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Maryland, Governor

Incumbent Larry Hogan (R) defeated Ben Jealous (D), Shawn Quinn (L), and Ian Schlakman (G) in the general election for Governor of Maryland on November 6, 2018.

Out of the 10 preceding gubernatorial elections, eight were won by the Democratic candidate, with Republican candidates winning the 2002 and 2014 elections. Hogan was elected in 2014 by a 4-point margin over his Democratic opponent. The state had a Democratic trifecta for eight years before Hogan became governor, meaning Democrats controlled the governorship, state House, and state Senate.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won the state in the presidential election by 26 points. Democrats won Maryland in the five presidential elections before 2018, and Clinton's margin of victory was the widest.

As of September 2018, the race was rated Likely Republican by three ratings outlets.

The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. In Maryland, congressional district lines are adopted by the state legislature and may be vetoed by the governor.

Maryland was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.


Polls

Maryland governor 2018, Hogan v. Jealous

Poll Democratic Party Ben Jealous Republican Party Larry HoganUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
The Washington Post/University of Maryland
October 4-7, 2018
38%58%5%+/-4.5648
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
September 24-26, 2018
37%52%9%+/-4.0625
Goucher College
September 11-16, 2018
32%54%9%+/-3.4831
Gonzales Research & Media Services
August 1-8, 2018
36%52%11%+/-3.5831
AVERAGES 35.75% 54% 8.5% +/-3.85 733.75

A poll released on October 4, 2017, examined hypothetical matchups between sitting Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and four separate potential Democratic challengers. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey of 625 registered voters measured Hogan's possible electoral performance against Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker III, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, former NAACP President Ben Jealous, and state Sen. Rich Madaleno.

Maryland governor's race (Hogan vs. Jealous - hypothetical matchup)
Poll Ben Jealous Larry HoganUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Goucher College
(April 14-19, 2018)
31%44%23%+/-4.6449
Gonzales Research & Media Services
(December 27, 2017 - January 5, 2018)
36%49%15%+/-3.5823
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
(September 27-30, 2017)
33%49%18%+/-4.0625
AVERAGES 33.33% 47.33% 18.67% +/-4.03 632.33

Maryland governor's race (Hogan vs. Baker - hypothetical matchup)
Poll Rushern Baker III Larry HoganUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Goucher College
(April 14-19, 2018)
31%44%24%+/-4.6449
Burton Research & Strategies
(March 4-11, 2018)
29%54%15%+/-4600
Gonzales Research & Media Services
(December 27, 2017 - January 5, 2018)
37%47%16%+/-3.5823
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
(September 27-30, 2017)
39%46%15%+/-4.0625
AVERAGES 34% 47.75% 17.5% +/-4.03 624.25

Maryland governor's race (Hogan vs. Kamenetz - hypothetical matchup)
Poll Kevin Kamenetz Larry HoganUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Goucher College
(April 14-19, 2018)
28%45%24%+/-4.6449
Burton Research & Strategies
(March 4-11, 2018)
26%57%15%+/-4600
Gonzales Research & Media Services
(December 27, 2017 - January 5, 2018)
34%48%18%+/-3.5823
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
(September 27-30, 2017)
35%48%17%+/-4.0625
AVERAGES 30.75% 49.5% 18.5% +/-4.03 624.25

Maryland governor's race (Hogan vs. Madaleno - hypothetical matchup)
Poll Rich Madaleno Larry HoganUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Goucher College
(April 14-19, 2018)
27%45%27%+/-4.6449
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
(September 27-30, 2017)
30%49%21%+/-4.0625
AVERAGES 28.5% 47% 24% +/-4.3 537

Maryland governor's race (Hogan vs. Ross - hypothetical matchup)
Poll Alec Ross Larry HoganUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Goucher College
(April 14-19, 2018)
26%46%27%+/-4.6449

Maryland governor's race (Hogan vs. Shea - hypothetical matchup)
Poll Jim Shea Larry HoganUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Goucher College
(April 14-19, 2018)
27%47%26%+/-4.6449

Maryland governor's race (Hogan vs. Vignarajah - hypothetical matchup)
Poll Krishanti Vignarajah Larry HoganUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Goucher College
(April 14-19, 2018)
25%45%28%+/-4.6449

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican

Election history

2014

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLarry Hogan/Boyd Rutherford 51% 884,400
Democratic Anthony Brown/Ken Ulman 47.2% 818,890
Libertarian Shawn Quinn/Lorenzo Gaztanaga 1.5% 25,382
Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0.3% 4,505
Total Votes 1,733,177
Election results via Maryland State Board of Elections

2010

Maryland Gubernatorial/Lieutenant Gubernatorial General Election, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMartin O'Malley/Anthony G. Brown Incumbent 56.2% 1,044,961
Republican Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr./Mary Kane 41.8% 776,319
Libertarian Susan J. Gaztanaga/Doug McNeil 0.8% 14,137
Green Maria Allwine/Ken Eidel 0.6% 11,825
Constitution Eric Delano Knowles/Michael T. Hargadon 0.5% 8,612
Democratic Ralph Jaffe (Write-In) 0% 319
Unaffiliated Corrogan R. Vaughan/Jim Crawford 0% 179
Other Write-Ins Various 0.1% 1,528
Total Votes 1,857,880
Election results via Maryland State Board of Elections

Demographics

Demographic data for Maryland

MarylandU.S.
Total population:5,994,983316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):9,7073,531,905
Gender
Female:51.6%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:57.6%73.6%
Black/African American:29.5%12.6%
Asian:6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:3%3%
Hispanic/Latino:9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:37.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$74,551$53,889
Persons below poverty level:10.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Maryland.

As of July 2016, Maryland's three largest cities were Baltimore (pop. est. 611,648), Columbia (pop. est. 103,439), and Germantown (pop. est. 90,494).