When President Trump arrives in Wisconsin on Tuesday, he'll be going to a state he won four years ago but where he is the underdog in 2020 against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. 

Biden has held a polling lead in Wisconsin over Trump throughout the spring and summer. The RealClearPolitics average of polls in Wisconsin finds Biden with 48 percent compared to 44.5 percent for Trump. 

It’s a narrow lead for the former vice president, however, and political observers in the Badger state say Trump could easily pull off a win. 

Four years ago, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led Trump by a wider margin than Biden, and even held a 10-point advantage in a poll by Marquette University’s Law School in early August, right after the Democratic National Convention. 

“It seems foolish to think the conditions that hold today will dominate as we reach October and November,” said Charles Franklin, a professor of law and public policy and the director of the Marquette Law School poll. 

Wisconsin has taken center stage in the presidential race as Trump seeks to win election on a fierce law-and-order message that argues cities run by Democratic politicians are out of control. He’s seized on disturbances in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., the sight of clashes in the days following the shooting of Jacob Blake, who is Black, by a white police officer. Blake was shot seven times in the back. 

A few days later, two protesters were shot to death by a 17-year-old white man videoed running through Kenosha while holding a semi-automatic rifle. The suspect, Kyle Rittenhouse, was later videotaped walking with his hands up by police, who did not stop him. 

It’s too early to know how the Blake shooting and the protests will impact the presidential race in Wisconsin. Marquette’s last poll in the state in early August found Biden leading Trump, 50 percent to 46 percent. 

“Biden has an advantage and he's held on steadily, but 2016 taught us that races can change. It could move more in Biden's direction, and it could move in Trump’s direction,” Franklin said. “It could go either way.”

Biden on Monday condemned violence, saying in a speech that “looting is not protest.” He also criticized violence by police against Black people and blamed Trump for inciting violence.

“This president long ago forfeited any moral leadership in this country,” Biden said in Pittsburgh. “He can’t stop the violence because for years he’s fomented it.”

Trump is using Kenosha as his latest example of a city gone bad because of out-of-control protests, a point he will highlight with his visit on Tuesday, even after Kenosha’s mayor and Wisconsin’s governor pleaded with him to stay away. 

“If I didn’t INSIST on having the National Guard activate and go into Kenosha, Wisconsin, there would be no Kenosha right now,” Trump tweeted Monday. “Also, there would have been great death and injury. I want to thank Law Enforcement and the National Guard. I will see you on Tuesday.” 

The message that mob violence would come to communities around the nation was a central message in the Republican National Convention last week, and some unnerved Democrats are worried that it is working.

“They know exactly what they’re doing,” said one Democratic strategist. “They’re using Wisconsin as a test case to show the rest of America what could happen there, and Democrats don’t want to admit it but it’s probably working because no one wants mob violence in their communities.

“And I think Democrats should be scared shitless that we’re on the verge of losing Wisconsin again,” the strategist said.  

Biden campaign officials insist they have taken the state seriously. 

For starters, they have plastered every Wisconsin media market, including more conservative areas, with advertising since June. They also have “robust” grass-roots and organizing operations. During a recent “weekend of action,” more than 3,300 people volunteered for Biden at more than 275 virtual events where they reached out to more than 370,000 Wisconsin voters through text messages and phone calls.

“It’s like night and day,” Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) said in an interview, of the differences between the current cycle and 2016. “We had great frustration last time around.”

Pocan, who grew up in Kenosha, said Trump’s message won’t play well for a community that is healing.

“If you're going to come and fan the flames of division that’s not what we need right now,” he said.

Biden, who had been reluctant to travel to states because of the coronavirus pandemic, has also signaled he'd like to travel to states including Wisconsin in the coming weeks. "I'm checking it out now. We hope to be able to do that," he told reporters on Monday, following an event in Pittsburgh. 

Those close to the campaign say Biden will continue to accuse Trump of stoking divisions while also making the case that all of this happened under the president’s watch. 

“This is all on Trump,” said one ally close to the campaign. “I think those in Wisconsin understand that he has done nothing to heal tensions, especially in that state.” 

The ally pointed to the Marquette poll from August that showed just 32 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the protests over racial inequality and the death of George Floyd in police custody. 

At the same time, polling in Wisconsin is showing falling support for protests — which could be a warning sign for Biden. 

The Marquette poll found 48 percent of Wisconsin registered voters approve of the mass protests since the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May stunned the country and set off nationwide demonstrations. 

That’s a sharp fall from June, when 61 percent approved of the demonstrations in Wisconsin and 36 percent disapproved. 

Franklin said that he wouldn’t be surprised to see more of a downturn in the approval of the demonstrations in future surveys. 

At the same time, he added that while the Trump campaign has decided that the “law and order” strategy “is the message they want to be associated with and it plays well with their supporters, there’s less evidence it’s moving supporters in their direction.” 

Either way, the Democratic strategist said Biden needs to show more outwardly support in the state. 

“He needs to go there a few times,” the strategist said. “Or it'll show we never learned our lesson.”