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When is the U.S. government going to run out of money? It’s a crucial question for bondholders, federal beneficiaries and lawmakers who need to raise the borrowing limit or risk a potential catastrophic default on U.S. debt.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said she has a “high degree of confidence” her agency can comfortably pay the bills “through Dec. 3,” exactly one month from today. Does that mean we’re going off a cliff on Dec. 4? That’s not exactly what Yellen is saying.

Right now, the Treasury is using emergency cash-conservation measures to keep financing government operations. Eventually, the secretary will notify Congress when she thinks those measures will be exhausted — that is, when the agency could begin to miss payments on its obligations. But there’s enough uncertainty that she hasn’t done that yet, even as outside forecasters estimate the date could be well beyond Dec. 3.

Why the uncertainty? One of the biggest unknown factors is the fate of the bipartisan infrastructure bill in Congress. The legislation would provide $118 billion to replenish the Highway Trust Fund — money that would need to be transferred from the Treasury’s general account, reducing the government’s cash cushion.

Even if Congress passes the measure in the next month, it’s not clear whether the Treasury would need to transfer the funds immediately, said Shai Akabas, economic policy director at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

The center estimates the debt limit X-date, as it’s known, could fall some time in mid-December through mid-February — in line with other private estimates — but that doesn’t account for a potential transfer to the Highway fund, Akabas said.

“I think that the Dec. 3 date is a place where, even if the money is transferred, Treasury feels comfortable and confident that they will be able to get through that date,” Akabas said.

Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP and a former Treasury official, says Treasury “might get uncomfortably close” to the X date at some point between Dec. 6 and Dec. 14 if they are required to transfer the highway funds at some point during the next month.

If Treasury determines they don’t have to transfer the highway funds immediately, or if the infrastructure bill is delayed past Thanksgiving, that could push the potential X-date back further. The next key deadline is Dec. 15, when the government receives an influx of estimated corporate tax payments, which could give them enough of a cash cushion to finance government operations until late December.

Call for clarity: Some former Republican aides who follow the issue have said Yellen should be more clear about when the Treasury expects to run out of cash, to give lawmakers and markets plenty of time to know what to expect.

When it looked like Congress might not raise the debt limit this fall, Yellen sent a letter on Sept. 28 notifying lawmakers that the Treasury would likely exhaust its emergency measures on Oct. 18, three weeks later.

“The longer we go without a letter, the more implausible it is that it’s the first week of December,” said Rohit Kumar, a former aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R.-Ky.) and the head of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ national tax practice.

“It’s very clear that nobody is paying attention to this,” Kumar added. “If this is going to be an early- or mid-December exercise, then people need to start thinking hard about what to do about it.”

Why the focus on Dec. 3? That’s also the date Congress must pass a federal spending measure to avoid a government shutdown. Earlier this year, Democrats had hoped to link the spending bill with a debt limit vote, but Republicans objected, before eventually agreeing to a temporary spending patch and debt limit increase that would both last until early December.

A much later X date means Democrats will have to decouple these two issues, and deal with the debt limit later, possibly not until early next year. That could create a bit of a cooling off period that may make it easier to raise the ceiling with Republican support, Kumar says.

“If it’s a 2021 must-do event, and we assume somehow Democrats get a reconciliation bill across the finish line, then it’s really hard to see how in close proximity to that we get Republican support for increasing the debt limit,” he said.

IT’S WEDNESDAY — The Fed wraps up its two-day policy meeting today, and we’ll definitely be watching this press conference with popcorn. What’s the question you’re most hoping reporters ask Chair Jay Powell? Let us know, and send us your tips: [email protected], [email protected], or DM us on Twitter @katedavidson.

Brookings Institution discussion with Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire at 2 p.m. … Federal Open Market Committee policy statement at 2 p.m. … Powell post-meeting press conference at 2:30 p.m. … Center for American Progress event on tax enforcement with former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, Treasury’s Natasha Sarin at 3 p.m.

BIDEN SAYS FED NOMINEES COMING SOON — From your MM host: “President Joe Biden said Tuesday he intends to announce his nominees to the Federal Reserve board ‘fairly quickly’ but declined to say whether he will replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Biden told reporters in Glasgow that he’d given a lot of thought to the decision, and dismissed suggestions that his administration has been slow to pick officials to run the central bank.”

Powell watch: From Bloomberg’s Steve Matthews and Kyungjin Yoo: “Jerome Powell is widely expected to be renominated to a second term as Federal Reserve chair, but his chances have been modestly dented by the revelations of stock trading by some senior Fed officials in 2020, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“As President Joe Biden considers openings for the Fed chair’s job and other slots, 79% of the economists expect Biden to keep Powell in the job -- down from 89% in the September survey. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, a Democrat, is seen as the most likely alternative, with 13% of economists predicting she will be chosen as chair. Powell’s current term expires in February.”

GENSLER: MOST CRYPTO FALLS UNDER SEC RULES — From our Kellie Mejdrich: “SEC Chair Gary Gensler on Tuesday said that most cryptocurrency products fall under his agency's jurisdiction, contradicting a claim by another top U.S. regulator that the digital assets should largely be covered by the CFTC.

“‘It's really, really a small number, [that] may be not securities and be under commodities rules,’ Gensler said during a virtual interview hosted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.”

CFPB: BLACK, HISPANIC NEIGHBORHOODS SEE MORE CREDIT REPORT DISPUTES — From our Katy O’Donnell: “Residents of Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, younger consumers and people with low credit scores are much more likely to have disputes appear on their credit reports, according to research the CFPB released Tuesday. The CFPB findings raise fresh questions about the extent to which inaccuracies in the credit reporting process feed economic inequality.”

DEMOCRATS’ SALT CAP SOLUTION RUNS INTO PROGRESSIVE OBJECTIONS — From our Bernie Becker: “Democrats zeroed in on a plan to repeal the current cap for state and local tax deductions on Tuesday, but that proposal was running into problems with key progressives. Under the plan, the $10,000 SALT limits would be repealed from 2021 through 2025, according to Democratic aides. The cap would then be added back for five years, which would serve to offset the costs of rolling back the cap.”

“Senate Budget Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) quickly lashed out at the reported agreement, citing analyses that found that the Democrats' social spending package could turn into a tax cut for millionaires if it included five years of SALT cap repeal.”

THE END OF MANCHEMA — From our colleagues Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: “The centrist Democratic senators from Arizona and West Virginia, once united on shaving down the cost of a party-line social spending bill that started at $3.5 trillion, are now going their own way in the final stretch of negotiations on a linchpin of President Joe Biden’s agenda.”

TRANSITIONS — Former CFTC commissioner and acting chair Mark Wetjen has joined cryptocurrency exchange West Realm Shire Services Inc., the company announced Tuesday. Wetjen, who was nominated to the CFTC by President Barack Obama, will lead the company’s public affairs effort as head of policy and regulatory strategy. He served most recently at MIAX Futures, where he focused on crypto-derivative products.

WHAT WE’RE LISTENING TO — Federal Financial Analytics’ Karen Petrou on WBUR’s On Point talking about her new book, “The Engine of Inequality: The Fed and the Future of Wealth in America,” with former regional Fed presidents Jeff Lacker and Tom Hoenig. “The Fed is the only entity I know of that could, under current law, make a meaningful difference” to inequality.

GOLDMAN SACHS NAMES LARGEST-EVER CLASS OF MANAGING DIRECTORS — WSJ’s Orla McCaffrey: “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Tuesday named its largest-ever class of managing directors, the final role before a coveted partnership. The Wall Street bank promoted 643 employees to managing directors, a 38% increase from 2019. Goldman named just 465 new managing directors two years ago, part of a bid to cut costs and renew the luster of its highest ranks.”

STOCKS GAIN, PUSHING DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS OVER 36,000 — From AP’s Damian Troise and Alex Veiga: “Wall Street added to its recent run of milestones Tuesday as stock indexes hit new highs again and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 36,000 points for the first time. The Dow and benchmark S&P 500 each rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq gained 0.3%. The three indexes also notched all-time highs on Monday.”