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The man who is the most recent U.S. ambassador to Russia fears Moscow will treat Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH just like it has PAUL WHELAN.

Russia has dubiously charged the journalist with espionage, an allegation the WSJ denies. To have the FSB arrest Gershkovich, send him to Lefortovo prison and make such a serious allegation leads JOHN SULLIVAN to believe that his release, unfortunately, isn’t imminent.

“He has already been interrogated vigorously,” Sullivan speculated in an interview with NatSec Daily on Friday. “There’s no doubt that he will be tried and convicted,” even though Russia is unlikely to offer a shred of evidence that Gershkovich was a spy. Until then, the Kremlin won’t be open to any trade deal for his release. “I would not be optimistic that Evan is going to be released at a minimum until after the Russian judicial process has run.”

Sullivan, as the top U.S. envoy in Moscow from 2020 to 2022, spoke often in person with Whelan — also charged with spying — at Lefortovo. An FSB colonel would sit between the two of them, and everything Whelan and Sullivan said to each other would have to be translated into Russian before the other person could respond. The former diplomat, now at Georgetown University, expects Gershkovich and the new ambassador, LYNNE TRACY, will go through the same protocol.

But Russian authorities are unlikely to let Tracy see Gershkovich until the sham trial is complete. That could take weeks or months. “This is a big deal what’s happened, his being charged with espionage,” Sullivan told us. “They’re treating it like Paul Whelan’s case.”

Sullivan said Russia sees immense benefits to taking Gershkovich. It could improve the chances of securing the release of Russians detained in the United States. And it also allows Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN to underscore that his nation and the West are locked in a long struggle. “This is total war on his part,” Sullivan said.

Sullivan echoes the calls by the Biden administration for Americans to stay out of Russia for the time being. “I would not travel to Russia now unless I had diplomatic immunity,” he told NatSec Daily. “If they did it to Paul, they could do it to anybody.”

Meanwhile, on Friday President JOE BIDEN called on Russia to release Gershkovich, urging the Kremlin to “let him go.” The U.S. won’t expel Russian diplomats for the moment, the president continued before boarding a helicopter: “That’s not the plan right now.”

IT HAPPENED HERE, TOO: This is a national security newsletter, so we’re not going to touch the legal merits of former President DONALD TRUMP’s indictment. What we can say is this: the United States has long been an outlier when it comes to criminal cases against presidents.

Consider this from Axios last year: “In at least 76 countries, leaders who left office since 2000 have been jailed or prosecuted — including in democracies like France, Israel and South Korea,” DAVE LAWLER and IVANA SARIC wrote. “Since 1980, around half of the world’s countries have had at least one such case, and that’s not counting impeachments or coups.”

In other words, the case from the Manhattan D.A. doesn’t automatically make the U.S. a “THIRD WORLD NATION” or “Communist-level shit,” as Trump and his son would have supporters believe. In fact, something like this occurs in democracies with surprising regularity.

“In just the past 15 years, NICOLAS SARKOZY and JACQUES CHIRAC of France, PARK GEUN-HYE and LEE MYUNG-BAK of South Korea and SILVIO BERLUSCONI of Italy have all been prosecuted for corruption and found guilty. The list of those criminally charged also includes former democratically elected leaders of Argentina, Brazil, Pakistan, Peru, South Africa and Taiwan,” the New York Times’ RICHARD PÉREZ-PEÑA reports.

And even as he leads his nation, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU is on trial for corruption charges — potentially one of the reasons he supports the controversial judicial overhaul law that has seen Israel erupt in protest.

So, in the grand scheme of global politics, it’s actually odd that the U.S. hadn’t indicted a president until March 30, 2023, roughly 234 years since the Constitution was in operation. It’s what makes the moment all the more shocking.

RUSSIAN NUKES TO BELARUS?: Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO said Russia might send strategic nuclear weapons to the country, the Associated Press’ YURAS KARMANAU reports.

Part of Moscow’s tactical nuclear arsenal could also be deployed to Minsk, he said, confirming Putin’s remarks last week. The cooperation comes as the pair have strengthened their partnership amid the war in Ukraine, alleging that the West aims to destroy the two countries.

Lukashenko’s comments also coincide with Russian attacks, as missiles bombarded several parts of Ukraine early Friday. A pair of missiles hit the city of Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region, targeting eight residential buildings, the Associated Press’ ELENA BECATOROS and HANNA ARHIROVA report. Another nine missiles and exploding drones struck Kharkiv’s residential buildings, roads, gas stations and a prison. In total, two civilians were killed.

Putin also authorized a larger than normal spring draft on Thursday, equipping Moscow with a bigger pool of recruits to send into battle if needed, The New York Times’ JEFFREY GETTLEMAN reports. The target of conscripts this year is 147,000 young men — about 10 percent larger than usual.

FINLAND CLEARED: The Turkish parliament unanimously ratified Finland’s accession to NATO, effectively allowing Helsinki to join the military alliance without Sweden, our own LILI BAYER and LEYLA AKSU reported Thursday. Finland could now become a formal member of NATO within days.

NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said he hopes Sweden could follow suit in the summer, after Turkey’s presidential elections.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring MIKKO HAUTALA, Finland’s ambassador to the U.S. When he’s in the mood to drink — say, when his nation is on the verge of joining NATO — Hautala will enjoy Marshal Mannerheim’s Schnapps (he sent along this helpful Wiki page about it). It pairs well with Finnish licorice, he says.

And where to drink this most Finnish of drinks? “At the residence we always offer it with the first course. And during sauna!” he told NatSec Daily.

Kippis, ambassador!

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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PENCE’S RETALIATION: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE called on Biden to expel Russian diplomats from Washington if Gershkovich isn’t released today.

“It would be time to put some people on a plane” if Moscow doesn’t free the reporter within 24 hours, Pence told CNN’s WOLF BLITZER Thursday night when asked if he would expel all Russian diplomats.

The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board took a similar stance Thursday night, calling on the Biden administration to expel Moscow’s ambassador in Washington and Russian journalists in the U.S.

Due to the administration’s response to Russia downing a U.S. drone over the Black Sea this month, which many Republicans thought deserved a more aggressive response, Biden has to make clear that Washington won’t tolerate Russia’s aggression, Pence said.

“I think this is a moment for … the Biden administration to send a deafening message to Russia,” he said, warning that “there’s going to be real consequences in the relationship between the United States and Russia going forward” if the reporter isn’t released soon.

‘PRETTY WILD MISCONCEPTIONS’: Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) attempted to dispel “pretty wild misconceptions” about his legislation to combat TikTok’s influence in America, firing off nearly two dozen tweets Friday morning to set the record straight.

One such “myth” that has been circulating, the Senate Intelligence Committee chair wrote, is that the legislation unfairly targets TikTok, as other social media companies also gather user data that can be accessed by foreign countries. The RESTRICT Act allows the Biden administration to take action against the video-sharing platform, even possibly allowing a nationwide ban, due to worries that Beijing could access U.S. user data.

The legislation “is a framework to identify and study ALL foreign tech threats where a serious national security risk is presented,” Warner wrote. “A ban is on the table if – and only if – foreign companies pose a serious threat to our national security. The bill also allows for less drastic remedies if a full ban isn’t required – think privacy or corporate transparency requirements.”

CHINA’S CHIP REVIEW: Beijing launched a cybersecurity review of imports from America’s largest memory chipmaker, as the tech war between two countries presses on, Bloomberg’s IAN KING and PETER MARTIN report.

Micron Technology is now under China’s microscope. The move escalates trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, as the latter has already sought to stymie Chinese chip production through blacklisting tech firms and teaming up with other countries on chip restrictions.

LAUNCH DELAYED: SpaceX postponed its first attempt to launch Space Force Tranche 0 satellites on Friday — with three seconds left on the countdown clock, Space.com’s MIKE WALL reports.

“Standing down from today’s launch … to allow more time for vehicle preparations,” the company wrote in a tweet, adding that its next attempt out of the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California could come as soon as Saturday.

It wasn’t immediately clear what caused the delay. The 10 satellites, which cost $15 million each, will be used for data transport and missile tracking. They’re part of the “Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture” system, which will eventually include hundreds of satellites.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SHORT ON REPORTS: The top two lawmakers on SASC’s personnel panel sent a letter to the Pentagon demanding the delivery of long-overdue reports.

“Several requests for information, reports, and responses to previous letters requesting information that senators have yet to receive and that they raised with you and your colleagues during” a March 15 hearing, Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) wrote to GILBERT CISNEROS, DoD’s undersecretary for personnel and readiness.

Among the delayed or soon-to-be-due reports:

• Sen. TED BUDD (R-N.C.) wants an answer about DoD’s “reproductive health directives”
• Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.) seeks more info on “reservist compensation” by April 12.
• Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) would like “a written update on how the department considers mental health in its recruiting processes”

“In all cases the requests issued last week were at least the second if not in some cases the third time we have called upon the department to comply,” the lawmakers wrote.

NOT OUR GUY: We noted yesterday that the person the Treasury Department sanctioned for trying to broker an arms deal between Russia and North Korea, ASHOT MKRTYCHEV, is a Slovak national. Well, a senior Slovak official reached out to basically say: Hey, he’s not really one of ours.

“The sanctioned person was a rogue individual, originally from Azerbaijan, who obtained Slovak citizenship some time ago. Around 2002, he was indicted for ordering a murder and after being convicted for other charges, did some prison time in Slovakia,” said the official, who was granted anonymity because he’s not authorized to speak to the press. “Apparently, the only connection to Slovakia is his citizenship as he might be located out of country, from where he also probably conducted the sanctioned activities.”

Slovak authorities “are looking into this case,” the official continued. “There is a pattern of criminal activity of this individual.”

A reminder to never conduct illegal arms deals with a spare Slovak passport — Bratislava will disown you.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: TODD BREASSEALE is now leading the Office of Information Operations Policy for the asssistant secretary of defense for special operations/low-intensity conflict, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was deputy assistant to the secretary of defense for media in DoD public affairs and is an Obama DHS alum.

— MAURA REYNOLDS, POLITICO: Why the Journalist Arrested in Russia Won’t Be Another Brittney Griner

— MARLENE LARUELLE and IVAN GREK, The New York Times: Why Do Russians Still Want to Fight?

–– Editorial Board, The Washington Post: The Kremlin takes an American hostage. Again.

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: U.S. Policy and Taliban Rule in Afghanistan

— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:15 p.m.: How the U.S.-China Tech War Shapes State-Business Alignment

— The Hudson Institute, 2:30 p.m.: The China Challenge in the Middle East

— The Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: Game-changers or little-changed? Implications of ground combat in Ukraine

— The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: The Free World’s Response to a Sino-Taiwanese War

Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who would let Matt join NATO, but not Alex.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the true leader of this alliance.