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With an all-hands-on-deck effort from Caitlin Emma, Nicholas Wu, Daniella Diaz, Jordain Carney, Adam Cancryn and Olivia Beavers

WHERE THE DEBT TALKS REALLY STAND — The last thing President Joe Biden’s party wanted was this spring’s debt talks ending with a repeat of 2011’s debt limit standoff that resulted in across the board belt-tightening. After all, Washington’s come a long way since then. Today’s planned meeting with President Joe Biden and top Congressional leaders was scrapped Thursday afternoon and moved to next week — a move that both parties say was a sign of good progress even as Speaker Kevin McCarthy continued to hit the White House for the delay.

“I have not seen from [them] a seriousness of the White House that they want to deal… He ignored us now for 100 days. He thought this problem would go away,” McCarthy (R-Calif.) said at a press conference Thursday.

But staff-level talks will continue today — part of a multi-day flurry of talks that’s looking more and more like it could end in a spending caps deal, just like the Obama-era negotiations did.

Except there’s one big problem with that: House Republicans are thinking a lot more long-term than Biden and his Democratic negotiators.

White House officials are privately aiming for a two-year deal that would lift the debt limit and impose new limits on discretionary spending, according to people familiar with the conversations. Some of McCarthy’s deputies, however, made clear Thursday that they’re dreaming much bigger — 10 years, to be precise.

And anything less than that, the GOP lawmakers warned, might not land the votes.

“I would be surprised if a two-year deal could gain support of the conference,” Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) told Huddle. “A two-year deal would be hard to stomach for most members.”

Besides those spending caps, here’s the three other elements GOP leaders see coming together into a deal, according to Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), McCarthy’s de facto debt deputy — and how likely Democrats are to give any ground at this perilous stage.

1. Energy permitting: White House advisor John Podesta laid out Democrats’ own priorities on this earlier this week. Yet most on the Hill are highly skeptical. Can a deal be reached in just a handful of weeks? Most believe a larger deal comes later. Republicans (and some Democrats, like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia) want to streamline and expedite domestic energy production projects and ease permitting on pipelines and refineries. Democrats broadly agree that approving projects takes too long, but would rather focus on renewable projects.
2. Covid clawbacks: Graves said Republicans are feeling positive about the engagement they’re getting from the White House, with Biden himself seeming open earlier this week to pulling back unspent Covid relief funding. But a big fight is already brewing on exactly where they would wrestle that cash back from. There were at least six bills passed from 2020-2022 with COVID aid, which means plenty of opportunities for disagreement.
3. Work requirements: Democrats describe this to us as the least likely tenet of a deal. And as with permitting, anything on the legislative side would take a lot more than a few weeks to get into law. Biden is unlikely to agree to accept major new restrictions on programs like Medicaid and food assistance, but Republicans fought to expand the age group covered by work requirements for food stamps and Medicaid in their proposal.

Another big GOP ask — rescinding the Inflation Reduction Act — didn’t make it as one of Graves’ four tenets for a reason. Democrats have already said hell no.

Some veterans of the 2011 deal are sounding the warning about solving yet another debt ceiling crisis with spending caps.

“I saw what happened with sequestration back in 2011 and afterwards on that, so as an appropriator, I hope – careful on that,” Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) said.

He pointed out that Congress’s share of federal spending is a small fraction compared to the total U.S. budget: “We only deal with one third of the whole budget and the rest of it is automatic.”

Related reads: How environmental wonks may help Biden unlock the debt ceiling crisis, from Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan, Josh Siegel and Jennifer Haberkorn; Yellen plans to huddle with Wall Street bankers as default looms, from Sam Sutton and Ben White

GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, May 12, where it’s time to ask your colleagues about their battle scars from the the last debt ceiling brawl.

BORDER CRISIS — Democrats say they’re aware of the political implications of Title 42 expiring and the humanitarian crisis likely to follow. But interviews from Daniella and Burgess with more than a dozen Democratic senators revealed mixed messages about any bipartisan solutions that could address the issue. “This is ridiculous,” Manchin said in an interview. “I’ve signed on to the bill that I can sign on to, that I believe in, and I think there’s a lot that needs to be done. Whatever moves, I’m happy.” More here.

Related read: Both Biden and Trump sent troops to the border. That’s where the similarities end, from Lara Seligman, Joe Gould and Connor O’Brien

ANOTHER BORDER FIGHT — This one is at the ballot box. The most conservative House Democrat faced a serious primary challenge last cycle and progressive activists are committed to giving him another scare in 2024.

“Cuellar beat Jessica Cisneros, an immigrant lawyer, by fewer than 300 votes in a runoff election last cycle. And there is a sense on the ground that grassroots progressive organizing in the district is even stronger now,” reports Brittany Gibson.

NO CUTS — Top House Democrats are signaling in a letter to President Joe Biden they’ll reject major cuts to social programs amid negotiations over the debt limit.

“We support negotiations for Congress to pass a clean debt ceiling and separately reach a budget agreement that does not undermine the social safety net programs that our communities need,” wrote Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and a group of Democrats including Black Caucus chair Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Hispanic Caucus Chair Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), Asian Pacific American Caucus Chair Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.), and Poverty Task Force leadership Reps. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), and Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas). Read the letter.

Another debt limit letter: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) sent a Dear Colleague letter this morning with the same message he has had for months: “Take default off the table.” Read the letter.

VANCE’S WHIP COUNT — Sen. J.D. Vance doesn’t think his bipartisan rail safety bill will have any problem chugging past the 60 vote filibuster threshold. The bill is expected to get broad support among Democrats, who back stricter safety regulations for the industry. “We’ve got close to 10 at this point, and that’s without trying that hard,” the Ohio Republican said. Just seven GOP senators have publicly supported the measure but our colleague Tanya Snyder reported for Pros that Vance said “a dozen or more that are very much in play.”

THE WH MEETING THAT DID HAPPEN — So the debt limit meeting at the White House is off, but on Thursday Biden and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack met with a key, bipartisan group of lawmakers on the farm bill, as concerns escalate that the debt ceiling fight could sour the typically bipartisan farm bill.

Who went: House Agriculture Committee Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and John Boozman (Ark.), the top Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee, Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who is a member of Democratic leadership, and Georgia Rep. David Scott, the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.

“The Farm Bill is a jobs bill. It is a safety net for farmers and consumers, and it is an investment in our rural communities and the health of the American people. The Agriculture Committees have a long tradition of bipartisan cooperation, and we look forward to continuing that tradition through our work on the 2023 Farm Bill,” they said in a joint statement following the meeting.

World’s greatest deliberative body: House members might belong to the “lower chamber” but they’ve got burns of their own for their counterparts across the Capitol. Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) joked to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) when they bumped into each other in an elevator this week that she was trying to go to the “dark side” with her bid for the Senate. Slotkin, not to be outdone, joked that she is going to the “retirement home.” (Your Huddle hosts want to know if Burgess told her about the naps and the jello — IYKYK.)

Class photo kerfuffle: As the class photo was being taken Wednesday a bipartisan group of members wanted to be at the front, despite blocking others who were seated as instructed. McCarthy warned them four times, Huddle is told, and at one point someone else told them they had to move. The bipartisan group included some of the members who jockey for prime center-aisle spots at the State of the Union — you can probably guess a few.

Intern coordinator coordination: The Modernization Staff Association is hosting a training today at 3 p.m. on “how to manage and support interns, support their professional development, and strengthen your office’s internship program.” D.C. intern coordinators can RSVP here. State/District Office intern coordinators can RSVP here.

You should watch this: Presented without comment. (Really, it made one of your Huddle hosts laugh so hard she couldn’t breathe.)

QUICK LINKS

George Santos confesses to theft in Brazil to avoid prosecution, from Terrence McCoy, Marina Dias and Isaac Stanley-Becker at The Washington Post

Yellen Warns that the U.S. Will Be a “Deadbeat Country” if it defaults, from Bloomberg’s Daybreak Europe Podcast

Clash of styles as Colin Allred prepares to challenge Ted Cruz in 2024 race, from Matthew Choi at The Texas Tribune

House GOP election law overhaul may try to protect donors, Justin Papp at CQ Roll Call

TRANSITIONS

Ryan Keating is now federal government affairs director at Duke Energy. He previously was deputy chief of staff for Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).

Chris Fisk is now senior policy advisor to the Vice President. He most recently was policy adviser at the Senate HELP committee.

Jami Burgess, Sen. Maria Cantwell’s (D-Wash.) chief of staff since 2019, is taking on a new role of senior policy advisor at the Senate Commerce Committee. Burgess previously served as chief of staff to Rep. Denny Heck (D-Wash.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate is out.

AROUND THE HILL

Closing out a wild week, relatively quiet.

THURSDAY’S WINNER: Kat DesCamp-Renner correctly answered that Minnesota holds the distinction of having in its possession to this day, a battle flag captured from the 28th Virginia regiment during the Battle of Gettysburg.

TODAY’S QUESTION from Kat: In what year did the first openly LGBT governor assume office?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [email protected]

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus