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Democrats are hoping to chip away at the GOP’s thin majority with an upcoming special election for NY-03, which is vacant in the wake of Republican George Santos’ ouster last week.

The House voted on Friday to expel Santos, who has faced a litany of scandals — including lying about his biographical information during his campaign and being federally indicted for allegedly committing a wide range of financial crimes.

NY-03 was a top target for both parties long before Santos was kicked out of Congress. Democrats were bullish about claiming the seat that President Joe Biden carried in 2020, while Republicans were eager to get a fresh start next year. (Santos originally indicated that he would run for reelection, but he changed course last month in light of a damning ethics report.)

It’s going to be a high-dollar affair as both parties look to the district for a sense of how 2024 might go, especially as many battleground races are taking place in the Empire State.

Here’s what you need to know about NY-03.

When’s the special election happening? — Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has until next Monday to call a special election, which will take place within 70 to 80 days of that proclamation. That puts us in mid-February. (A reminder that New York’s primary election is in June, meaning the winner will only have four months before they have to go through another election.)

Who’s running? — Rather than a primary election, party leaders choose the nominee for the special election. New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs told POLITICO that Democrats will announce their candidate on Tuesday. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi — who represented the district before he unsuccessfully ran for governor last year — is seen as a top contender, given his name ID among voters. In recent weeks, a number of his primary opponents dropped out and endorsed him. A handful of other Democrats, including former state Sen. Anna Kaplan, who has raised more than $700,000 for the contest, are also running.

Republicans are extensively vetting their candidates — including using an outside firm — with the hope of avoiding another candidate with as much baggage as Santos. Some potential names include Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, former NYPD detective Mike Sapraicone (who Santos endorsed), Afghanistan war veteran Kellen Curry and state Sen. Jack Martins. Vish Burra, a top Santos aide, is also considering a bid.

The GOP is expected to “have an announcement towards the end of the week.”

What’s the makeup of the district? — The district covers parts of Queens and Long Island — where the GOP has seen gains in local and federal races. NY-03 is one of the 18 Republican-won districts in the midterms that Biden carried in 2020, with a margin of over 8 points. Still, former Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin won the district during his 2022 run for governor.

There’s also a looming potential of redistricting after Democrats sued to have the map redrawn. It won’t impact the special election, but it could shift the makeup of the district come the 2024 general election if Democrats get their way.

What’s next? — The drama to bring Congress back to its full complement — which it had for less than a week, after Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Utah) was sworn in just days before Santos’ expulsion — will not be confined to just New York. National groups on both sides of the aisle are certain to pour money into the race.

Santos might also factor into other contests. A half-dozen vulnerable Republicans voted against kicking Santos out, including Reps. Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.), Maria Elvira Salazar (Fla.), Scott Perry (Pa.) and Derrick Van Orden (Wis.). Some Democratic challengers were quick to pounce, with Wisconsin state Rep. Katrina Shankland fundraising off of Van Orden’s vote. Perry’s Democratic opponents also called him out for voting to keep Santos in Congress.

Happy Monday. Reach me at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 42

Days until the Republican National Convention: 224

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 259

Days until the 2024 election: 337

REDISTRICTING REDUX — A proposed congressional map in Georgia drawn by the GOP-controlled state legislature impacts GA-07, currently held by Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, and maintains the GOP’s 9-5 control in the congressional delegation. State legislators earlier this year were court-ordered to create a new majority-Black district, but in doing so, McBath’s district was carved up. The map might violate the court’s order, “which said that violations of the Voting Rights Act’s prohibition on racial discrimination can’t be corrected by eliminating districts with substantial minority populations,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Niesse and Maya T. Prabhu write. If it does, a special master could draw the map instead.

McBath’s campaign manager told The AP that the campaign will wait for a ruling from the court before announcing its plans for 2024, but added that McBath “refuses to let an extremist few in the state legislature determine when her time serving Georgians in Congress is done.”

… Over in Florida, a state appeals court overturned a ruling that declared Gov. Ron DeSantis’ congressional map unconstitutional. The map resulted in the GOP picking up four seats in the midterms, and dismantled then-Democratic Rep. Al Lawson’s seat. The move sets the stage for the case to “finally head to the conservative-leaning state Supreme Court,” POLITICO’s Gary Fineout reports.

2024 WATCH — Republican Sandy Pensler is running for Senate in Michigan. Pensler, a businessperson, joins a crowded field of Republicans vying to flip the soon-to-be-open seat, including former Rep. Mike Rogers, whom national Republicans have coalesced around. Pensler unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2018 and largely self-funded his bid.

… Former Democratic Flint Mayor Karen Weaver is considering a run for MI-08 to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee, per ABC 12’s Kevin Craft. Mitchell Rivard, Kildee’s chief of staff, is also mulling a bid. Michigan State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is currently the only Democrat in the race, although Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley said that he’s launching an exploratory committee.

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CAMPAIGN PAINS — DeSantis’ campaign is “losing confidence” in Never Back Down, the super PAC boosting his bid, and its ability to run a strong advertising campaign, per POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt. Never Back Down has spent over $42 million on ads so far — the most of any entity in the presidential race, according to ad tracker AdImpact. The group will instead focus on field deployment in the run-up to the Jan. 15 Iowa caucus and Fight Right, a newly created pro-DeSantis super PAC, will prioritize TV spending, Alex reports.

Never Back Down has suffered massive leadership changes in recent weeks. The group fired Kristin Davison on Friday, who just days before replaced Chris Jankowski as CEO. Spokesperson Erin Perrine and Matthew Palmisano, another top official, were also fired. Adam Laxalt also left his position as board chair, The New York Times reported on Friday. Longtime DeSantis ally Scott Wagner will serve as interim CEO and board chair.

… On the other side of the aisle, an opposition movement is forming against Biden. Muslim leaders from Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania launched a national campaign advocating against Biden’s reelection, the latest example of discontent over Biden’s response to conflict in the Middle East. The organizers are not voting for former President Donald Trump, and will “continue to have discussions as a community about which candidate to throw their support behind as the primaries rapidly approach,” POLITICO’s Myah Ward writes.

TRUMP TRIALS — A judge ruled on Friday that Trump is “not immune from prosecution for his attempt to subvert the 2020 election,” POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney writes. The ruling “came less than 12 hours after a federal appeals court rejected Trump’s similarly sweeping claims of immunity from a series of civil lawsuits that seek to hold him accountable for stoking the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.”

THE PAC PRIMARY — A super PAC is forming in New Hampshire in support of a write-in campaign for Biden, who didn’t put his name on the primary ballot in the Granite State in anticipation that it would hold an unsanctioned Democratic contest, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Holly Otterbein report. Former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Kathy Sullivan is helping launch the group.

PRESIDENTIAL — Trump’s campaign is making a “major weekly six-figure advertisement buy” in Iowa, ABC News’ Lalee Ibssa and Rachel Scott report. One ad highlights footage of Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds — who endorsed DeSantis’ bid — praising Trump.

FIRST IN SCORE — Sindy Benavides is president and CEO of Latino Victory Project, which supports electing Latinos up and down the ballot. She was previously executive director of the group. Katharine Pichardo-Erskine, who most recently was senior vice president at the MirRam Group, is now executive director.

— Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was elected chair of the Democratic Governors Association at its annual winter meeting over the weekend. Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly will continue as vice chair, and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy will be finance chair.

— Morgan Mohr is senior adviser for reproductive freedom for the Biden campaign. She was previously senior adviser to the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “To hell with this place.” — Santos after his expulsion on Friday.