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State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) defeated Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), businessman Greg Orman (I), and four other candidates in the general election on November 6, 2018, for governor of Kansas.
Incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), who took office following Brownback's resignation in January 2018 to serve as ambassador-at-large for International Religious Freedom, ran for a full term but was defeated by Kobach in the August 7 primary, leaving the seat open. Of the state's preceding 10 gubernatorial elections, a Republican candidate won five and a Democratic candidate won five. In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 21 percentage points.
Orman, whose campaign staff included outgoing Gov. Colyer's campaign manager, was identified by political observers as a likely factor in the race's eventual outcome. Political commentators suggested that Orman's presence on the ballot was more helpful to Kobach than to Kelly, noting the breakdown of the state's voter registration. Republicans made up 44 percent of the state's registered voters, while unaffiliated voters made up 31 percent and Democrats made up 24 percent.
Kelly's victory broke the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the election, Kansas had been under a Republican trifecta since Gov. Sam Brownback (R) took office in 2011. The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Kansas state law, the governor may veto congressional and state legislative district maps proposed by the state legislature.
Third party, independent, and write-in candidates included Libertarian nominee Jeff Caldwell, independent candidate Rick Kloos, and write-in candidates Aaron Coleman and Theophilus Floyd.
Kansas was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Governor of Kansas, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Laura Kelly (D) | Kris Kobach (R) | Jeff Caldwell (L) | Rick Kloos (I) | Greg Orman (I) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College (October 26-28, 2018) | N/A | 43% | 44% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 4% | +/-3.3 | 976 |
| Ipsos (October 17-27, 2018) | Thomson Reuters University of Virginia | 43% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 7% | +/-3.6 | 986 |
| Public Policy Polling (October 19-20, 2018) | Western States Strategies | 41% | 41% | 2% | 0% | 10% | 6% | +/-3.7 | 698 |
| Remington Research Group (September 30 - October 1, 2018) | Kansans for Jobs and Opportunity | 42% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 4% | +/-2.4 | 1,680 |
| Emerson College (September 26-28, 2018) | N/A | 36% | 37% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 18% | +/-3.5 | 938 |
Governor of Kansas, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Laura Kelly (D) | Kris Kobach (R) | Jeff Caldwell (L) | Rick Kloos (I) | Greg Orman (I) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs (September 21-24, 2018) | Crawford County Democratic Party | 41% | 39% | 5% | 0% | 9% | 5% | +/-3.4 | 1,178 |
| Public Policy Polling (September 12-13, 2018) | Pottawatomie County Democratic Party | 38% | 39% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 12% | +/--- | 618 |
| Fort Hays State University (August 22 - September 25, 2018) | N/A | 40% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 14% | +/--- | 328 |
| Public Policy Polling (August 24-26, 2018) | Kansas National Education Association | 38% | 39% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 11% | +/--- | 877 |
Kansas governor 2018, hypothetical general election matchup: Kelly vs. Kobach vs. Orman
| Poll | Laura Kelly (D) | Kris Kobach (R) | Greg Orman | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (July 19-20) | 36% | 35% | 12% | 17% | +/-2.85 | 1,189 |
Kansas governor 2018, hypothetical general election matchup: Kelly vs. Colyer vs. Orman
| Poll | Laura Kelly (D) | Jeff Colyer (R) | Greg Orman | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (July 19-20) | 28% | 38% | 10% | 24% | +/-2.85 | 1,189 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean Republican | Lean Republican |
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Kansas, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Sam Brownback/Jeff Colyer Incumbent |
49.8% | 433,196 | |
| Democratic | Paul Davis/Jill Docking | 46.1% | 401,100 | |
| Libertarian | Keen Umbehr/Josh Umbehr | 4% | 35,206 | |
| Total Votes | 869,502 | |||
| Election results via Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
Kansas Governor, 2010
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Sam Brownback |
63.3% | 530,760 | |
| Democratic | Tom Holland | 32.2% | 270,166 | |
| Libertarian | Andrew P. Gray | 2.7% | 22,460 | |
| Reform Party | Ken Cannon | 1.8% | 15,397 | |
| Write-in | Heath Charles Morris | 0% | 7 | |
| Total Votes | 838,790 | |||
| Election results via Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
