Incumbent Larry Hogan (R) defeated Ben Jealous (D), Shawn Quinn (L), and Ian Schlakman (G) in the general election for Governor of Maryland on November 6, 2018.
Out of the 10 preceding gubernatorial elections, eight were won by the Democratic candidate, with Republican candidates winning the 2002 and 2014 elections. Hogan was elected in 2014 by a 4-point margin over his Democratic opponent. The state had a Democratic trifecta for eight years before Hogan became governor, meaning Democrats controlled the governorship, state House, and state Senate.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won the state in the presidential election by 26 points. Democrats won Maryland in the five presidential elections before 2018, and Clinton's margin of victory was the widest.
As of September 2018, the race was rated Likely Republican by three ratings outlets.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. In Maryland, congressional district lines are adopted by the state legislature and may be vetoed by the governor.
Maryland was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Maryland governor 2018, Hogan v. Jealous
|Poll||Ben Jealous||Larry Hogan||Undecided/Other||Margin of error||Sample size|
|The Washington Post/University of Maryland |
October 4-7, 2018
|Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy |
September 24-26, 2018
|Goucher College |
September 11-16, 2018
|Gonzales Research & Media Services |
August 1-8, 2018
A poll released on October 4, 2017, examined hypothetical matchups between sitting Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and four separate potential Democratic challengers. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey of 625 registered voters measured Hogan's possible electoral performance against Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker III, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, former NAACP President Ben Jealous, and state Sen. Rich Madaleno.
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, 2014
Maryland Gubernatorial/Lieutenant Gubernatorial General Election, 2010
Demographic data for Maryland
As of July 2016, Maryland's three largest cities were Baltimore (pop. est. 611,648), Columbia (pop. est. 103,439), and Germantown (pop. est. 90,494).