READY, SET, SPEND — Labor Day marks the traditional beginning of the fall campaign, and the airwaves are about to be inundated with political ads — from today through Election Day, $1.4 billion has been booked on TV for all political races across the country, according to AdImpact.

The Democrats’ shifting fate has dominated recent headlines as the party benefits from an improving political environment. Our in-house election forecaster, POLITICO’s Steve Shepard, updated his projections today, explaining why the fight for control of the 50-50 Senate — which he previously rated “Lean Republican” — is now rated “Toss-Up.”

With 63 days to go before the midterms, even Republicans acknowledge the landscape looks much different than it did before the overturning of Roe v. Wade. For a temperature check on the right, Nightly's David Siders spoke today with Patrick Ruffini, a data-driven Republican consultant and pollster who has worked for the Republican National Committee and George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign.

A founding partner of Echelon Insights, his new book on the future of the GOP, “Party of the People,” is expected to be published by Simon & Schuster next year. This conversation has been edited.

Conventional wisdom is that Democrats are doing better than they were a few months ago and what was once assumed to be a red wave now looks more like a trickle. Where are we?

I think that the recent special elections are consistent with the idea that we are at something of a neutral political environment. It just seems to me at the moment that turnout is going to be through the roof on both sides. It’s going to be higher than it was in 2018. And both sides have reason to turn out now. Then it becomes a question of which of the two sides ultimately kind of has the upper hand. So, the case for Republicans is, just historically, what really matters and what has mattered in midterms has been the performance of the incumbent. You’ve had some pretty abysmal data points for [President Joe] Biden that Republicans have made hay out of, from the inflation figures to the rise in gas prices. Those are the things that really kind of defined the election up until about a couple of months ago.

The Democratic argument, I guess, would be that this is something of an election almost like ’98 or ’02, where you had kind of a historical event happen that disrupts that midterm pattern. I think that the burden of proof is maybe a little bit higher on Democrats here, because that doesn’t happen very often. The counter-examples are small, right? The ’98 midterm with the Monica Lewinsky scandal and the ’02 midterm after 9/11. Is there a possibility that overturning Roe v. Wade was kind of a historical event or a disruption on the level of those things? Yeah, it’s possible. But Biden is not necessarily sitting at a 60 percent plus approval rating as we’re having this conversation. So, there’s that possibility, but the burden of proof is still high that it’s actually going to turn out that way, particularly as Republicans have a chance to sharpen their messaging, which has honestly been all over the place this summer.

How should Republicans do that?

It’s trying to bring that focus back to the economy, right? I feel like it’s just been such defense for the last two months that really that has not broken through. I would say that’s still going to be pretty powerful when it comes to the fundamental metrics being pretty bad in terms of the right-track number being in the 20s and Biden’s approval rating being still underwater by a considerable degree and his approval on the economy still being underwater by a considerable degree.

What should we draw from Democratic overperformance in a series of special elections this year?

Obviously, specials are imperfect predictors at best of what will happen in the fall. These have been pretty low-turnout specials. I could certainly make an argument that when it comes to that more expanded electorate, Democrats won’t necessarily be able to sustain that motivation in the same way. But it clearly seems that they might. I don’t think the specials point to, necessarily, a political environment that leans Democrat, but it does signal that they maybe eroded a lot of the Republican advantage that existed earlier in the cycle.

There’s absolutely been a shift that Republicans have needed to reckon with. There’s sort of a sense of, well, there’s not really much margin or room for error, when the conversation prior to this was like, well, is it going to be a 30-seat gain, is it going to be a 20-seat gain? And now we’re talking about something where Republicans are still clearly favored to take the House, but it’s a more narrow window in which to do it.

So, does this all come down to Roe?

I would be in the camp that says it was a hugely significant event. I think this is something that clearly disrupted the momentum that Republicans had. I think also there wasn’t a clear response to it in terms of candidates saying exactly what their position was or laying out a position that was more middle of the road in terms of this. As a result, that leaves Democrats to kind of paint the worst-case scenario for the voters, right? So, if you yourself will not say exactly what you believe, what you would do, what you would vote for, then I think Democrats can come back and say, well, it’s going to be a six-week ban all across the country, no matter what state you’re in.

Your polling suggests reducing inflation is more important to voters than protecting abortion rights. Do you think inflation will still decide the election?

Ultimately, I think there’s a better chance it gets decided on inflation than it gets decided on Roe. Even in our polling, we did a head-to-head of inflation versus protecting abortion rights as sort of, what is the defining issue. And it was like a 66-to-27 split in favor of inflation. I just think that has been such a cross-cutting issue this cycle. Nonetheless, the Roe issue right now is a huge motivator for the Democratic base, which puts them in the game at least to some extent.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s authors at [email protected] and [email protected] or on Twitter @davidsiders and @MyahWard. And keep up with tonight’s election results with Massachusetts Playbook reporter Lisa Kashinsky and on POLITICO’s live page for Massachusetts.

— Oz says he doesn’t support criminalizing abortion for patients, doctors: Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz today clarified an element of his stance on abortion, telling reporters he would not support criminal penalties for those who have abortions or the physicians providing the care. “There should not be criminal penalties for doctors or women regarding abortion,” Oz said in response to a question at a news conference in Philadelphia, adding that he is “strongly pro-life” but supports exceptions in the cases of rape or incest or if the life of the mother is at risk.

— CNN CEO Chris Licht makes his first big hires: After weeks of pushing out some of its highest profile personalities, CNN’s new boss has made his first big on-air hires. CEO Chris Licht announced today that John Miller would be joining CNN as the network’s Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst and that Dr. Tara Narula would be joining as a medical correspondent. Tapping Miller and Narula, along with the departures of media correspondent Brian Stelter, whose show Reliable Sources was canceled last month, as well as legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin and political correspondent John Harwood, suggests a less outwardly political direction for the network.

— New Mexico bars commissioner from office for insurrection: A New Mexico state district court judge has disqualified county commissioner and Cowboys for Trump cofounder Couy Griffin from holding public office for engaging in the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. State District Court Judge Francis Mathew issued a ruling today that permanently prohibits Griffin from holding or seeking local or federal office. Griffin was previously convicted in federal court of a misdemeanor for entering Capitol grounds on Jan. 6, without going inside the building. He was sentenced to 14 days and given credit for time served.

A NUCLEAR THREAT — The International Atomic Energy Agency today called for the creation of a nuclear safety and security protection zone around Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, saying it is “still gravely concerned” about the situation at the facility, writes Wilhelmine Preussen.

A team of experts led by agency chief Rafael Mariano Grossi traveled to the plant last week, with the goal of assessing the situation on the ground and establishing a continued IAEA presence at the site.

Increased fighting near the nuclear power plant in the last month had sparked concerns about the risks of a nuclear accident, with Ukraine and Russia blaming one another for shelling around the facility.

The IAEA said it wants to start consultations with Ukraine — the operator of the plant — and Russia — its de facto occupier — about establishing such a security zone “immediately,” as it will require agreement “by all relevant parties.”

TRUSS-T ME — Britain’s new prime minister takes office today — and she’ll be greeted immediately with a bulging inbox as the U.K. economy plunges into disarray amid a devastating cost-of-living crisis, writes Eleni Courea.

Courea set about to rank Truss’ building political problems. Here are a few:

Soaring inflation: Inflation is now hovering just above the 10 percent mark, and forecast by the Bank of England to hit a jaw-dropping 13 percent next month. Political difficulty rating: 9/10

Spiraling energy prices: Intimately linked to inflation is the inexorable rise in energy bills, which if left unchecked will bankrupt businesses and plunge millions of families into destitution. The planned energy price cap increase in October and the prospect of further frightening increases over the winter represent the biggest and most immediate problem Truss faces and her response will set the tone for her premiership — making any misstep very difficult to recover from. Political difficulty rating: 9/10

War in Ukraine: The war resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dragged on far longer than Western governments predicted. The U.K. has given billions of pounds worth of support to Ukrainian forces so far and there is no sign of a resolution anytime soon. Political difficulty rating: 7/10

Watching nationalists: Scottish nationalists desperate for a second independence referendum are cautiously optimistic that Truss will be unpopular north of the border and push more Scots toward separation. Political difficulty rating: 5/10