK LEFT — The clock is ticking on Western nations extracting their citizens and thousands of desperate Afghans. The Taliban has imposed an Aug. 31 deadline to complete all evacuations. Ahead of today's virtual G7 summit, Trudeau has voiced support for sanctions against the Taliban.

— POLITICO's RYAN HEATH on the G7: "Leaders in Berlin, Paris, London and Brussels — initially dissatisfied by Washington’s lack of consultation over Washington’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan — are now appalled by missteps in the operation, which they believe has undercut the credibility of Western alliances."

— POLITICO's ESTHER WEBBER from London: "The U.K. might have been blindsided by the speed of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan but Boris Johnson is determined to play a leading role in coordinating the international response."

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau starts the day in Hamilton, Ont., where he'll make an 8 ET announcement at Meadowlands Community Park. That's in Liberal cabmin FILOMENA TASSI's riding, for those watching closely.

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole is sticking to his Westin studio, where he'll make a 10 ET announcement and then host virtual town halls. He'll talk to Quebecers at 7 ET and British Columbians at 9 ET.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is headed to southwestern Ontario. At least one poll has his party with an outright lead in the region (on a sample size of 324 respondents).

He'll start in Mississauga with a 10:30 ET announcement outside a nondescript office building that will surely serve as a useful prop. Then it's on to battleground Hamilton, where he'll whistle stop with ANDREA HORWATH and assorted local candidates. Singh's final stop is TRACEY RAMSEY's campaign office in Amherstburg. Surely some face time with BRIAN MASSE in neighboring Windsor West is next.

Green Leader Annamie Paul is talking affordable housing at a 10 ET presser with Ontario leader MIKE SCHREINER. She's canvassing in Toronto Centre at 5.

What is happening? Questions about the campaign? Send them our way.

SWIFT CURRENT, SASK. — MARK SKAGEN has an elevator pitch for voters who've never heard of his Maverick Party: "Wouldn't it be nice if those things that affect Western Canada were determined by Western Canada? How about we have a party that's exclusively for Western Canada?"

Skagen was an oil industry executive at Sino-Western Petroleum. When he retired, he opened a coffee shop with his wife — they called it 2 Village Idiots Caphe'. He's also building their new home all on his own. Now, Skagen is making a run for a new job that'll mean living in Ottawa for several months a year if he wins.

"I'm willing to work with anybody if they're logical, and the approach is what we can do to help the west," says Skagen. "If not, well, I'm busy, because there's lots of people who do want to help. I don't think you have to be 'Ottawa-ized.' "

— Buffalo breakthrough(-ish): The Buffalo Party and the Maverick Party are not the same thing. The rebellious Buffaloes were Wexiteers who ran in the 2020 provincial election on the promise of a sovereignty referendum. The Mavericks aren't exactly separatists, though they do see secession as a last resort. They just want more autonomy.

But the Buffalo experience was instructive. In 2020, the party finished second in four ridings — two of which form the western flank of the federal Cypress Hills-Grasslands riding. That's where Skagen hopes to make his own noise.

— Electoral math: Over coffee at the Smitty's just off the Trans-Canada Highway, Skagen told POLITICO that his message is resonating with voters on farms and in small towns who feel forgotten by Ottawa. He acknowledges his modest standing in 338Canada riding projections — most recently 8.8 percent — but says the party's research claims only one in five voters knows who they are. He's banking on a multiplier effect.

— The Tory line: "Don't dismiss them. Don't take anything for granted." That's how almost every big-C Conservative responded when POLITICO asked them to gauge their anxiety about an upstart movement siphoning off votes. Twenty-seven Mavericks are currently on ballots in the four western provinces.

— Lessons learned: Most don't think the Mavericks will make much noise, but they're at least keeping an eye over their shoulder. A lot of long memories remember what the last fracturing of the right meant for a generation of frustrated conservatives.

We're collaborating with The Herle Burly on 2021 campaign coverage. DAVID HERLE, SCOTT REID and JENNI BYRNE tackle a key question each day. Find out more about them here.

Today: Will O'Toole's Ottawa-centric town hall strategy pay off? Or does he need to get out more?

REID: Practice? We're talking about practice, man? We're talking about practice. We're talking about practice. We ain't talking about the game. We're talking about practice, man." THAT'S my take on virtual town halls. They're not the game. They're practisce. If Erin O'Toole is doing well, it's got sweet firetruck all to do with virtual town halls. They're the practice of campaign events. Not the game.

BYRNE: The Conservatives had a good week mostly because the Libs had a bad one. Erin was much more comfortable on the road in front of people. If I were the Conservatives, I would have him in front of people as much as possible and leave the studio dark for now.

Listen for the daily edition of the Herle Burly panel's campaign pod, which includes trail reports from Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Subscribe to Curse of Politics here.

Each day throughout the campaign, David Coletto from our polling partner Abacus Data will share a data point from his polling to help illuminate public opinion during the 2021 federal election.

Today: 1 in 5 Canadians say that reconciliation with Indigenous people is a top issue, up 11-points from 2019.

With the discovery of the unmarked graves at residential school sites this past year, Indigenous issues are in focus like they haven’t been before. This is especially true among Liberal and NDP supporters who are more likely to rate reconciliation with Indigenous people as a top issue.

When asked which party is best able to deal with the issue, among those who ranked it as a top issue, 31 percent picked the Liberals followed by 28 percent for the NDP, 14 percent for the NDP, 7 percent for the Conservatives and 16 percent were unsure.

The discovery of the unmarked graves awakened most Canadians to the horror that the residential schools policy inflicted on thousands of Indigenous children and families. For information about how Canadians responded to the discovery, we conducted a survey with the Canadian Race Relations Foundation and the Assembly of First Nations. Follow this link.

PLAYBOOK POLL — We asked readers which city would see the fewest party leader visits this week. The options: Calgary, Montreal, Hamilton and Halifax. The big city on the Prairies was your runaway winner. We'll check back next Monday with the final tally.

In POLITICO Pro Canada PM, ZI-ANN LUM looks at the next frontier in climate policy: Border carbon adjustments.

In other news for subscribers:
— Scientists say the world urgently needs to cut methane emissions. The politics aren't as simple.
— Severe oil leaks worsened Keystone pipeline’s spill record, GAO finds.
— Biden: Employers must require Covid vaccination.
— California judge strikes down tech industry's Prop. 22.
— Swing voters, week 2: Voters drift in the doldrum

On the Warrior Life podcast, NIIGAANWEWIDAM SINCLAIR shares his take on the federal election with PAM PALMATER.

On CBC's FRONTBURNER this morning, a conversation about the early days of the campaign.

KEVIN LYNCH and PAUL DEEGAN offer up 10 issues they hope will come up in the upcoming leaders’ debates.

New in the National Security Daily: What leaked cables say about the Afghanistan evacuation effort.

Royal Military College prof ADAM CHAPNICK defends MARC GARNEAU's initial decision not to rule out recognizing a Taliban government — before the foreign minister was "discredited and humiliated by his boss."

Spotted: DEREK FOX, elected as Grand Chief of the 49 First Nations of Nishnawbe Aski-Nation. … CATHERINE MCKENNA in an exit interview with the Ottawa Citizen … Former Hill reporter TERESA WRIGHT on her first day of school … Ottawa city council’s CATHERINE MCKENNEY celebrating Pride. … The National Post’s ANJA KARADEGLIJA, Fredericton bound. … The Globe’s MARIEKE WALSH with a “great plant game.”

Birthdays: Former Sen. LILLIAN EVA DYCK (turning 76), Former British Columbia MP GORDIE HOGG (turning 75).

Movers and shakers: ELIZABETH SEIP, newly an associate consultant at Global Public Affairs, repping a whopping 18 arts, culture and sport clients on the Hill. … CATHERINE ABREU in her final days with Climate Action Network Canada. “I won’t be going far,” she tweeted. More to come in mid-September. … Shopify’s ANA RAMAN at the Guggenheim Conference this morning.

We get mail: Singh's idea to rename Toronto-Danforth to Danforth-Layton as a tribute to the late NDP leader had readers sounding off in our inbox. A selection of replies:

“Fed. gov. has nothing to do with renaming municipal streets.”

“Being from the left coast, I haven’t the foggiest notion of the origin of the Danforth moniker. But Jack Layton more than deserves a worthy memorial.”

“ 👎! Singh trying to make a connection between himself and Layton as one in the same. Pathetic.”

“Of course it should be re-named. And anything with the Layton name in it brings only honor!”

Monday's question: We got up to some trickery with this one. There is no single Canadian citizen over the age of 18 who is not allowed to vote in a federal election — there are several. Honorary citizens aren't offered that particular honor. The chief electoral officer, STÉPHANE PERRAULT, also doesn't cast a ballot.

Not only did ADAM LAUZON have the right answer, but he also sent us a cheery note. Props also to KENNETH CARTY, INGRID GOETZE, BEN ROTH, TOMMY, MICHAEL HORNAK, LEIGH LAMPERT, JOSEPH PLANTA.

To the many of you who said it was the GG: We asked constitutional expert PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ if Governor General MARY SIMON can — or would — cast a ballot: “She can, but like the Queen, it's considered good form for her not to."

Today’s question: How many federal parties registered with Elections Canada in the 2019 election?

Send your answers to [email protected]

Thanks to Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan, Zi-Ann Lum and Andy Blatchford.