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Tennessee, U.S. Senate


U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) defeated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) along with six Independent candidates in the general election for the United States Senate seat from Tennessee on November 6, 2018.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Sen. Bob Corker (R), who was first elected in 2006, did not seek re-election in 2018. In September 2018, CNN called this race the single most important Senate race in the country. Satellite groups supporting Blackburn spent about $7 million through early October. Groups supporting Bredesen spent roughly $3.6 million. Election forecasters predicted this race to be competitive.

The Independent candidates running were Trudy Austin, John Carico, Dean Hill, Kevin Lee McCants, Breton Phillips, and Kris Todd.

Polls

U.S. Senate in Tennessee, General election

Poll Phil Bredesen (D) Marsha Blackburn (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
East Tennessee State University
October 22-29, 2018
44%44%12%+/-4.0610
SSRS
October 24-29, 2018
45%49%6%+/-4.3764
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
October 27-30, 2018
41%50%5%+/-3.0850
Marist Poll
October 23-27, 2018
46%51%4%+/-4.0910
Vanderbilt University
October 8-13, 2018
44%43%12%+/-4.9800
Reuters
October 4-11, 2018
44%47%10%+/-3.41,108
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 7-11, 2018
40%54%6%+/-4.2593
YouGov
October 2-5, 2018
42%50%8%+/-3.41,002
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
September 29-October 2, 2018
43%48%10%+/-3.5806
Triton Polling and Research
September 10-12, 2018
45%48.3%6.7%+/-3.01,038
SSRS
September 11-15, 2018
50%45%5%+/-4.3723
NBC News/Marist
August 25-28, 2018
48%46%6%+/-5.1538
Gravis
August 9-11, 2018
44%48%8%+/-3.9620
Public Policy Polling
July 10-11, 2018
44%41%15%+/-4.1583
Middle Tennessee State University
March 22-29, 2018
45%35%20%+/-4.0600
Garin-Hart-Yang (commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee)
October 20-22, 2017
46%41%13%+/-4.1601

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Phil Bredesen Democratic Party $19,621,772 $19,461,777 $159,996 As of December 31, 2018
Marsha Blackburn Republican Party $14,634,620 $16,572,478 $614,100 As of December 31, 2018
Breton Phillips Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available
Dean Hill Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available
John Carico Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available
Kevin Lee McCants Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available
Kris Todd Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available
Trudy Austin Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Election history

2014

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLamar Alexander Incumbent 61.9% 850,087
Democratic Gordon Ball 31.9% 437,848
Independent Ed Gauthier 0.2% 2,314
Independent Bartholomew Phillips 0.2% 2,386
Independent C. Salekin 0.1% 787
Independent Danny Page 0.6% 7,713
Independent Eric Schechter 0.1% 1,673
Constitution Joe Wilmoth 2.6% 36,088
Independent Joshua James 0.4% 5,678
Independent Rick Tyler 0.4% 5,759
Tea Party Tom Emerson, Jr. 0.8% 11,157
Green Martin Pleasant 0.9% 12,570
Write-in Erin Kent Magee 0% 5
Total Votes 1,374,065
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics"

2012

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBob Corker Incumbent 64.9% 1,506,443
Democratic Mark E. Clayton 30.4% 705,882
Constitution Kermit Steck 0.8% 18,620
Green Martin Pleasant 1.7% 38,472
Libertarian Shaun E. Crowell 0.9% 20,936
Independent David Gatchell 0.3% 6,523
Independent Michael Joseph Long 0.3% 8,085
Independent Troy Stephen Scoggin 0.3% 8,080
Total Votes 2,320,189
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Demographics

Demographic data for Tennessee

TennesseeU.S.
Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
Gender
Female:51.3%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
Asian:1.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,219$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.

As of July 2016, Tennessee's three largest cities were Nashville-Davidson (pop. est. 667,885), Memphis (pop. est. 652,236), and Knoxville (pop. est. 187,347).