With help from Daniel Lippman and Connor O’Brien

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Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE have a story today about how the Biden administration fears it will be criticized if Ukraine’s counteroffensive falls short of its goals. Simply put, if Kyiv’s forces don’t retake a large chunk of territory seized by Russia, hawks will say the United States should’ve provided more weapons while doves will claim the time for peace talks was yesterday (and that’s not even including what on-the-fence allies would do).

So today, we thought we’d dive a little deeper into why this fear is cropping up all of a sudden.

Two U.S. officials told our own ERIN BANCO that the belief is the Russians are so dug in that the Ukrainian offensive won’t amount to much. There is even some thinking that the offensive might not happen at all, at least not in the way Ukraine’s push last year went down. “I don’t think that there’s going to be this, wake up one morning and see, like, Ukrainian streaming across large swaths of territory sort of situation,” said one of the officials, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations. “Definitely not.”

Furthermore, our own PAUL McLEARY heard that when Ukrainian officials were in Washington, D.C., last week, they asked administration officials what pledges or guarantees they could expect from the United States during the NATO summit in July. The general response to them was: “Depends on how the counteroffensive goes.”

All of this tracks with what Alex and Jonathan heard. There’s a sense that a lot — and we mean a lot — is riding on Kyiv to turn the ever-forthcoming counteroffensive into a clear win. If there isn’t one, Ukraine risks losing America’s staunch support and allied publics wondering aloud why they’re paying such exorbitant food and energy prices.

This may be why there have been discussions, per U.S. aides, of framing any negotiations to the Ukrainians as a “ceasefire” and not as permanent peace talks, leaving the door open for Ukraine to regain more of its territory at a future date.

Incentives would have to be given to Kyiv: perhaps NATO-like security guarantees, economic help from the European Union, more military aid to replenish and bolster Ukraine’s forces, and the like. And aides have expressed hope of re-engaging China to push Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN to the negotiating table as well.

In the meantime, it’s possible the counteroffensive is on the verge of starting. On Saturday, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Ukrainian forces are on the eastern side of the Dnieper River and have supply lines. That’s not conclusive evidence, to be clear, but it is a sign that the anticipated operation is about to get underway.

ANNIVERSARY ATTACK: What’s more, Washington convinced Kyiv to hold off on launching its counteroffensive on the one-year anniversary of the war, according to leaked Pentagon documents obtained by the Washington Post’s SHANE HARRIS and ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN.

Two days before the planned February attacks, the CIA circulated a report that Ukrainian military officials had agreed to postpone the operation at Washington’s directive. The docs don’t detail who in the U.S. made the push, or why Ukraine agreed to it.

Two weeks after the alleged Pentagon leaker, a 21-year-old Air National guardsman, was arrested, the classified reports keep comin’. The latest ones — all published by the Post over the weekend — revealed that the Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary force, is bolstering its efforts in Africa while countering Western influence; U.S. officials are increasingly worried about Chad’s instability as the Wagner Group recruits rebels; and Afghanistan has once again become a staging ground for Islamic State attacks around the world.

FLEEING SUDAN: The United States and other foreign governments scrambled to evacuate their diplomats and staff from Sudan over the weekend as the country’s nationwide fighting persisted without an end in sight.

“The decision to suspend operations at the embassy, remove our personnel from their signposts is among the most difficult that any secretary makes,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said Monday, “but my first priority is the safety of our people. And I determined that the deteriorating security conditions in Khartoum poses an unacceptable risk to keeping our team there at this time.”

While the diplomats were airlifted from the capital, residents struggled to find safe ways out, with many opting to travel on dangerous roads to cross into Egypt, the Associated Press reports. More than 420 people, including some 260 civilians, have been killed. Another 3,700 have been wounded.

For Americans still in Sudan, the U.S. military is positioning naval assets in the Red Sea to help them escape, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said on MSNBC on Monday morning, adding that no major evacuation operation is underway.

As fighting intensifies, it’s a “real concern” that the conflict could expand outside of Sudan, he said.

“Right now, these two warring factions are really going at it, mostly in Khartoum … but this could erupt into a civil war,” he said. “Sudan is a very big country on the African continent, surrounded by seven neighbors, and it is possible this could spread elsewhere.”

RUSSIA’S IRAN PLUG: Tehran is shipping ammunition to resupply Moscow’s troops fighting in Ukraine via the Caspian Sea, the Wall Street Journal’s DION NISSENBAUM and BENOIT FAUCON report.

More than 300,000 artillery shells and a million rounds of ammo have been sent on cargo ships from Iran to Russia in the past six months, according to documents and Middle Eastern officials. The use of cargo ships makes it essentially impossible to intervene without help from former Soviet Republics on the sea’s coast, U.S. officials said.

It’s yet another obstacle for the U.S. and its allies as they attempt to disrupt cooperation between the two countries, which have helped each other secure military aid including drones and attack helicopters.

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DESANTIS THE DIPLOMAT: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS met with Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO on Monday, saying he hopes Washington will stand with Tokyo “every step of the way” amid tensions with Pyongyang.

“I think Japan’s been a heck of an ally for our country, and I think a strong Japan is good for America, and I think a strong America is good for Japan,” the governor said, per the New York Times’ MOTOKO RICH and NICHOLAS NEHAMAS.

DeSantis’ visit comes before he stops in South Korea, the United Kingdom and Israel on what’s billed as an international trade mission — but what’s viewed as him garnering international cred before a likely presidential campaign launch. He’ll meet with several high-profile lawmakers, including Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, our own KELLY GARRITY reported Sunday.

WASHINGTON TO SEOUL: NO CHIPS FOR CHINA: The Biden administration is urging South Korean chipmakers not to fill any market gap in China if the country bans U.S.-based Micron from selling chips, as the Korean president is preparing for a state visit, according to the Financial Times’s DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO.

China launched a national security review earlier this month into Micron, one of the three dominant players in the global chip market. It remains unclear if the Cyberspace Administration of China will take punitive measures as a result of the probe.

HOMELAND SECURITY CALLS TO CODIFY: The Secretary of Homeland Security ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS released a statement on Monday reiterating the Biden administration’s support for legislation that would codify and strengthen the Cyber Safety Review Board, the independent DHS expert panel the White House founded in 2021 to distill lessons of cybersecurity incidents.

HELP WANTED: Defense contractors in the U.S. and Europe are struggling to hire qualified workers to meet high production demands fueled by the war in Ukraine, per the Wall Street Journal’s ALISTAIR MacDONALD and DOUG CAMERON.

“Our first priority is really to ramp up capacity, which, of course, means increasing staff,” PATRICE CAINE, chief executive of France’s Thales SA, told investors last month. The company plans to hire around 12,000 people this year, WSJ reports.

There are many hurdles to overcome. Some workers haven’t returned from pandemic furloughs. People with the right skill sets and background to obtain a security clearance are hard to find. And some simply don’t want to work for defense companies, per WSJ.

Any effort to replace weapons that the U.S. and European countries have given to Ukraine will likely be hindered by the labor shortage.

‘I CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT IT’: Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) over the weekend tweeted his concerns that America’s support for Ukraine unnecessarily risks nuclear war with Russia.

“Fighting a proxy war against a nuclear adversary is dangerous business. I can no longer support it,” he wrote. “[It’s] also dangerous to fight a proxy war against China. Supplying weapons to prevent or discourage an invasion is one thing. Funding a proxy war — which tends to lead to a direct, hot war — against a nuclear power is quite another.”

Last week, Lee joined a group of Republican lawmakers who sent a letter to President JOE BIDEN urging him to cease “unrestrained” support for Ukraine.

The argument Lee is making remains a minority view with the Republican Party and broader Congress. But the increased boldness shows that the cautious whispers may become full-throated demands in the coming weeks.

WALK IT BACK: China wants you to know that its ambassador to Paris, LU SHAYE, is wrong about how Beijing sees the sovereign status of post-Soviet countries.

Last week, he told French television that Crimea was part of Russia and that former Soviet countries ”do not have an effective status in international law, since there is no international agreement that would specify their status as sovereign countries.” Naturally, leaders in the Baltic states were fuming.

France summoned Lu on Monday to explain himself, but MAO NING, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, did much of the talking in a same-day briefing. “China respects the sovereign status of former Soviet republics after the Soviet Union’s dissolution,” she said. “I can tell you what I stated just now represents the official position of the Chinese government.”

This episode highlights the internal tension facing China during the war: It neither wants to condemn Russia’s actions nor be seen as helpful to Moscow. For example, FU CONG, China’s ambassador to the European Union, recently told the New York Times that China didn’t recognize Crimea as part of Ukraine.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SEZANEH SEYMOUR is joining cyber insurance company Coalition in May as VP and head of regulatory risk and policy, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was a deputy assistant U.S. trade representative and is a former senior adviser to ANNE NEUBERGER, the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging tech.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ADAM HODGE is getting detailed to the National Security Council to be acting senior director for press and spokesperson while ADRIENNE WATSON is on maternity leave, Daniel also learned. He most recently was assistant U.S. trade representative for media and public affairs and has served alongside USTR KATHERINE TAI since day one.

— Biden has nominated Gen. RANDY GEORGE to be the Army’s next chief of staff. If confirmed by the Senate, he would succeed Gen. JAMES McCONVILLE who retires this summer. George, now Army vice chief of staff, was previously senior military assistant to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. (h/t Defense News, which first spotted George’s previously unannounced nomination.)

— Foreign Policy for America, nonpartisan advocacy group founded in 2017, has named two new additions to its board of directors: ELISA MASSIMINO and BISHOP GARRISON. Massimino is the executive director of the Human Rights Institute at Georgetown University Law Center. Garrison served as the senior adviser to DefSec Austin on diversity, equity and inclusion.

— Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: World military expenditure reaches new record high as European spending surges

— HILLARY CLINTON, The New York Times: Republicans are playing into the hands of Putin and Xi

— NIKOLAI SOKOV, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: Russia is deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus. NATO shouldn’t take the bait

— The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association kicks off its 2023 Intelligence Symposium, 8 a.m.: The event requires clearance to attend

— George Washington University, 8:05 a.m.: Business and policy forum with chief strategy officer of the Homeland Security Department VALERIE COFIELD and Sen. MARK WARNER

— The Deutsche Post DHL Group, 8:30 a.m.: 2023 DHL Forum, with the theme “Resilient Supply Chains in a Dynamic World”

— The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: Afghanistan’s twin human rights and humanitarian crises

— Commerce Department, 10 a.m.: Meeting of the National Artificial Intelligence Advisory Committee to discuss the Committee’s effort to develop its year one report

— The George Washington University Space Policy Institute, 1 p.m.: Discussion on space and cybersecurity

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always fears we will criticize her if the editing falls short.

We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who only receives criticism that his production skills are too perfect.