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Kansas, Governor

State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) defeated Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), businessman Greg Orman (I), and four other candidates in the general election on November 6, 2018, for governor of Kansas.

Incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), who took office following Brownback's resignation in January 2018 to serve as ambassador-at-large for International Religious Freedom, ran for a full term but was defeated by Kobach in the August 7 primary, leaving the seat open. Of the state's preceding 10 gubernatorial elections, a Republican candidate won five and a Democratic candidate won five. In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 21 percentage points.

Orman, whose campaign staff included outgoing Gov. Colyer's campaign manager, was identified by political observers as a likely factor in the race's eventual outcome. Political commentators suggested that Orman's presence on the ballot was more helpful to Kobach than to Kelly, noting the breakdown of the state's voter registration. Republicans made up 44 percent of the state's registered voters, while unaffiliated voters made up 31 percent and Democrats made up 24 percent.

Kelly's victory broke the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the election, Kansas had been under a Republican trifecta since Gov. Sam Brownback (R) took office in 2011. The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Kansas state law, the governor may veto congressional and state legislative district maps proposed by the state legislature.

Third party, independent, and write-in candidates included Libertarian nominee Jeff Caldwell, independent candidate Rick Kloos, and write-in candidates Aaron Coleman and Theophilus Floyd.

Kansas was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.

Polls

Governor of Kansas, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Laura Kelly (D) Kris Kobach (R)Jeff Caldwell (L)Rick Kloos (I)Greg Orman (I)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Emerson College
(October 26-28, 2018)
N/A 43%44%0%0%8%4%+/-3.3976
Ipsos
(October 17-27, 2018)
Thomson Reuters
University of Virginia
43%41%0%0%9%7%+/-3.6986
Public Policy Polling
(October 19-20, 2018)
Western States Strategies 41%41%2%0%10%6%+/-3.7698
Remington Research Group
(September 30 - October 1, 2018)
Kansans for Jobs and Opportunity 42%41%2%1%10%4%+/-2.41,680
Emerson College
(September 26-28, 2018)
N/A 36%37%0%0%9%18%+/-3.5938

Governor of Kansas, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Laura Kelly (D) Kris Kobach (R)Jeff Caldwell (L)Rick Kloos (I)Greg Orman (I)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Civiqs
(September 21-24, 2018)
Crawford County Democratic Party 41%39%5%0%9%5%+/-3.41,178
Public Policy Polling
(September 12-13, 2018)
Pottawatomie County Democratic Party 38%39%1%2%9%12%+/---618
Fort Hays State University
(August 22 - September 25, 2018)
N/A 40%36%0%0%10%14%+/---328
Public Policy Polling
(August 24-26, 2018)
Kansas National Education Association 38%39%1%2%9%11%+/---877


Kansas governor 2018, hypothetical general election matchup: Kelly vs. Kobach vs. Orman

Poll Laura Kelly (D) Kris Kobach (R)Greg OrmanUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Remington Research Group
(July 19-20)
36%35%12%17%+/-2.851,189

Kansas governor 2018, hypothetical general election matchup: Kelly vs. Colyer vs. Orman

Poll Laura Kelly (D) Jeff Colyer (R)Greg OrmanUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Remington Research Group
(July 19-20)
28%38%10%24%+/-2.851,189

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upLean RepublicanLean Republican

Election history

2014

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Kansas, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSam Brownback/Jeff Colyer Incumbent 49.8% 433,196
Democratic Paul Davis/Jill Docking 46.1% 401,100
Libertarian Keen Umbehr/Josh Umbehr 4% 35,206
Total Votes 869,502
Election results via Kansas Secretary of State

2010

Kansas Governor, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSam Brownback 63.3% 530,760
Democratic Tom Holland 32.2% 270,166
Libertarian Andrew P. Gray 2.7% 22,460
Reform Party Ken Cannon 1.8% 15,397
Write-in Heath Charles Morris 0% 7
Total Votes 838,790
Election results via Kansas Secretary of State