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Missouri, U.S. Senate

Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) defeated U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and three others in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Missouri in the United States Senate.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Trump won Missouri by 18.5 percentage points in 2016. McCaskill's 2012 re-election was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Missouri. In that election, McCaskill defeated U.S. Rep. Todd Akin (R) by 15.7 percentage points. In the 2016 Senate election, incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) defeated Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) by 2.8 percentage points.


U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Josh Hawley (R) Claire McCaskill (D)Other/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Trafalgar Group
(October 29-November 4, 2018)
N/A 40%45%15%+/-2.31,791
Emerson College
(November 1-3, 2018)
N/A 49%46%5%+/-3.8732
Remington Research Group
(November 1-2, 2018)
Missouri Scout 47%47%6%+/-2.61,424
Marist University
(October 30-November 1, 2018)
NBC News 44%47%9%+/-5.2600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
(October 27-30, 2018)
Fox News 43%43%14%+/-3.5741
(October 26-27, 2018)
N/A 49%46%5%+/-4.38501
Remington Research Group
(October 24-25, 2018)
Missouri Scout 49%45%6%+/-2.61,376
OnMessage Inc.
(October 16-18, 2018)
Hawley campaign 49%42%9%+/-3.46800
Remington Research Group
(October 17-18, 2018)
Missouri Scout 47%46%7%+/-2.71,215
The Polling Company
(October 11-13, 2018)
Citizens United 50%47%3%+/-4.0600
1st Tuesday Campaigns
(October 5-6, 2018)
N/A 44%42%14%+/-3.021,052
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
(September 27- October 7, 2018)
N/A 45%44%11%+/-3.01,111
McLaughlin & Associates
(September 29- October 2, 2018)
Missouri Rising Action 52%44%4%+/-4.0600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
(September 29- October 2, 2018)
Fox News 43%43%13%+/-3.5805
AVERAGES 46.5% 44.79% 8.64% +/-3.43 953.43

U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Josh Hawley (R) Claire McCaskill (D)Other/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
SRSS Research
(September 25- 29, 2018)
CNN 44%47%9%+/-4.3756
Remington Research
(September 26- 27, 2018)
Missouri Scout 48%46%6%+/-2.51,555
(September 10- 14, 2018)
CBS News 45%45%10%+/-3.31,104
Trafalgar Group
September 11-13, 2018
N/A 47%44%8%+/-2.41,724
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 8-11, 2018
Fox News 41%44%15%+/-3.5675
Marist University
August 25-28, 2018
NBC News 40%44%16%+/-4.8568
WPA Intelligence
August 12-14, 2018
Club for Growth 48%41%11%+/-4.4501
TJP Strategies
August 8-9, 2018
Missouri Scout 47%47%6%+/-2.31,785
Remington Research
July 7-8, 2018
The Missouri Times 48%46%6%+/-3.21,034
May 16, 2018
Petersen campaign 50%43%7%+/-3.4822
OnMessage Inc.
April 16-18, 2018
Hawley campaign 46%47%7%+/-4.0600
Mason-Dixon Poll
April 4-6, 2018
N/A 44%45%11%+/-4.0625
Public Policy Polling
January 8-9, 2018
The Majority Institute 44%45%11%+/-3.2965
Remington Research
January 3-4, 2018
Missouri Scout 49%45%6%+/-2.91,112
AVERAGES 45.79% 44.93% 9.21% +/-3.44 987.57

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Claire McCaskill Democratic Party $37,714,658 $38,254,850 $241,329 As of December 31, 2018
Josh Hawley Republican Party $11,946,032 $11,470,517 $475,515 As of December 31, 2018
Craig O'Dear Independent $634,715 $622,114 $12,602 As of December 31, 2018
Japheth Campbell Libertarian Party $1,785 $1,784 $0 As of November 26, 2018
Jo Crain Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Election history


U.S. Senate, Missouri General Election, 2016

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Blunt Incumbent 49.2% 1,378,458
Democratic Jason Kander 46.4% 1,300,200
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2.4% 67,738
Green Johnathan McFarland 1.1% 30,743
Constitution Fred Ryman 0.9% 25,407
N/A Write-in 0% 95
Total Votes 2,802,641
Source: Missouri Secretary of State


U.S. Senate, Missouri, General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngClaire McCaskill Incumbent 54.8% 1,494,125
Republican Todd Akin 39.1% 1,066,159
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 6.1% 165,468
Write-in Ted Kimzey 0% 15
Write-in Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. 0% 9
Write-in William Dean 0% 6
Write-in Bernie Mowinksi 0% 5
Write-in Charlie L. Bailey 0% 4
Write-in Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff 0% 2
Total Votes 2,725,793
Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"


Demographic data for Missouri

Total population:6,076,204316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):68,7423,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
Black/African American:11.5%12.6%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
High school graduation rate:88.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.1%29.8%
Median household income:$48,173$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Missouri.

As of July 2016, Missouri's three largest cities were Kansas City (pop. est. 488,943), St. Louis (pop. est. 308,626), and Springfield (pop. est. 167,376).