The weekend attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas comes roughly 50 days before global climate talks kick off in Dubai — potentially destabilizing the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula as Western negotiators push for a tougher stand against future fossil fuel use.

At a time when political allegiances across the globe are already fragile, the war in the Middle East is almost certain to complicate negotiations.

The oil-producing host of the United Nations climate negotiations, the United Arab Emirates, is pushing for a global agreement to rapidly boost renewable energy capacity. But other fossil fuel producers — led by Saudi Arabia — have often thrown a wrench into proposals aimed at reducing demand for oil and natural gas production, the backbone of their economies.

It’s not just the Middle East where tensions are heightened. Relations between the United States and China remain frosty, despite efforts by climate envoy John Kerry and other leaders to mend them. If the two countries can rebuild ties, that could lead to progress on major issues such as the orderly phase-down of fossil fuels and money to help poorer countries transition to cleaner fuels and prepare for rapid warming.

Conflict in the world could also make it even harder to secure financial commitments to help nations most vulnerable to the effects of rising temperatures.

On top of conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine has continued to put pressure on energy supplies and led to a black market for Russian oil. It’s also made for an uneven transition to renewable energy across the world, from Europe to India.

The world is full of geopolitical wildcards. In Israel and Gaza, it’s unclear how long the fighting will go on and whether it spreads deeper into the region. Then there is the price of oil.

President Joe Biden is under pressure from Republicans to tighten sanctions on Iranian oil exports. (Iran is a financial backer of Hamas.) But if prices at the pump go up, that could lead the Biden administration to push for more oil production out of the Saudi-led OPEC producers in an effort to bring them back down.

The UAE will want to wall off the talks from tensions in the Middle East. Even as the assault and Israel’s retaliation on Gaza made headlines, leaders from the Middle East and North Africa gathered in Riyadh to prepare for next month’s climate gathering.

Sultan al-Jaber, the UAE official tapped to lead this year’s talks, urged attendees to “avoid the traps of division and destruction.”

“How far you can go with that positive momentum always depends on the cycles of violence that we constantly see,” said Merissa Khurma, program director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center.

It’s Wednesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO’s Power Switch. I’m your host, Sara Schonhardt. Arianna will be back soon! Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to [email protected].

Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: POLITICO’s Matt Daily breaks down how the Israel-Hamas war could affect global energy and the Biden administration.

What’s next for direct air capture?
Who will win the next round of bidding for industrial hubs to pull carbon dioxide from the air? Corbin Hiar writes that while the Department of Energy is close to finalizing $1.2 billion in grants, another $2.4 billion is still in the pipeline — and could have significant ramifications for the nascent direct air capture industry.

The DOE funding is expected to lead to at least four DAC megaprojects in American communities. But it is also funding numerous feasibility studies and engineering design work, which some experts believe could lead to the commercialization of a broad range of DAC technologies.

Cutting off Iran’s oil
President Joe Biden is facing pressure to block Iranian oil exports, even if the move produces a politically damaging spike in world oil prices, write Manuel Quiñones and Bob King.

The calls come after the Iranian-allied Palestinian group Hamas attacked civilians in Israel this weekend. Republican lawmakers have pointed to a rise in crude oil exports from Iran under Biden’s watch, despite U.S. sanctions aimed at punishing Tehran for nuclear ambitions and support for terrorism. Some Democrats have joined in on legislation to deter Iranian exports.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) went so far as to urge the Biden administration and Israelis to “jointly come up with a plan to destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure.”

The “gotcha” method
Republicans have hit on a new strategy to sow doubt about climate change: trying to stump Biden administration officials on the percentage of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

In recent months, House Republicans have used hearings to test whether witnesses know that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 412 parts per million, or 0.04 percent, writes Timothy Cama. Some federal officials have answered with guesses that are orders of magnitude higher than that.

Scientists agree that CO2 is a powerful greenhouse gas — and that its concentration in the atmosphere has already driven up global temperatures, fueling more extreme weather.

Sunny perils: Researchers say the largest solar storm to hit Earth — which occurred 14,300 years ago — reveals how disruptive an intense geometric storm could be to the world’s energy and internet networks.

Reality bites: The hit CBS reality game show “Survivor,” which is set in a different island locale each season, is becoming harder to film and produce as a changing climate fuels more extreme weather.

A showcase of some of our best subscriber content.

Exxon Mobil is buying Pioneer Natural Resources in one of the largest-ever oil industry transactions, doubling Exxon’s position in the prolific Permian Basin. The oil major says the purchase will accelerate the net-zero transition for Pioneer’s assets.

Electric vehicle sales will account for as much as 45 percent of the world’s new-vehicle sales by 2050, while the sales of gas-powered vehicles will peak within the next decade, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The U.S. and its allies unveiled key details about how they plan to secure metals for electric vehicle batteries, with the aim of easing dependence on China.

That’s it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.