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Is Davos still Davos, if it’s in Singapore? The World Economic Forum has held preliminary talks about shifting next year’s annual meeting to relatively Covid-free Singapore, Bloomberg reported. A WEF spokesperson told Global Translations that Plan A is still to hold the 2021 event in Lucerne-Bürgenstock from May 18 to 21 “but we are indeed evaluating a few options due to the current pandemic situation.” Expect an update next week. You can still get your winter Davos fix via a special series of virtual “Davos Dialogues” running Jan. 25 to 29.

THE U.N.’s TOO-LATE SUMMIT ABOUT NOTHING AND EVERYTHING

The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) took nine months to arrange a special session on Covid-19, and now that it has, everyone’s scratching their heads. The event is not expected to produce a strategy, or declaration, or even raise funds for the global pandemic response, despite the fact that a U.N.-backed accelerator for Covid-19 tests, treatments and vaccines needing another $28 billion, and COVAX, the popular vaccine access facility that pools government resources to ensure every country gets the vaccine, is short $5 billion.

UNGA President Volkan Bozkir said “the world is looking to the U.N. for leadership; this is a test for multilateralism.” As interesting as a lecture-free event may be, it says something about the state of multilateralism, that this event is happening only now, and with such a startling lack of urgency. One day into the two-day event only Norway has offered money: $220 million to the ACT Accelerator. Angela Merkel urged countries to match her country’s generosity to ACT and COVAX.

Vaccine makers and other scientists are speaking during today’s panels. “Maybe these brilliant scientists will announce something, I have no idea,” said Brenden Varma, Bozkir’s spokesperson. Loyce Pace, president of the Global Health Council advocacy organization, told Global Translations she’s frustrated at “zero engagement of civil society organizations actually fueling the frontline response. Missed opportunities all around.”

The one novel idea offered up Thursday was European Council President Charles Michel’s suggestion for a global pandemic treaty, modeled after the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. But that won’t help the world with Covid-19’s urgent challenges. And it could complicate ongoing WHO reform talks, an Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, and a committee looking at changes to today’s unenforceable International Health Regulations.

U.N. pivots to climate

Amid all this fragmentation, the U.N. itself is shifting focus from Covid-19 to climate change. Secretary General António Guterres delivered a major speech Wednesday, saying that the “the state of the planet is broken.” But as we approach the 5th anniversary of the Paris Climate Agreement this month, climate efforts are suddenly advancing quickly.

With China, Japan and South Korea now committed to net zero emissions, and the incoming Biden administration promising the same, the “central objective of the United Nations for 2021 is to build a truly global coalition for carbon neutrality,” Guterres said.

The reality check on this momentum: The United Nations World Meteorological Organization says we’re now at roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures, meaning the world might smash through the 1.5 degrees ceiling set by the Paris Climate Agreement as soon as 2024.

Global climate summit Dec. 12: Guterres’ intervention was designed to build momentum for a climate summit next Friday organized with the U.K. and French governments. The British government is pushing its counterparts hard: threatening to bump them from the program if they don’t bring big new commitments to the table. It’s the opposite of the free-flowing special UNGA Covid session, and possibly a sign of a newly assertive and values-driven U.K. on the post-Brexit world stage.

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT COBALT

The U.S. may be home to the world’s leading smartphone and electric car companies, but in the race to source and process the minerals that make them work, especially cobalt, it’s been outmaneuvered by China’s integrated industrial policy. The same is true for Europe. Given the rapid rate with which consumers cycle through those phones, it’s creating a series of dangerous environmental and political effects along the supply chain. Luiza Savage dives into that critical minerals competition in this article.

🎧 It took China two decades of relentless effort to build that dominance, according to interviews for the latest episode of POLITICO’s Global Translations podcast. It won’t be easy to replace cobalt, but efforts are underway to at least match China. The EU, for example, has formed a well-funded batteries alliance to catch up.

REALITY CHECK CORNER

U.K. ISN'T LOSING AS MANY FINANCIAL JOB AS FEARED BECAUSE OF BREXIT: In the wake of early dire predictions, probably fewer than 10,000 jobs will have shifted to continental Europe by the time the U.K.’s transitional arrangements with the EU end next month. However, financial firms have shifted $1.6 trillion in assets out of Britain, according to accounting firm Ernst and Young.

In addition to overhyping Brexit job losses, expect officials to overhype a deal between the EU and U.K. that is expected in the coming days. The Institute for Government’s Joe Marshall explains in this thread that negotiations will continue for years.

THE MOVIES JUST GOT REAL: The long-term implications of the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh may lie in its impact on unregulated lethal drones. In essence, Fakhrizadeh was killed by remote-controlled machine guns, and it comes on the back of a Bellingcat investigation showing Emirati armed drones supporting the Ethiopian government in its civil war. Azerbaijan used similar drones last month to seize the upper hand in its conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Without some form of international agreement on their use, these weapons dramatically expand the ways state and non-state organization can conduct asymmetric warfare.

CHINA PLANS TO DOUBLE ITS MIDDLE CLASS: As more people head into insecure jobs in the West, it’s all moving in the opposite direction in China. The country could reach middle-income status within five years, and wants to solidify that by focusing on support for a stronger middle class to spur domestic demand.

TRANSITIONING

TRUMP UPSHOT: As state after state certifies its election results, the president appears to have no legal options left to challenge Joe Biden’s victory. Trump’s only hope now is to pressure electoral college members to act in an unprecedented manner and defy their state results to cast votes for him.

ELEVATING PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: Global Translations this week joined a group of 22 active and former diplomats convened by the University of Southern California Center on Public Diplomacy to examine the state of American soft power in the wake of Covid-19 and the Trump presidency. With great power competition replacing the war on terror as the defining principle of our foreign policy, it was no surprise that the diplomats wanted to see America make greater use of public diplomacy.

All 22 participants rated the U.S. as a soft power “loser” in the wake of the pandemic (China and Europe were also dinged, although to a lesser degree). Overall the group emphasized the need for stable messages from the White House to set the direction for diplomacy, and personal relationships as a way to ensure U.S. messages stick, even in a communication environment splintered by disinformation and misinformation. At the same time, the very platforms that have enabled falsehoods to be weaponized remain some of America’s best sources of soft power. Facebook and Google, for example, are often seen as the face of America in regions such as Africa.

Some of the diplomats’ wishes were practical: Hold a NATO meeting in Atlanta, for example, to show Americans first-hand what diplomacy is and why it matters. The group was split on which region the U.S. should prioritize in its diplomatic efforts.

Monocle’s Annual Soft Power Global Survey is now out, with Greece and South Korea sitting pretty at the top.

MID-LEVEL OFFICIALS TO BIDEN’S RESCUE: Anticipating Senate bottlenecks, Biden will be appointing as many mid-level officials as possible from Day 1.

GARCETTI TO BE US FACE AT CLIMATE AMBITION SUMMIT: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will speak at a climate summit hosted by the U.K., France and U.N. on Dec. 12, as a proxy for Biden and his administration, which cannot be invited for protocol reasons. Biden this week released a statement reiterating that climate change will a core national security priority during his presidency, not merely an environmental and economic issue.

BRUSSELS’ BEST TRANSATLANTICISTS: The EU plans to invite Biden to an EU-U.S. summit next year, part of a red carpet rollout from the bloc, which is publishing papers examining how to reinvigorate the alliance on everything from climate to privacy to tax. David Herszenhorn has more on just how eager Brussels is to move past the acrimony of the Trump era.

NORTHERN LIGHTS: A new Global Sustainability Competitiveness Index: Prepared by SolAbility, a competitiveness consultancy, the index puts Sweden on top, surrounded by other northern European countries. New Zealand is the only non-European country in the top 20. The index also critiques sovereign bond ratings as too generous to rich countries with big environmental footprints, and too harsh on poorer countries that are doing less to damage their long-term natural assets.

BRAZILIAN BIODIVERSITY THREAT: The Brazilian government is threatening to freeze discussions on an international deal to preserve biodiversity, arguing that the temporary virtual format of the drafting talks harms countries prone to connectivity problems.

What’s really going on? Brazil is worried that a beefed-up biodiversity treaty could undermine its sovereignty over the Amazon.

THE NEW ENERGY GIANTS ARE RENEWABLE: Think Iberdrola, Enel, NextEra, and Orsted.

Read our full Global Tech Spotlight. This week we look at how U.S. and European officials are eager for a hard reset on relations after four years of Trump-fueled tension. Steven Overly and Mark Scott report the obvious starting point is a now defunct data privacy agreement that’s critical to how global companies from Google to General Electric operate. “There is a real opportunity for the Biden team to score early wins by addressing the festering tech conflicts with the EU,” said German Marshall Fund’s Karen Kornbluh. Max Schrems, the Austrian campaigner who brought the legal challenges that invalidated the EU-U.S. Privacy Shield, said that “if democratic societies want to push back, collectively, against countries like China, then we have to respect each other’s rights.”

Other low-hanging fruit: Europe on Monday proposed teaming up with Biden to squeeze China via “a new EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council.” At a closed-door meeting with lawmakers, Sabine Weyand, Brussels’ top trade bureaucrat, said the council is needed to set joint standards on new technologies before China does. EU officials also hope to resuscitate parts of the failed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiations that focused on regulatory cooperation in artificial intelligence and self-driving cars.

Meet the man who overruled Vestager: EU court rulings hit both sides of the Atlantic. Here’s Simon van Dorp’s profile of Marc van der Woude, head of the EU’s second-highest court, who overturned two legacy-defining decisions from EU competition czar Margrethe Vestager.

How Biden could galvanize the world against Huawei, a global POLITICO investigation.

CHINA VS AUSTRALIA: As think tanks and officials in democracies debate whether they need to form new alliances and networks to combat China, there’s a live fire spreading under their feet. Using Australia as its guinea pig, China is issuing a revised playbook for how it plans to deal with small and medium-sized countries that attempt to hem it in. The playbook includes extreme tariffs, fake social media posts, censoring the Australian prime minister’s WeChat posts, and public insults of everyday citizens.

The Aussies are not the first people to buck China (Taiwan, Norway, Canada, and of course Hong Kong have experience of what happens when one bites Beijing), but they are unusual in their consistent willingness to set limits on the relationship, given the scale of both the trade and people-to-people relationships. Australia is the most popular global destination for Chinese university students, while China is Australia’s primary source of permanent migrants, as well as the country’s largest export market.

Australia has long participated in the Quad, an informal security grouping that includes the United States, India and Japan, but increased its China risk by putting itself at the head of the global pack by limiting Chinese foreign investment, blocking takeovers, and banning Huawei. When Australia backed the U.S. in calling for coronavirus transparency from China, things really got heated and have stayed that way.

China’s actions are now forcing other countries off the sidelines: The tipping point for some foreign legislators was the 212 percent wine tariffs; for the U.S., EU, French and New Zealand administrations it was the Chinese government’s tweet of a doctored image of an Australian soldier threatening to slit the throat of an Afghan child. The temperature is not cooling down: Australia's parliament is set to give its foreign minister the power to block deals with foreign states, including a recent deal the state of Victoria inked to participate in China's Belt & Road infrastructure initiative.

What’s next: It’s unclear. Australians fear they’re over-exposed in the dying days of the Trump administration. The WTO offers a cumbersome way to push back against China — a WTO ruling five years down the line won’t help time-sensitive agricultural exports. The real question is: will democracies offer Australia more than tweets and discreet diplomatic messages, as they figure out what structure can fight the next fire?

Email me your thoughts on how Australia and China should manage this dispute, and what allies should do: [email protected]

VENEZUELA — RIGGED ELECTION TAKES PLACE SUNDAY: The opposition is boycotting the vote, after courts knocked out many of their candidates and appointed new leaders to opposition parties, while Nicolás Maduro’s government is bullying government workers to vote for his parliamentary allies, or risk losing their jobs. The inevitable result: Juan Guaidó will lose his role as speaker of the parliament and all branches of the government will be in Maduro’s hands.

G20 — ITALY TAKES OVER AS PRESIDENT

NATO — BRAIN DEAD? That was Emmanuel Macron’s claim. And it prompted soul-searching in the form of a report published this week, which recommends significant changes to deal with an aggressive Russia and China. The report says that while NATO must remain geographically rooted, China cannot be considered merely an Asian player. Among 138 recommendations, the report’s authors suggest more engagement with Asian democracies wary of China’s rise.

OECD — TOP JOB RACE MOVES TO INTERVIEW STAGE: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has clawed its way into the top tier of international organizations in recent years, by working intensely with stakeholders and volunteering for tough jobs like drafting new tax rules. Now the OECD is set to elect its first new secretary general in 15 years. Global Translations will dig into what’s at stake in coming weeks.

The latest stage in the process runs from Dec. 1 to Dec. 11, and involves all 10 candidates submitting themselves to interviews with the 36 national ambassadors from OECD member countries. The only promise so far is an appointment by March 1.

It seems clear that the ambassadors will need an interim stage: a short list of candidates. Getting there will be a tough job. “There’s no-one that stands out as head and shoulders above the rest,” says Global Translations’ inside source. With a track record of promoting gender equality and climate action, OECD staff are keen for the ambassadors to elect a leader who reflects those missions, and with seven European candidates in the running, all eyes are on the Europeans to begin the cull.

Great GDP graphics: Speaking of the OECD, they delivered some top notch graphics on global growth patterns this week while lowering their 2021 global growth forecast to 4.2 percent, down from 5 percent.

UNITED NATIONS — GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN OVERVIEW 2021: This new guide is full of startling figures on the devastating medium-term human impact of Covid-19. For example, 235 million people will need humanitarian assistance in 2021, a 40 percent increase compared to this year.

EU — CONFERENCE ON FUTURE OF EUROPE HEATS UP: Helle Thorning-Schmidt, a former Danish prime minister who’s now chair of Facebook’s oversight board, is Germany and France’s joint candidate to lead a major conference charting a course for the “Future of Europe”. Liberal former Belgian PM Guy Verhoftadt is the European Parliament’s preferred candidate.

POLITICO rates the first year of the Ursula von der Leyen-led European Commission

EQUAL ALLIANCE, SILENT ALLY: CSIS is hosting an event Dec. 7 titled “The U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2020: An Equal Alliance with a Global Agenda.” The problem, given the title: there are nine American speakers on the agenda, and no Japanese speakers. You can register to hear from Richard Armitage, Joseph Nye, Michael Green, Kara Bue, Victor Cha, Zack Cooper, Matthew Goodman, Robert Manning, and Sheila Smith.

BRAIN FOOD

SHORT READ: Life beyond Europe’s rainbow curtain (Duncan Robinson, The Economist)

LONG READ: Tainted Earth, the heartbreaking realities of poverty in Alabama (Alexis Okeowo, New Yorker)

LONG BOOK LIST: Elena Ferrante, the Italian author of My Brilliant Friend, has this list of her favorite 40 books by female authors.

PODCASTS: Bill Scher has a new history podcast "When America Worked.” The first episode dives into the story of Edward Stettinius and the creation of the U.N. Bill promises “a story with sex, spying, betrayal and, most importantly, bipartisanship and compromise.”

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Biden’s choice to be the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, sat down with Mark Leon Goldberg in 2017 for this interview on her life and career.

ODDS AND ENDS

Did you know? Joe and Jill Biden were married at the chapel of the United Nations in New York.

Kompromat — the prime minister, the Glock, and wads of $500 bills: If you want to know
Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s take on his own sex life, read on in Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. Verbatim: “A beautiful lady can overcome my defense very easily. So my enemies have smuggled the gold and bundles of money into my house,” he claimed.

THANKS to editor Emily Cadei, Luiza Ch. Savage, Heidi Vogt, Carmen Paun, Steven Overly, Mark Scott, Karl Mathesian, David Herszenhorn, and Halley Toosi.