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Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) defeated businessman Fred Hubbell (D), Jake Porter (L), and Gary Siegwarth (Clear Water Party of Iowa) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Iowa's governorship. Reynolds became governor in May 2017 after Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) resigned to become ambassador to China. Her running mate was Lieutenant Gov. Adam Gregg (R). Hubbell's running mate was state Sen. Rita Hart (D).
Heading into the election, Iowa had been a Republican trifecta since 2016 when Republicans won control of the Iowa State Senate. Republicans took control of the governorship and the Iowa House of Representatives in 2010.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Iowa state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.
Heading into the election, forecasters called the race a toss-up or said it slightly favored Democrats. Donald Trump (R) won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election. Barack Obama (D) won Iowa by 9.5 percentage points in 2008 and 5.7 percentage points in 2012. Two of Iowa's past 10 gubernatorial elections have resulted in the seat changing hands. In the 1998 election, the Democratic Party won the governorship for the first time since 1966. The party held the governorship until Branstad was elected in 2010 by 9.5 percentage points. Branstad was re-elected in 2014 by 21.5 percentage points.
Iowa was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Iowa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Kim Reynolds (R) | Fred Hubbell (D) | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa October 30-November 2, 2018 | Des Moines Register | 44% | 46% | 10% | +/-3.5 | 801 |
| University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll October 8-22, 2018 | N/A | 40% | 44% | 16% | +/-4.5 | 496 |
| Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa September 17-20, 2018 | Des Moines Register | 41% | 43% | 16% | +/-4.2 | 555 |
| Emerson College September 6-8, 2018 | N/A | 31% | 36% | 33% | +/-3.2 | 1,000 |
| AVERAGES | 39% | 42.25% | 18.75% | +/-3.85 | 713 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Iowa gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Iowa, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Terry Branstad/Kim Reynolds Incumbent |
59% | 666,023 | |
| Democratic | Jack Hatch/Monica Vernon | 37.3% | 420,778 | |
| Libertarian | Lee Hieb/Tim Watson | 1.8% | 20,319 | |
| New Independent Party | Jim Hennager/Mary Krieg | 0.9% | 10,582 | |
| Iowa Party | Jonathan Narcisse/Michael Richards | 0.9% | 10,239 | |
| Nonpartisan | Write-in votes | 0.1% | 1,093 | |
| Total Votes | 1,129,034 | |||
| Election results via Iowa Secretary of State | ||||
2010 Iowa gubernatorial general election
| Party | Candidate | Vote Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | Chet Culver | 42.85% | |
| Republican Party |  Terry E. Branstad
|
52.15% | |
| Socialist | Dave Rosenfeld | 0.24% | |
| Libertarian Party | Eric Cooper | 1.27% | |
| Independent | Jonathan Narcisse | 1.88% | |
| Independent | Gregory James Hughes | 0.34% | |
| Other | write-ins | 0.25% | |
| Other | spoilt ballots | 1.01% | |
| Total Votes | 1,131,434 | ||
Demographic data for Iowa
| Iowa | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 3,121,997 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 55,857 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.4% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 91.2% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 3.2% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 5.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 91.5% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 26.7% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,183 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 13.8% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Iowa. | ||
As of July 2016, Iowa's three largest cities were Des Moines (pop. est. 220,000), Cedar Rapids (pop. est. 130,000), and Davenport (pop. est. 100,000).
