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TOKYO COMES TO WASHINGTON

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will engage in a time-honored political tradition today: the foreign trip designed to boost domestic political standing. He meets with President Joe Biden to discuss his plans to boost defense spending by more than 50 percent. Rahm Emanuel, U.S. ambassador in Tokyo, isn’t even hiding that the White House visit is a specific effort to give Kishida political momentum.

Kishida has been touring G-7 capitals this week to prepare the ground for Japan’s G-7 leaders summit in Hiroshima, May 19-21.

Tokyo not doing Davos: Global Insider hears the Japanese government delegation is pulling out of the World Economic Forum in Davos next week. We’ll work to confirm more details for Monday’s newsletter.

With conflicts raging in their highest numbers since 1945, Global Insider brings you two contrasting interviews today: one from a CEO who builds security and defense systems, including for the military, the other from a U.N. peace builder.

INTERVIEW — BEN EAZZETTA, CEO, ARES SECURITY

Ares is an enterprise software provider that supports physical security, including on the battlefield, a market that has been expanding rapidly as conflicts from Afghanistan to Ukraine change the nature of war. Ares civilian clients include two-thirds of U.S. nuclear facilities, Apple and Exxon.

Digital twins: Tabletop exercises aren’t dead, but today they can be next to useless if they’re taking place minus high quality digital simulations.

“Digital twins are a digital representation of reality: basically a 3D model, with characteristics like cameras and response systems, or delay systems like fences and bollards, that show the capabilities of potential attackers. We run simulations of attacks that allow us to generate security improvements.

“For our nuclear clients, we’ve been able to save 15 to 50 percent of staff costs by running these simulations.”

Rapid Deployment Forces are a big issue for U.S. military: “How can I drop a C-130 (Hercules aircraft) on a small area, and establish an operating facility or forward operating base, or refuel rapidly, in a highly automated, highly efficient manner?”

Common mistakes: “People get excited about what they can invest in [when it comes to cutting edge tech], but sometimes mistake their core, real problem they are trying to solve. Our system helps you pinpoint the real weakness.”

Timing is everything: “We realized our simulations needed to be real-time. They need to get you an answer within 10-15 seconds about what the optimal response is. A few seconds can be the difference between a life and death.”

“Gaming technology — Call of Duty uses software called NavMash — is great for simulations, and NavMash allows us to integrate true 3-D capabilities that help us calculate the ‘probability of kill’ from a given action.”

What role for AI? “You have to figure out what problem you’re really trying to solve and whether AI can help. We have a AI Gaterunner application [when someone blows through a base gate].

“Our AI-enabled cameras can calculate the probability of the locations attackers could be going to. Then we guide the response: all of a sudden the security forces are ahead of the assailant instead of chasing them. They can converge on him from multiple points, instead of chasing. Ten to 20 seconds is the difference between a win and loss.”

Drones change everything: “What’s happening in Ukraine is that people are seeing the old way of war doesn’t work anymore. I was on the phone this morning with a group serving on the ground in Ukraine. One of their big issues is monitoring small units and being able to take data on drones in seconds. We built our command and control infrastructure to share a location pin up and down the chain of command in seconds. But it’s only the start.

“That’s why Russia is getting its clock cleaned. What you will see next, 5-10 years from now, the war will happen with ground and aerial and water-based robotics, and it will be unbelievably lethal and rapid.”

What’s next? “Automation and robotics are the biggest growth areas. We’re looking at extending into battlefield robotics. Now we can highly automate multiple robotic systems, you know, drones and ground systems together into a real mission. Why couldn’t we send out a thousand 20-pound drones?”

Risk that worries him most: “The heightened interaction between state actors like Iran and North Korea and Russia. That makes the future very, very risky. Because now you have those state actors that are going to have an improved (lethal) capability, but our goals in the world don't align.”

Military procurement is notoriously troublesome — how do you work with the U.S. government? “Often through the Small Business Innovation Program. I really wish they did more of these because a lot of the real innovation that happens in technology comes from the smaller companies. They can move faster, make changes in rapid succession to improve and commercialize.”

Ben’s recommended reading:Future War by Robert Latiff talks about how “in the future, engagements will be in seconds and minutes, rather than hours and days. I think we're seeing the very first part of this with the deployment of drones.”

INTERVIEW — ELIZABETH SPEHAR, UNITED NATIONS

Spehar headed the United Nations peacekeeping operation in Cyprus before taking on her current role — U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support — days before Russia re-invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The Canadian works alongside Secretary General António Guterres at the U.N.’s New York headquarters, and spent this week in Washington.

Why D.C. matters to peace-building: “Partnerships. I came here to deepen partnerships.”

Did you know? Search for Common Ground, the world’s largest peace-building organization, is based in D.C. but manages operations in 30 countries.

It takes a village: Spehar’s top meeting brought together the Department of Defense, USAID and State department officials to discuss implementation of the Global Fragility Act, passed in 2019, and the Biden administration’s strategy to tackle and prevent spiraling global conflict.

It’s so much more than Ukraine: “We've got the highest number of conflicts around the world since 1945, and fatalities linked directly to conflict have gone up 46 percent between 2020 and 2021.”

Beyond Ukraine: “As absolutely devastating and important as the war is in Ukraine, there are so many other fragile and conflict affected countries that absolutely deserve our attention. One of my roles is to keep the spotlight on those other areas.

“As we address the spillover effects of the Ukraine war, we also have to look at what is happening internally in many other countries and what's happening regionally: there's also a lot of regional dimensions to conflict around the world.”

What can, or should, the world expect from the Security Council in conflicts? “It's quite clear to all: multilateralism is being tested.

“We have a lot of very important tools, but we need to make sure those tools are acting in concert, and are applied coherently to a particular conflict or fragile scenario. I feel sometimes I have a role of ‘chef d’orchestre’ (conductor), just trying to bring a symphony about in the U.N.”

Women in peace: “We pride ourselves very much on being gender-responsive in everything that we do in terms of peacebuilding. We set a target of at least 30 percent of all of the resources that we manage going to gender equality and women's empowerment activities. In 2022 we got to 47 percent and we’re very, very proud of that.

“It has been proven that if you want a peace process and a peace agreement to stick, you have to include women from the get-go and not just as an adornment. It is absolutely core to everything that we do.”

OTHER VOICES

Check out: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, headed by Melanne Verveer.

Watch or listento the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield and Gayle Smith, the ex-Cabinet member, who leads the ONE Campaign, discuss how to incorporate women into peace processes.

DAVOS INCOMING

This is the final Global Insider before we switch to our daily rhythm from Davos next week —the newsletter will arrive a little earlier than usual, 1 a.m. ET and 7 a.m. local time in Davos.

The U.S. delegation and list of national leaders can be found in Wednesday’s Global Insider. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will be touting his state as the "electric mobility capital of America" — more in this piece from Alex Burns.

Of note: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is beginning an 11-day trip on Jan. 17 with stops in Senegal, Zambia and South Africa. Global Insider hears there will also be a stop in Zurich en route to Africa, but no trip up the mountain to Davos.

Ottawa Playbook is keeping tabs on Canadians headed to the WEF, including Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and banker Mark Carney. 

While there isn’t a knockout list of national leaders attending next week, WEF officials pointed out to Global Insider that the CEO ranks coming to Davos are the biggest ever: more than 600, including 80 first-timers.

Heads of international organizationsattending:

António Guterres, U.N.

Kristalina Georgieva, International Monetary Fund

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, World Trade Organization

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO

Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency

Catherine Russell, UNICEF

Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, Red Cross

WHAT CEOS THINK 

The 12th United Nations Global Compact-Accenture CEO Study published Thursday, with 93 percent of CEOs saying they’re dealing with 10 or more global challenges to their businesses, and 98 percent of CEOs said they unequivocally feel it’s their role to make businesses more sustainable.

Peter Lacy, Accenture’s global sustainability services lead and chief responsibility officer, told Global Insider, “CEOs have put resilience center stage in a way we haven’t seen in the 15 years of this study.”

He added: “They believe sustainability is core to their role, but also that the resilience this focus creates brings with it new opportunities. Already, 63 percent of CEOs are launching new sustainable products and services.”

But: “Only seven percent of businesses are currently on track to meet their net-zero targets by 2030.”

How CEOs see their role in supporting democracy: “These executives aren’t as hopeful about the world’s resilience as (we) expected.”

“Yet, the majority of CEOs are adamant that the private sector plays a role in supporting peace, justice and strong institutions, and 70 percent believe their growing role includes the responsibility to speak out on potentially divisive issues,” Lacy said.

COP PRESIDENCY TEAM ANNOUNCED: Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber was announced as COP28 president on Thursday — he is CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, and also serves as UAE’s industry minister. A majority of women will make up the leadership team for the event: Shamma Al Mazrui, UAE Minister of Youth Affairs, will serve as Youth Climate Champion and Razan Al Mubarak, president of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, will be the conference’s “High-Level Climate Action Champion.”

ANOTHER NAZI UNIFORM SCANDAL: Move over, Prince Harry — the Sydney-based premier of New South Wales, Dominic Perrottet, has come to steal your Nazi uniform costume crown. Perrottet admitted to wearing a rented Nazi costume to his 21st birthday party, in 2003.

Thanks to editor Sue Allan and producer Sophie Gardner.

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