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U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) in the general election for Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District on November 6, 2018.
This race was the only U.S. House match-up of two incumbent U.S. representatives in 2018. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state's congressional district map as an illegal partisan gerrymander in January and adopted a new map in February. Rothfus represented the old 12th District, while Lamb represented the old 18th District.
Pennsylvania's 17th contains portions of the old 3rd, 12th, 14th, and 18th Districts. President Donald Trump (R) won this new district by 2.5 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District, 2018
| Poll |  Conor Lamb |
 Keith Rothfus | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University October 5-8, 2018 | 54% | 42% | 4% | +/-5.2 | 354 |
| Monmouth University July 19-22, 2018 | 53% | 40% | 7% | +/-5.2 | 401 |
| AVERAGES | 53.5% | 41% | 5.5% | +/-5.2 | 377.5 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Lamb | Democratic Party | $9,121,009 | $8,882,454 | $238,554 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Keith Rothfus | Republican Party | $3,198,313 | $3,775,395 | $36,590 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Keith Rothfus | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State.
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
48.6% | Hillary Clinton |
47.9% | 0.7% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
52.1% | Mitt Romney |
46.7% | 5.4% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
54.7% | John McCain |
44.3% | 10.4% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
51.0% | George Bush |
48.5% | 2.5% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
50.6% | George Bush |
46.4% | 4.2% |
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Patrick Toomey |
48.8% | Katie McGinty |
47.3% | 1.5% |
| 2012 | Bob Casey |
53.7% | Tom Smith |
44.6% | 9.1% |
| 2010 | Patrick Toomey |
51.0% | Joe Sestak |
49.0% | 2.0% |
| 2006 | Bob Casey |
58.7% | Rick Santorum |
41.3% | 17.4% |
| 2004 | Arlen Specter |
52.6% | Joseph Hoeffel |
42.0% | 10.6% |
| 2000 | Rick Santorum |
52.4% | Ron Klink |
45.5% | 6.9% |
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.
Election results (Governor), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Tom Wolf |
54.9% | Thomas Corbett |
45.1% | 9.8% |
| 2010 | Thomas Corbett |
54.5% | Dan Onorato |
45.5% | 9.0% |
| 2006 | Ed Rendell |
60.4% | Lynn Swann |
39.6% | 20.8% |
| 2002 | Ed Rendell |
53.4% | Mike Fisher |
44.3% | 9.1% |
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Congressional delegation, Pennsylvania 2000-2016
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2014 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2012 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2010 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2008 | 7 |
36.8% | 12 |
63.2% | D+5 |
| 2006 | 8 |
42.1% | 11 |
57.9% | D+3 |
| 2004 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2002 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2000 | 11 |
52.4% | 10 |
47.6% | R+1 |
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2019
One year of a Democratic trifecta • 12 years of Republican trifectas
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographic data for Pennsylvania
| Pennsylvania | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 12,791,904 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 44,743 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 81.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 11% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 28.6% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,599 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 15.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania. | ||
As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).
